Sunday, January 31, 2016

Target Price During This Crazy Time

When Japan announced that they are adopting negative interest rate, I decided that a new era has arrived. Imagine lending $100k to expand your business, and after 5 years, you only need to return $100k or maybe slight higher. Cost of borrowing will have really gone down for the corporates and even the savers. Individuals, who are savers, will have to find alternatives to get more return.

Stock Market around the world has been very volatile - I really don't know what will happen tomorrow.

Instead of doing an analysis individually, I rush through the weekend to finish this - Analyse on the stocks I am interested to invest in and find the target price I should enter for that stock.

Do note that minimum input was done and business analysis was put aside. The review was just done on the financials. 

And also, a mindset was required for this analysis - "Every stock will have an entry price. It is just a matter of how far it is or how near it is from its current price."

Pass Triple S Scorecard 
- Able to buy at Current Price. 
- Expected Entry Price is to have more buffer as margin of safety. 
- Entry Price is calculated against one of the factors (NCAV, NAV, 5 year average PE, PS, Current PE)
- If my hand itchy, I may still buy them at a higher price.

Bukit Sembawang - Current Price [4.38] Expected Entry [3.6 to 4]
Sin Ghee Huat - Current Price [0.240] Expected Entry [0.2]
TTJ - Current Price [0.265] Expected Entry [0.235]
Chuan Hup Holding - Current Price [0.265] Expected Entry [0.195 to 0.240]
Hock Lian Seng - Current Price [0.390] Expected Entry [0.370]
PNE Industries - Current Price [0.570] Expected Entry [0.540]
LHT - Current Price [0.455] Expected Entry [0.400]
Fischer Tech - Current Price [0.910] Expected Entry [0.850]

Failed Triple S Scorecard but Entry Price will pass Triple S Scorecard
- Expected Entry Price will allow the stock to pass Triple S Scorecard
- Hand cannot be itchy for these stocks.

UPP - Current Price [0.158] Expected Entry [0.115]
Baker Technology - Current Price [0.175] Expected Entry [0.145]

Failed Triple S Scorecard but still can buy because of Business Model/Blue Chips
- Blue Chips
- Entry Price is calculated against one of the factors (NCAV, NAV, 5 year average PE, PS, Current PE)
- If my hand itchy, I may still buy them at a higher price.

M1 - Current Price [2.31] Expected Entry [1.75]
SingTel - Current Price [3.51] Expected Entry [3 to 3.2]
Ocbc Bank - Current Price [7.92] Expected Entry [7.25 to 7.4]

Anyway I will most probably buy more of those stocks that is already in my portfolio to average down my entry price.

I still have another list of stocks that I have yet to analyse. Watch out for it!

(It is interesting that I get more excited during this year when I look at the stock market, than the time during April last year.)

If you want to look at certain stock write up, you can email me too!

If you are interested in the Triple S Scorecard, do email or contact me via our T.U.B Investing Facebook Page.

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Tuesday, January 26, 2016

M1 - The First Trial On A Blue-Chip

I will be using M1 as the first company to test my Triple S Scorecard.

Profile In Short

If you do not know what M1 does or is, you do not know Singapore enough.

In simple terms, M1 is still one of the only 3 telecommunication companies in Singapore.

Based On Triple S Scorecard:

Why So Good?

Defensive Stock - Telecom Companies are deem as defensive stocks, due to their business model. It will always have business and its customer are locked up with them for at least 2 years (due to signing up a 2 year mobile plan with M1).

1 of the only 3 Established Telecommunications Company in Singapore - Despite announcement of a 4th Teleco coming along the way, it has been stated widely that M1 may AT MOST LOSS 20% of the revenue. This is due to the fact that Teleco industry has a high barrier to entry. Having established in Singapore for such a LONG TIME, M1 already an established infrastructure.

High Dividend Yield, Dividend Payout Company - M1 is a company that promises high dividend payout (at least 80%) and as per Triple S Scorecard, based on the current price, it is also provides a high dividend yield of at least 8%.

Strong and Consistent Earning Power - M1 has been able to achieve a high profit margin over the last 5 years. Over the next 2 years, its earning maybe impacted. But I believe it will still be in the range of 10%.

Why So Bad?

Singapore Mobile Population Penetration Rate - In June 2014, the penetration rate is 153.9% - Which meant each person has about 1.5 mobile line. How many mobile does 1 person need? Thus, the market seem saturated at this moment. Rather than getting more customers, M1 has to protect its current customers from changing mobile providers.

Low iPhone Subsidies - This is just an observation. It seems that IPhone subsidies for 2 year mobile plans seem to be at a low. Their handset price for a minimum amount (below $50 per month) is higher than Singtel or Starhub.

