Wednesday, August 30, 2017

The 3rd Happy Event This Month

Other than the happy events that Ellipsiz Ltd announced special dividend and it became a multibagger for me, as well as the successful launch of 1st Value/Growth Investing Workshop and Fundamental Scorecard website, there was another happy event this month.

Chuan Hup Holdings Ltd (CH) announced its full year results on Monday. 

As predicted, it gave out special dividend - 1 cent ordinary and 2 cents special! 

That's more than 10% dividend yield for anyone that bought it recently.

For me, I have been loading up on this counter since start of August this year. I buy until it became the top 3 of my holdings (despite the fact that I have 20+ counters currently and many are blue chips).

My small saving in SRS account also contains solely CH. Glad it repaid my faith.

Other than my prediction of the special dividend, the other reasons I continued to purchase the counter was because the Ultimate Scorecard say so!

As Simple Investor SG and I were building up Fundamental Scorecard website, I kept noticing CH popping up in the Ultimate Scorecard index.

Normally, CH do not really fall into the category of "value stock". But since CH pass as a "value stock" at that time, I became more assured and confident that its share price could rise.

I also reviewed its subsidiaries' and associates' financial report to ensure CH will perform well this year.

True enough, CH did much better than previous year and provided special dividend, resulting in a jump in share price. 

This will also be another example that the Ultimate Scorecard is an useful tool in finding undervalued counters.

Thus, if you are interested to subscribe to any of the scorecard database, do sign up at Fundamental Scorecard!

Currently, we are running a promotion till 1 Sep 2017 and we will be giving 1 extended month free to anyone whom sign up any of our scorecard!  

Please like my Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote for the latest updates!  

Sunday, August 27, 2017

Launch of Fundamental Scorecard

On 26 August 2017, Simple Investor SG and I conducted our very 1st Value/Growth Investing workshop and this is also the event where we launch our very own database website, Fundamental Scorecard.

The event was a success as everyone who came seems to gain some useful insights, and to our astonishment, the sign up rate was rather high.

Furthermore, we have also invited some prestigious guest to our event, such as Christopher of Growing Your Tree of Prosperity, Brian of A Path to Forever Financial Freedom, Richard of Invest Openly as well as friends from InvestingNote were there. We were just glad they agree to come and wanted to get some feedback from them.

Nevertheless, to our amazement, they have already written very positive reviews of the event and the Fundamental Scorecard.

I still remember I was watching Kooza (there was a national day promotion previously) with my wife when one of the participant whatsapp me about the write up. When I read the reviews, I was super touched and tears almost fell. Luckily, I was watching circus at that time! I was so emotional about it because I always wanted to share and help the investing community, as I have written previously. 

Fundamental Scorecard is something that I personally believe will definitely help retail investors. 

This conclusion came up after 2 and half year of blogging, creating scorecards, conducting sharing sessions, started and failing to positively contribute significantly to TUB Circle.

Fundamental Scorecard is created to give an edge to average, everyday investors via the scorecard method. 

Simple Investor SG and I hope that it will become "a website that all experience investors can gather and share their own way of investing via different scorecards." We believe that scorecard method is the way to go as it will help to eliminate emotions and allow users to focus on fundamental. 

Fundamental Scorecard currently contains the Ultimate Scorecard database, created by me. It held up to 480 scorecards of almost all the active counters in SGX (excluding REITs and counters without 5 years data).

Fundamental Scorecard also contains Full Analysis database, created by Simple Investor SG, which holds up to 700 scorecards of all the active counters in SGX.

Do take a look at the write up of the scorecards.

Thus, if you are interested to subscribe to any of the scorecard database, do sign up at Fundamental Scorecard!

Currently, we are running a promotion till 1 Sep 2017 and we will be giving 1 extended month free to anyone whom sign up any of our scorecard!  

Please like my Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote for the latest updates!

Monday, August 21, 2017

A Case Study On "How To Use The Ultimate Scorecard"

Sometimes when you start to see other counters rise while yours just "relax one corner and lay there", you will start to doubt your method. Regardless of how much you believe in your own method, you will be tempted to do something about it. 

Mr Market will sometimes test your emotions as well - Making you feel worried because they decide to flood the market with a lot of RED numbers.

Nevertheless, when you hold your ground and continue to believe in yourself, Mr Market will suddenly reward you for your consistency and patience.

Ellipsiz Ltd (aka Ellipsiz) is a very good case study. 

I bought Ellipsiz a long time ago when it was just 30 cents. 

Today, Ellipsiz just announced a good set of full year results with mouthwatering dividend.

6.5 cents of dividend in the 2nd half of the year - that's about 9.7%of dividend yield against a current price of $0.665.

If we include the full year dividend of 9 cents, that's about 13.5% of dividend yield!

