Saturday, March 31, 2018

My 15% Portfolio - Changes After 1 Quarter

It is the time of the year again.

As always, I will reveal my portfolio every quarter and make some notes about it.

This time round, it will be called "My 15% Portfolio". This is because I am looking at a stretch target of 15% gain by end of the year (Read up on My 10% Portfolio here).

Do note that this portfolio was inherited from the portfolio at end of 2017 and their respective share price was restarted on 26 Dec 2017.

Thus, any gain or losses was just based on the price changes over the last 3 months.

Prior to taking a look at the changes in my portfolio, let me emphasize on the following:

1. This portfolio review is calculated from 26 Dec 2017 and the aim is to review the total portfolio gain after 1 year.

2. The counter's initial share prices are their respective share prices on 26 Dec 2017.

3. The gain and loss stated is just a simple calculation of the difference in share prices, ignoring the transaction fees.

4. At times, if stated, the gain could include dividends.

5. This review will include my overseas counters in USA and Hong Kong.

Inherited from 2017 and Restarted in 2018
End of 1st Quarter 2018
Singapore Telecommunications Limited
Singapore Telecommunications Limited
ComfortDelGro Corporation Limited
Sold All at 5% Gain
Chuan Hup Holding Limited
Chuan Hup Holding Limited
ST Engineering Ltd
Sold All at 5% Gain
Captii Limited
Captii Limited
NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT ETF
NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT ETF
Japan Food Holding Ltd
Japan Food Holding Ltd
Netlink Trust
Netlink Trust
The Trendlines Group Ltd
The Trendlines Group Ltd
Challenger Technologies Ltd
Challenger Technologies Ltd
Colex Holding Ltd
Colex Holding Ltd
TSH Holding Ltd
TSH Holding Ltd
Far East Orchard Ltd
Sold All at 2% Gain
Starhill REIT
Starhill REIT
Sold All at 2% Gain
HongKong Land USD
HongKong Land USD
Teckwah Industrial Ltd
Sold All at 5% Loss
The Walt Disney Company (USA Counter)
The Walt Disney Company (USA Counter)
VASCO Data Security International, Inc. (USA Counter)
Sold All at 1% Gain
Textron (USA Counter)
Sold All at 3% Gain
Quarterhill Inc. (USA Counter)
Quarterhill Inc. (USA Counter)
Win Hanverby Holdings Ltd (HK Counter)
Win Hanverby Holdings Ltd (HK Counter)
Sitoy Group Holdings Ltd (HK Counter)
Sold All at 15% Gain

Additional: ABF SG Bond ETF

Additional: M1 Ltd

Additional: Ellipsiz Ltd

Additional: Starland Holdings Ltd

Additional: Sysma Holdings Ltd

Additional: CWX Global Ltd

Additional: Singhaiyi Group Ltd

Additional: Powershares QQQ ETF (USA Counter)

Additional: Goldpac Group Ltd (HK Counter)

Additional: Cowell E Holdings Inc (HK Counter)

In addition to the current counters in the table above, I have also bought and sold:
1. OKP Holdings Ltd - About 5% Gain
2. Oclaro Inc (US Counter) - About 10% Gain
3. Vital Mobile Holdings Limited (HK Counter) - About 10% Loss

Yes. I still have a lot of counters - 26 counters at the moment. My portfolio is currently down about 2.2% since 26 Dec 2017. I am currently holding about 24% cash with 10% of them in Singapore Saving Bonds.

Reasons for the drop in the portfolio were due to the following:
1. Singtel and NikkoAM-StraitsTrading Asia ex Japan REIT ETF are 2 of my biggest holding and they are on a downward trend;
2. My current overseas counters are also in the red very badly.
3. The major supporting counters of my portfolio came from the Fundamental Scorecard counters.

There are about 10 counters in my portfolio that are purchased mainly due to the recommendation from Fundamental Scorecard website:

- Counter 1 - $0.560 as of 26 Dec 2017 vs Current share price of $0.540

- Counter 2 - $0.290 as of 26 Dec 2017 vs Current share price of $0.300

- Counter 3 - $0.027 as of 26 Dec 2017 vs Current share price of $0.026

- Counter 4 - $0.420 as of 26 Dec 2017 vs Current share price of $0.460

- Counter 5 - $0.440 as of 26 Dec 2017 vs Current share price of $0.485

- Counter 6 - $0.410 as of 26 Dec 2017 vs Current share price of $0.375

- Counter 7 - $7.360 as of 26 Dec 2017 vs Current share price of $6.890

- Counter 8 - Bought at $0.630 vs Current share price of $0.645

- Counter 9 - Bought at $0.114 vs Current share price of $0.093

- Counter 10 - Bought at $0.153 vs Current share price of $0.151

Even though only 4 out of 10 Fundamental Scorecard counters are having higher share price than its initial price. But I still believe in its ability to choose good counters. This is because some of the counters are not liquid and the price changes could be significant due to a small volume.

In addition, it has only been 3 months - Fundamental Scorecard works better over a longer period of time!

In Short

My current outlook is that the market is becoming too volatile - Just look at Dow Jones Index falling and rising 1% on a daily basis! Moreover, this year we have a few saga to deal with, such as a possible trade war, Mr Kim visit, Fed's decision, Crytocurrency and booming bubbles from various asset classes. This resulted in my change in strategy with a deeper focus on Fundamental Scorecard counters and also purchasing more of these counters when the share price drops.