Weak Balance Sheet - From the Triple S Scorecard, the company has a weak balance sheet. This should not be different from Singtel or Starhub. How the company will perform in the stock market will be determine by its earning power.

In Short

I did not go into detail of the earning when I was inputting the details. Thus, this analysis was done very quickly. Nevertheless, the analysis allowed me to understand that M1 stock price should be based solely from its earning power/business model and not its asset value. This should be the same for other blue chips as well.

Looking at the analysis of the earning power, a price of 1.75 should be a great price to enter (Average 5 year PE will be below 10 & PS will be below 1.5).

Current Price: 2.240 as of 26 Jan 2016

Please do your own due diligence before you invest in this stock.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

FINAL Update In My Strategy

What is happening in the market next - How will I know?

Read the post here and here on my previous view of my strategy.

STI has failed to break the 2500 points on Friday and instead rises 44.39 points to 2577.09 points.

Some said this is due to the announcement of QE by China and Europe. Others said that it is because the market is oversold. There are also people saying QE is poison and that the economy is still in dire state.

One of my friend even stated - "Do you know that Hang Seng Index is trading below its Net Asset Value?" (Read here) Then again, isn't Asset Value self-determined too?

It is so confusing.

So I have decided - Why bother thinking what the market is thinking? Lets not waste our brain cells.

I will just look for stocks that pass Triple S Scorecard.

Because stocks that pass Triple S Scorecard are good companies that should be able to endure any downturn.

And Yes - No more changes in the strategy.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

My Strategy In A Bear Market - Update

You may have read about my strategy for the bear market in this post.

This is just a short update.

After looking at the STI free falling till 2559 today, I decided to enhanced my strategy.

I will only start buying stocks once (1) STI falls below 2500 and (2) the company must pass my Triple S Scorecard.

Previously I stated I will still buy quality stocks that pass the Triple S Scorecard in the meantime, and blue chips will only be bought when STI falls below 2500.

Now it's a combination of both.

This meant that I will be using the Triple S Scorecard for blue chips as well, which I have always stated that I should not do it as it may not work.

However, at this point of time when everything looked so cheap, its only important that you picked the right company. Thus the enhancement in my strategy.

This also meant that I will definitely miss out on the REITs and Trusts Stocks.

I guess this is alright in view of the number of bargains available at the moment.

If you are interested in my Triple S Scorecard, contact me through my blog or message me on my T.U.B Investing Facebook Page.

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Monday, January 18, 2016

Triple S Scorecard Online Course - A Collaboration with Stockflock

At last, it is done and loaded online.

As many of you have read, I am busy doing up an online course for the Triple S Scorecard. This online course is mainly for people to understand how the Triple S Scorecard works and eventually make the Triple S Scorecard - their own.

(If you have yet to get a Triple S Scorecard, email me at It's free.)

This online course is a collaboration with Stockflock. I have known the founder for some time and have used Stockflock since its inception. It allows comparison of stocks directly in graphs and charts. It has been very useful for me when I want to find companies to compare across the same industry.

Here is a post from Dollars and Sense that explains much more in detail on the usage of the website. This is free!

Since October last year, Stockflock has launched a paid service - The Stockflock Concierge. I have been using this service since it has been launched and it has helped me greatly as well. In simple explanation, this service allows me to select up to 20 stocks and it will provide me the news from SGX Annoucements, AK Blogs, The Edge and many other sources. It saves a lot of my time for just a small fee per month! (Heard it is at $5 per month now!).

Here is a post written by the founder in AK Blog on the Stockflock Concierge.

So back to the Online Course...

If any of you who has requested the Triple S Scorecard from me and is interested to know more about the usage of the Triple S Scorecard, please do sign up for this Online Course.

The Online Course will be price at $38 and anyone who sign up for the Online Course will be entitled to:
1. The Triple S Scorecard (if you still do not have...)
2. Access to the Triple S Scorecard Online Course (via the Stockflock website).
3. A Simple Tracking Excel Spreadsheet for you portfolio (Only for those who sign up will have this!)
4. 3 Months of Stockflock Concierge FREE! (After you sign up for the course, we will provide you a promo code specially for this course).
5. Review of 1 Stock with you - to ensure you used Triple S Scorecard correctly (Preferably a Singapore Stock).
6. Contact me via T.U.B Investing Facebook Page Messenger Anytime! (You still can do that now...Just contact me if you want to!)

Contact me via the T.U.B Investing Facebook Page Messenger or email me at if you require more information on Triple S Scorecard or the Online Course.

Click on the link on the header to learn more about Triple S Scorecard.

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Saturday, January 16, 2016

My Strategy In This Bear Market

As you should know, the bear has arrived. Everyone is explaining about their own differentiated views and directions. Thus, it is starting to get a bit confusing.