In addition, it is important to note that I bought more of Ellipsiz recently at $0.635 per share! 

I am sure the share price will rises significantly again tomorrow!

The reasons I average up was because:

1. Late announcement of Full Year Results

I understand the full year revenue was suppose to be announced in the first week of August. But the company did not release their results. Thus, I decided that something good could be happening. So after verifying the 3rd quarter result, I analyse that even if it was a very bad quarter, I will still be able to get some dividend.

2. Because The Ultimate Scorecard Say So!

When The Ultimate Scorecard was created, I did a test on Ellipsiz. 

It passed the Ultimate Scorecard despite the share price rising significantly.

At first, I was skeptical. But after re-looking at the 3rd quarter results and verifying the results on The Ultimate Scorecard, I decide to buy more.

In Short

I am glad I bought more of Ellipsiz and continued to believe in The Ultimate Scorecard. This justify that my belief in my own method is right. 

However, I like to add that although "The Ultimate Scorecard say so", we should still do our minimum due diligence before buying the counter. We must always verify results despite the test say so! 

If you are interested to know more about the Ultimate Scorecard, please sign up for my latest seminar with Simple Investor SG at this LINK and you will also get to see the launch of the up-coming database website too.

Please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote for the latest updates!

Thursday, August 17, 2017

My Greatest Invention - The Ultimate Scorecard

With the launch of the Value/Growth seminar and the up-coming database website, I believe many of you will want to hear me discuss about the new changes in my scorecard – Currently my greatest invention – “The Ultimate Scorecard”.

Seriously it is hard and harder to come up with new name for my scorecards, hopefully this will be my final enhancement.

Prior to elaborate further on the scorecard, it will be good to note that, in view of my up-coming database website, I will not be distributing any of my old or new scorecards anymore to members or non-members.

Lets' get back to the main topic...

What has changed in the Super Scorecard to have to rename it the Ultimate Scorecard?

1. Removal of Items in the Super Scorecard

Firstly, all the subjective questioning at the start of the scorecard has been removed. This will be eventually be up to individual understanding of the counter. 

For example, I used to remove China companies from my analysis. But I include them now. However it is still up to me at that point whether I want to buy a China company even if it passes the Ultimate Scorecard.

Secondly, I have also removed the Stable Stock Analysis. It is simply not accurate enough. Thus, the existing Super Scorecard users do take note.

2. A Special Return on Equity Ratio

While working on the Ultimate Scorecard, I wanted a ratio that tell me whether the management is doing well. Thus, I decided to fall back on the use of Return on Equity. However, being the contrarian, I believe comparing just this ratio is not enough. I believe I must be different to outshine, outlast, and outwit others.

Thus, I decided on combining 2 ratios to give the Ultimate Scorecard an advantage over others.

The final ratio is Price to Book to Return on Equity. I believe this encompasses the concept of value investing as well as good management.

At the end of the day, I expect this ratio to pick out undervalued counters with good management. Thus, buying this counter will be like, “BUY 1 GET 1 FREE”, getting 2 catalysts to push the share price higher.

3. Minor Changes Across the Super Scorecard

Other than the above, there are also many minor changes, such as which number to pick and which figure to obtain.

Thus, if you calculate and find that your ratio differs from mine in the Ultimate Scorecard, it is most probably because we picked the different figures to calculate.

What is the results from the vigorous testing?

Since I had enough data from Simple Investor SG, I managed to do a more thorough testing compare to what I did previously.

Do note that I randomly pick 40 counters with at least 5 years financial data and test them on how they will fare after announcing their 2016 annual report results (mostly done over 2017 which was a bull year) from 4 months to 14 months. In addition, do note that REITs, Business Trusts and IPO counters without at least 5 years data are not included.

The accuracy of whether the Ultimate Scorecard will provide an accurate judgement is only at 58%.

To investigate further, I focus only at the “buy” decision made by the Ultimate Scorecard and, to my own surprise, the accuracy becomes significantly high at 88%.

Counters which the Ultimate Scorecard returns with a “buy” decision (Share price information taken from Yahoo Finance):
Capital Gain
% Gain
AP Oil
Captii Ltd
Ellipsiz Ltd
Fisher Tech Ltd
Global Testing Corporation Ltd
Hongkong Land Holdings Limited
Japan Foods Holding Ltd
Keong Hong Holdings Ltd
KSH Holdings Limited
Lee Metal Group Ltd
Micro-Mechanics (Holdings) Ltd
PNE Industries Ltd
Tiong Seng Holdings Ltd
Valuetronics Holdings Ltd

However, since the first test was done based on 2017 prices, which was a bull year, I decided to run another test on 15 counters on how they will fare announcing their 2015 annual report results (mostly done over 2016 which was a slightly-bear, stagnant year).

