Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Let's Try Our Best!

Update: Due to 2 of my choices' share price are less than 20 cents (1 of them being the unstated new Big Idea), they are not part of the stock list. Instead, I will substitute them with 2 other Big Ideas that seem to be on a downtrend.

I had joined SGX Bull Charge Stock Challenge competition, which will start tomorrow.

Image Taken From InvestingNote
Although I have stated previously that I will just join for fun and doubt that I will win, but since I have registered, I decided that I should just try my best.

But how should a long term investor be investing for just 2.5 months?

My Strategy:

Firstly, I will still be sticking to my Big Ideas Investing Theory strategy. This is because I don't think an investor can change their strategy in such a short time.

Furthermore, if I purposely change my strategy just to suit this competition, I feel I will be "cheating" myself and my readers.

Secondly, having already released my 9 Big Ideas and, out of the 9 Big Ideas, 3 of them will be releasing their full year report during this competition period. Thus, I will be investing in these 3 Big Ideas for this competition. If the results are great, it will be allow the share price to rise significantly.

Thirdly I will also be investing in a 4th company for the competition. This is a company which I had long invested in but only deem it as a Big Idea recently. So if you follow me on this competition, you will then know which company is this new Big Idea.

Lastly I will break the $50k evenly into the 4 Big Ideas. Thus, if any of the 4 Big Ideas performs badly, my portfolio will not drop significantly.

In Short

With this strategy, I hope I will not linger at the bottom of leadership board.

Do note that this 4 companies currently contribute about 24% of my actual portfolio. If the above strategy perform well, it will also do good for my actual portfolio.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now! 

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Sunday, August 12, 2018

Update For My Readers


There is just not enough time for the roles that I am currently taking on – Blogger, Co-founder of Fundamental Scorecard and Investor/Fund Manager.

Furthermore, I will also be working in a new fintech environment next month. With this change, I am trying to catch up on my reading to gain more knowledge in this new area. This is a new challenge for me and I am really looking forward to it.

And… I will also be having a new collaboration soon!

With limited resources (time), I seem to be too diversified - similar to my past portfolio. With each additional role, less time is spent in the previous role, resulting in producing lower quality "products".

If I want to improve, I will need to be more focus.

With this new perspective, I decided that I will be putting more effort towards my Fundamental Scorecard subscribers as well as on the new collaboration that I am working on. (For the new offerings, I guess only the subscribers will eventually know.)

NEVERTHELESS, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT I AM GIVING UP ON BLOGGING.

Basically, what I intend to do is that I will be writing around 4 articles maximum a month (Currently, I try to write 6 to 8 articles a month), which will then give me more time to do research. I hope this will eventually translate to better quality articles. 

Eventually I hope you will still benefit from my sharing and continue to "waste" you time here wisely.

Thank you for reading.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now! 

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Sunday, August 5, 2018

My Faith Has Paid Off

Today, I will like to talk about my holding in Quarterhill Inc.

Before I continue on the main topic, I like to inform the readers that I will be joining the SGX Bull Charge Stock Challenge. Although I maybe putting my reputation on the line, and I will most probably lose as the tracking period is only 2.5 months, but I will just join for the fun of it. I will try my Big Ideas Theory Strategy with a slight tweak for this competition. In view of this, I will probably reveal some of my Big Ideas. Stay tuned!

Image Taken From InvestingNote

Back to Quarterhill Inc...

As per Wikipedia, Quarterhill Inc. (Quarterhill) is formerly known as WiLan Inc., and it is a Canadian public technology holding company, based in Ottawa, Ontario. It was founded in 1992 as a wireless technology company. In the mid-2000s, it gradually transitioned into a patent licensing company. In 2017, it renamed itself Quarterhill, and is attempting to become a holding company specializing in the Internet of Things. It is listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange and NASDAQ.

In summary, Quarterhill share price has been on the downtrend since the start of the year. This is because the earning for the last 2 quarters has been below expectation and huge losses were incurred in the last quarter.

Screenshot from Seekingalpha
When I first purchased this company, it was at a share price of US$1.9+. Over time, I had to average down more than 3 times in order to achieve a much more acceptable share price.

So what has kept my faith in Quarterhill? 

1. Positive Free-Cash-Flow - Despite making losses, the company is still able to generate high amount of Free-Cash-Flow.

2. Strong Balance Sheet With No Debt - Based on its latest financials, the company has a current ratio of over 4.11x and only a gearing ratio of 0.15x without any debt!

3. Margin Of Safety Over Its DCF Valuation - There is significant margin of safety from my calculated DCF Valuation, despite indicating no growth and high discount rate of 20%!

4. Transcript Of Management Discussion - I have gone through the transcript of the management discussion at least 3 times. There are many indications that have showcased the management is positive about its performance this year!

Thus, it was basically the theory of my Ultimate Scorecard as well as my belief in fundamental investing that has kept my faith in the company.