So I guess its time to review how I should approach this Bear Market and this post will be a reminder.

My mission is to "Buy Quality Companies With High Margin Of Safety That Can Withstand This Short Term Volatility And Sustain Paying High Dividend"

1. Do up a Watchlist of Stocks with expected Entry/Re-entry Price

During this period, every single stock will be on discount. Everyday as a value investor, you will be tempted to enter the market. But remember your cash is limited. So you will have to do up a watchlist of stocks and each stock should have a entry price.

2 - Blue Chips vs Dividend vs Value vs Others

If you look at my portfolio, you can break the stock into 4 categories - Blue Chips, Dividend, Value and Others.

I realised my Blue Chips and Dividend Stocks have been hit very badly during this period, while Value Stocks have withstand the Bear Market the best. Others have performed relatively alright too.

So based on the above view, I will stop all my Blue Chips and Dividend Paying Stocks purchases, and concentrate on buying Value Stocks (Stocks that pass the Triple S Scorecard).

I will also stop buying Others because I want to concentrate on Quality Companies that pass the Triple S Scorecard. Furthermore, Stocks in "Others" may lack in some areas that miss out on being Quality.

3 - Buy when value emerges in Blue Chips

Blue Chips tend to recover the fastest, so there is no ignoring of the Blue Chips.

I will re-enter to buy the Blue Chips when STI hits below 2500. My view is that 2500 should be quite a low point for STI and value should emerges then (no technical analysis done... just my gut feel).

4 - Clear dead wood/Others to recover some cash.

I still have some "dead wood" in this portfolio that I am looking to sell off to recover back some liquidity to buy more stocks.

This is just my reminder to myself of my approach to this bear market. If you are starting to be confused as well, you should try to come up with your own approach for this bear market.

If you are interested in my Triple S Scorecard, contact me through my blog or message me on my T.U.B Investing Facebook Page.

I will also be producing an online course, if interested, contact us for more details if you are interested.

Do like our facebook page too...

Sunday, January 3, 2016

PNE Industries Ltd - Sunset Industry?

For the 1st post of 2016, as per what I said in the previous post – to continue with more writing of analysis of companies I owe or shortlist or just “kaypoh”.

This will be in line to promote the use of Triple S Scorecard and it will also show the readers how it will help with the analysis of the company. I will also try to track the price changes and update the analysis once the quarter results are out.

So today the stock we are talking about is PNE Industries Ltd.

(If your mind is thinking WHAT IS THIS? Be prepared for more of such reactions in future. Cause I will try to dig up all the hidden gems in this blog. Stay Tuned for more!)

Profile in Short

PNE Industries Ltd is a company that manufactures and sells electronic, emergency lighting, and electrical appliances primarily in Europe, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and the People’s Republic of China through two segments, Contract Manufacturing and Trading. It was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Singapore.

(If you are thinking of this as a sunset industry, you maybe right – Business wise. However, it has surprised me every single time with good profit margin and dividend yield. I had this stock since it was 0.09+ before consolidation. After averaging up till now, my purchase price is still below the Net Current Asset Price [(Current Asset – Total Liabilities) / Total number of shares].)

Based on the Triple S Scorecard:

Why So Good?

Triple S Scorecard say it’s a Value Stock – Company has been able to maintain a strong balance sheet with a good margin of safety (not fantastic) and no debt. In addition, the company has been able to maintain a good margin (not fantastic as well)  and the profit margin in the recent years has even gone higher!

Consistent and Increasing Dividend – Company has been able to maintain giving out a consistent and increasing dividend since 2008. It was able to give special dividend in 2014 and 2015.

Sold Loss-making division – Company has sold off its loss-making division recently and make a gain from this Sale. This indicated the management takes necessary actions when needed and these actions seem to be correct every time.

Why So Bad?

Sunset Products and Business? – The question of whether how this business can continue to grow is still questionable in my view. However, if you look at the value investing, it is this kind of traditional business that is forgotten but it is still required. The business must continue to maintain its profit margin if not it will fail eventually.

In Short

I have held this stock for a number of years already and it has served me well. Currently it is still price below its net current asset per share of $0.727. Thus, solely based on this point, I believe the stock has yet to rise to its potential. In addition, based on balance sheet pricing (disregards the earning potential), there is still much more the stock can rise.

Current Price: 0.600 as of 3 Jan 2016.

Please do your own due diligence before you invest in this stock.

If you are interested in my Triple S Scorecard, contact me through my blog or message me on my T.U.B Investing Facebook Page.

I will also be producing an online course, if interested, contact us for more details if you are interested.

Do like our facebook page too...