The accuracy of whether the Ultimate Scorecard will provide an accurate judgement falls to 43%.

But if I only focus on the “buy” decision made by the Ultimate Scorecard, the accuracy is still a respectable 75%.

Therefore, I came up with these observations:
  • The Ultimate Scorecard is not very accurate when assessing a counter. This is especially true if it makes a “FAIL” decision, as the counter may still increase in its price within the next few months.
  • The Ultimate Scorecard is more accurate in providing a “VALUE, BUY or DIVIDEND” result.
  • The Ultimate Scorecard will give up more “FAIL” decision in a bear year as compare to a bull year.
  • For any purchase of the counter due to the Ultimate Scorecard providing a “VALUE, BUY or DIVIDEND” decision, it should be held for at least 4 months.
In Short

With the above observations, my conclusion is that if the Ultimate Scorecard shows “VALUE, BUY or DIVIDEND”, you can just safely buy and should hold for at least 4 months.

But this does not mitigate the risk of a catastrophic event. But that will be for another discussion on diversification.

After all the explanation above, if you are interested to know more about the Ultimate Scorecard, please sign up for my latest seminar with Simple Investor SG at this LINK and you will get to see the launch of the up-coming database website too.

After the launch of the website, I believe I will be testing and maybe adding other features to the scorecard, such as possible selling price. The possibility is infinite! Bookmark this blog and continue to follow me!

Other than this seminar, I also have another market insight panel discussion with InvestingNote coming up! Do support me at this event too!

Please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote for the latest updates!

Monday, August 14, 2017

Our 1st Value/Growth Investing Workshop

Although I have already conducted a few seminars this year, it is been a while since I have an actual sharing session.

But with the creation of our upcoming database website, Simple Investor SG and I felt that we should not be just be marketing the website without doing more.

Thus, we will be conducting a Value/Growth Investing Workshop together with the launch of our database website.

This Value/Growth Investing Workshop focuses on  the core concepts of Value and Growth Investing.

By combining real life experience with the backbone of each investing style, this workshop aims to bring investors back to the basic and focus on what is really useful.

Furthermore, I am also glad to have my friend, Poh Lin, to share a useful topic on "What your insurance agents are not telling you".

The details of this investing workshop is as follows: -

Date: 26 August 2017, Saturday
Time: 9am to 12.30pm
Location: International Plaza, 10 Anson Rd, #36-05A, Singapore 079903

If you are interested in this workshop, do click on this LINK to purchase the tickets.

For those who had already purchase the tickets, thank you for your support!

The next post will be on the Ultimate Scorecard. Stay tuned! Please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote for the latest updates!

Friday, August 11, 2017

An Interview with a Financial Service Agent

Having done many interviews with bloggers and other exceptional retail investors, I thought it will be a fresh change to have an interview with someone in the financial service sector.

Furthermore, T.U.B Investing is always about stocks and investing, so talking about personal finance will be hopefully bring about something different.

Therefore, I decided to interview my friend, Poh Lin (Poh). Other than being my financial service agent, he is also my ex-colleague, a fellow investor and a very good friend.

Currently he is also a collaborator for my investing workshops, such as the one that will be coming up this month. Thus, do take note that the 1st 20 mins of all my future workshops will mostly probably be taken up by him.

When I knew Poh had become a financial service agent, I started asking him more about insurance.

The most interesting thing that happened was that I decided to have a review with him and end up cancelling some of the insurance I had instead of buying more! This allowed me to have extra cash for investing.

Another factor I like about the review was that Poh was also able to provide the full spectrum of insurance products from different insurance companies. He was also telling me why some premiums were higher than others. These "insider info" and increased number of choices made me even more intrigued.

It is just like investing - if you knew certain information that others don't of a certain counter, you will most probably have a higher chance of making a right decision on that counter.

Without further ado, let's get straight to the interview questions and his answers!

1. Why did you joined the financial services industry?

Poh: Having 4 years of experience with a global bank in risk management, I learnt that managing risks in a big company is extremely important on a daily basis. Ironically, while this is clearly recognized by companies world wide, many individuals do not realize the importance of managing risks throughout their lives. I came to appreciate the insurance industry through exchanges with my friends; how personal risk management through proper insurance planning helped families from spending all their money on medical expenses when their families became ill.

I happened to catch up with an old friend who headed an agency and after the discussion, I realized that I can make a career while helping people with proper insurance and financial planning.

2. What is the differences between you and other finance agents?

Poh: Two things mainly; firstly, my company Finexis, is one of the largest independently owned financial advisory firm in Singapore. What it translates to is that I represent the sole interest of my clients to find the best products for their needs. I strongly believe that there is no company that can have all the best financial products in different segments. Through a partnership with me, my clients get access to the latest product comparisons across the market along with sound advice which suits them the most.