In Short

My faith was duly rewarded recently. The share price have regain and bounced back over 29% due to the following:

Screenshot from Seekingalpha
To sum up, if we invested fundamentally, we should not be worried about the short term changes in the share price. This is because time will eventually show that who is right.

Please do your own due diligence before you invest this counter.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now! 

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Thursday, July 26, 2018

Updates To Big Idea 3

After my update to Big Idea 2, I decided to also do an update on Big Idea 3 after re-reading its annual report.

Big Idea 3's Chairman always give a very insightful context in his Chairman's Statement. Last year, he initiated a cautious approach, but the results turn out to be very different - which is great. Because this shows that the management is not aggressive and have a plan for the future. In fact their numbers tie in with their execution - showing successful integration of the strategy in the business.

This year, here are some extract from the Chairman's Statement that got me excited for the future:

"...As we begin a new phase of network enhancements and measured retail expansion, coupled with our overall inventory having been rightsized to our desired level of stock turnover, it is highly probable that this pace of cash generation will begin to moderate in the coming year..."

"...The luxury watch market has enjoyed a pronounced turnaround in the last 12 months - driven by a strong global economy and revived demand from Chinese shoppers..."

"...This positive uptrend continued in 2018, with like-for-like exports rising 10.1% in the first quarter..."

"...We expect the upturn to continue for the next 12 to 18 months..."

"...Despite the good news, the watch industry is still in the process of undergoing substantial change..."

"...Several notable developments in online retailing for luxury watches have taken place in 2017, and this is only the beginning..."

"...And for third party retailers like <Big Idea 3>, the only way to ensure long term success is for us to forge indelible partnerships with the right brands..."

"...Whilst the industry’s focus is on creating a digital response to the disruption that technology and e-commerce are having on the future of the watch world, our response has been to spend the past nine months rebooting our attitudes and approach towards client facing interactions. How, and how often we engage our clients, and the service experience we provide them to gain more understanding of their needs and form even greater intimacy with those customers. We do this because we acknowledge what Four Seasons founder Isadore Sharp has often repeated, “The simple idea that if you treat people well, the way you would like to be treated, they will do the same.” It is therefore our organisational desire to build a high and consistent standard in every one of our boutiques within our entire retail network, with aspirations to be the Four Seasons of the specialist luxury watch retail industry..."

That's all the highlight of the Chairman's Statement.

It basically explains the next quarter will still be positive and this environment could continue at least another 9 Months. But change will still continue to occur in this industry and companies within this industry has to be prepared.

It also state Big Idea 3 will continue with its strategy as per last year and continue the good work done.

In Short

Despite some investors doubting my choice of this company as a Big Idea 3, I still believe, with an sustainable strategy in place and an excellent management that is able to execute the plan, my choice of listing this company as a Big Idea is a correct one.

Nevertheless, in investing, numbers still speak louder than words. In addition, the last quarter of 2017, the company had performed slightly worse off than its biggest competitor despite leading it for the first 3 quarters of 2017. As of now, I will just have to continue to keep a look out on its next quarterly report.

Please do your own due diligence before you invest this counter (if you knew what it is).

If you are interested to know how to measure a moat, do sign up with us to get the latest score of  the moat of all the SGX counters now! At only $10 a month!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Tuesday, July 24, 2018

Updates To Big Idea 2

Recently I spoken to this acquaintance that was quite knowledgeable on the Australia side of things. I always wonder why Big Idea 2 has a significant exposure in Australia. Thus, this gave me an opportunity to ask more about the property market in Australia and especially those projects relating to Big Idea 2.

Picture taken from britannica.com
Below are the information I remembered. Do note that I did not verify all the information and these are just pieces of our conversation.

1. The Australia Government made it hard to purchase properties in the country (read article).

2. Australians are not good savers and due to Basel ruling, banks are unable to lend out too much.

3. On the other hand, Australia Banks are also very conservative. During GFC, these banks had almost no exposure. However, being conservative, they also did not “go out and grab more market share”.

4. The big 4 Australia Banks also supports New Zealand. Due to regulations and restrictions, these 2 countries can already provide them A$20Bn of net profit. That is why they can continue to stay within their boundaries.

5. Australia is self-sufficient due to their huge amount of resources. They can ignore the world.

6. In Australia market, everyone is mostly after yield. No one should expect huge capital gains. It's a market for capital preservation rather than making significant gains.

In Short

With the above information, I became more aware of why Big Idea 2 is interested to invest/expose itself in Australia. This is because, overall, Big Idea 2 is a conservative company. From my understanding, its’ management does not take big risk. This knowledge have strengthen my view on Big Idea 2.

Big Idea 2 will be announcing their Full Year Results in August and I am looking forward to a better set of results.

But at the same time, I do not think there will be special dividend this year. This could potentially reduce the share price gain despite possibility of having a good full year results. 

Please do your own due diligence before you invest this counter.

If you are interested to know how to measure a moat, do sign up with us to get the latest score of  the moat of all the SGX counters now! At only $10 a month!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.