Secondly, I have a consultative approach towards planning for my clients. I believe that planning cannot be done properly if you don't understand a person enough. And that's why in the first consultation session with my clients, I will not introduce any products, instead focusing on learning more about my client's needs fully. I treat all my clients as my personal friends, which is why it matters a lot to me that they receive the best planning.

3. How can I save money and insure myself and invest at the same time?

Poh: Do not over insure yourself and use the right products at different life stages. I've come across clients who have been over insured before and it upsets me that they had been overspending on insurance products before they met me. I believe that insurance planning must be personalized for each individual. 2 individuals of the same age might require different products because one is married while the other one is not. It really varies and that's why it's important to know my clients well first!

By freeing up cash flow from proper insurance planning, the remaining of my surplus can be planned for emergency funds and wealth accumulating through investing.

4. Understand you invest as well, what are your investing style?

Poh: I am a firm believer of diversifying my portfolio. You will find blue chips Singapore and US equities in my portfolio, monthly investing plans (offered by myself) and a small part of my portfolio in derivatives products. I believe investing is just like a forming a soccer team; you need to have defenders (low risk), midfielders (medium risks) and strikers (higher risk). This applies to my investment portfolio as well.

A majority of my monthly surplus goes into investing because;

1) I have my emergency funds set aside

2) If an illness happens, I am well covered by my insurances such that my investment portfolio will not be needed to fund for any medical expenses.

5. Can insurance be deem as a form of investment?

Poh: Yes of course. People always say, the best form of investment is in yourself. While we are trying to build up our wealth through our investments, all these may be lost the moment a health crisis occurs. Unfortunately, we cannot say that it will never happen to us. That is why I firmly believe that the right insurance products are equally important in a successful investment portfolio.

6. Finally, in this current market situation, will you be recommending to invest or to insure instead?

Poh: I'll say why not do both! As I mentioned earlier, it's all about good diversification and having a balance with your money. It does not have to take a lot of money to have a good insurance coverage in your investment portfolio. It's all about proper planning!

That's all for the interview. If you are interested to know more about Poh, do come to the upcoming seminar.

I knew I promised you the post on the Ultimate Scorecard. But I am currently still doing some checking. The post will be up next mid week, stay tuned. Please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote for the latest updates!

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Want I Really Wanted To Do...

When I started this blog, I just wanted to share what I knew about investing.

But as I got more involved within the investing scene in Singapore, I felt that there was a lack of understanding towards investing.

Scenario that I came across resulting in me having these thoughts:

1. Investors start asking if a particular hot counter (that is no longer hot) can be invested, because its price has suddenly dropped.

2. Investors wanted more returns. This resulted in them getting scammed by others as they go for impossible guaranteed returns unless the person is Warren Buffett.

3. Investors just want hot tips - Buy or Sell. They just don't want to do due diligence.

4. Investors just follow others and buy the hottest counter at that time. Later not, they forget to sell and cannot bear to cut loss.

Therefore, being a more experience investor, I just wanted to find more ways to help others.

Thus I created my scorecards and upgraded them till The Super Scorecard I have today (A further upgraded version is coming up. Stay tuned! - The Ultimate Scorecard).

Then I setup my sharing sessions to teach people how to use the scorecard and to understand what the scorecard really means.

But then, I realize that I am still unable to satisfy a retail investor eventual requirement - There are still those that find a a scorecard method troublesome, those that have no time to do all these calculation due to work (Myself included at times) and those who just refused to understand and do more.

This led to me create T.U.B Circle. I thought this will be the final product - a website full of database of scorecards.

I REALLY BELIEVE this will be what the retail investors want:
- A place which remove the bias in choosing what to invest in,
- A place where it will tell you a counter is value counter and you can "feel safe" and go ahead to buy it.

But I forget I am a 1-man show who have a 9 to 5 job. I miscalculated and I am unable to create and update so many scorecards.

This led me to be unable to help others when I thought I could. With that, I started sharing less of what I felt I could and should have done.

Nevertheless, fast forward a bit, I met Simple Investor through InvestingNote. We had the same mindset about the investment scene in Singapore.

He had his Full Analysis V14 and I had The Super Scorecard. We just lack the back end data. So we pooled our resources and came up with a plan to collect all the financial data of the stocks in SGX.

With this issue solved, I strongly believe that I will be able to fulfill what I have always wanted to share with the retail investors. 

Currently we are in the midst of testing our website and it will be launched soon.

But Simple Investor and I do not just want to share our website. We also want to teach and explain about our methods. Therefore, we will be launching the website on our first collaboration course.

If you are interested, follow me on Facebook and InvestingNote for more updates! More information will be released soon!

The next update will be on the new Ultimate Scorecard. Stay tuned!