Furthermore, if you have noticed, nowadays I will also try to find a counter's target price before purchasing and that will take up more of my time.

Finally, I will be posting on the next Coffee With Us session soon! Wait for it!

Please do your own due diligence before you invest in any of the stocks in my portfolio.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! Do sign up to get the latest scorecard of all the SGX counters now! Only about $10 a month!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Monday, March 26, 2018

The Counter That I Regretted Saying "I Will Ignore It"

Warning: This will be a slightly long post. But it will be packed with information.

I will like to apologize for the delay in putting up with this post due to the information I need to gather.

I will be writing on Singhaiyi Group Ltd (Singhaiyi) that I am currently already vested in and also on its industry.

I have wrote a few articles on Singhaiyi before – some good and some bad. Although in the last post, I already stated that I was going to ignore them. But I re-purchase them again recently.

Prior to me explaining why I did that, let me explain about what had happened over the last 12 months (Earliest to the latest)

1. Sold their stake in TripleOne Sommerset,
2. Did not exercise the rights to own OKH Global,
3. Owning 100% of the development of City Suites,
4. Acquire Sun Rosier via Enbloc Sales along with Haiyi Holdings
5. Acquire How Sun Park via Enbloc Sales along with Haiyi Holdings
6. Investing in Cromwell Property Group, the sponsor of Cromwell REIT.
7. Acquire Park West via Enbloc Sales along with Haiyi Holdings
8. Sold Entire Vietnam Town Phase II,
9. Then it issue rights at 10 cent per right share.

During the whole time, I did have my reservations over the management due to these thoughts:

Why did Singhaiyi acquire land bank using along with Haiyi Holdings - a company 100% owned by Gordan Tang, the executive director and Serene/Celine Tang, the CEO? Is there something I don’t know?

Furthermore, with their track record of not being totally upfront (please read my last post on them), I did not have the full confidence in them.

But why did I purchase them again?

1. Haiyi Holdings

I am always unsure of why the management always include Haiyi Holdings alongside Singhaiyi in all its investment/purchases.

Haiyi Holdings is a private company held by the management and I am unable to ascertain their motives.

Currently, I think I should apologize to the management for my short-sightedness. This is because a recent post on IN made me realised that Haiyi Holdings is placed there in order to support Singhaiyi when required.

Screenshot of Post from IN

To show their commitment, Haiyi Holdings actually scoop up over 1,048 million of rights shares – which translate to the management pumping in over $104 million into Singhaiyi. This also resulted in Gordan Tang increasing its deem ownership to 66.91% and Celine Tang increasing its deem ownership to 64.55% in Singhaiyi respectively.

The management actions over the last 12 months can also be viewed as positive, especially when it chose not to exercise Singhaiyi rights to purchase OKH Global.

With that, I concluded that the management actions have shown their commitment towards Singhaiyi and are in line with the shareholders.

2. Enbloc Sales of Sun Rosier and How Sun Park

When Singhaiyi bought Sun Rosier and How Sun Park, the reactions from the public were mainly negative. It seems that they paid too much for the 2 plots of lands. Some investors even went on to sell off their holdings. I was no different (Oh... I bought, sold, bought, sold and now bought again.)

I was sceptical about the purchases and wrote to the Singhaiyi IR. With their approval and blessing, I was able to attach their reply below.

A Portion of the Screenshot of The Email Reply From IR

Even with their reply, I was not fully convinced. Thus, I did a full analysis on almost all the Enbloc Sales over the last 12 months.

Information Grab from, Business Times, The Edge, Straits Times

From the table, it is good to note that the total overhead cost psf (including construction) is estimated to be around $369 to $684 depending on the district. 

Expected selling price psf is always stated to be a 10% margin on top of total cost (Land + Overhead + Construction).

As indicated in the table, it seems like the overall enbloc sales has increased the land prices around Singapore significantly.

In my opinion, this could be caused by a few factors – FOMO from the perspective of developers, the continued vibrant property purchases, higher living standards and continued foreigner purchases.

Nevertheless, this table re-enforces the view that the prices Singhaiyi paid for the enbloc sales are not unreasonable.

However, for Enbloc Sales within district 19, it still seem like Singhaiyi still paid a bit too much.

But on a closer look, one should take note that other district 19 enbloc sales were (1) larger plot of land, as well as (2) occurred much earlier during May to July when enbloc sales were not as vibrant, and (3) those were 100+ years leasehold land as compared to the freehold land that Singhaiyi bought.

Therefore, with all the above information, I concluded that the prices that Singhaiyi paid for Sun Rosier and How Sun Park were, at least, within reasonable range.

3. Park West Enbloc Sales

Singhaiyi was able to purchase Park West condo – 1.3 million sf based on a plot ratio of 2.1 – at $741 psf in Clementi.

Based on the current sale of The Trilinq, an IOI Properties project that is 350 metres away, the average selling price of the units were $1,335 psf.

Therefore, I am quite positive that Singhaiyi will be able make a nice tidy profit on the sale of the development in this area.

4. The Calculation of NAV

The simple calculation of NAV determined that there is a certain margin of safety for this counter.

As per 3Q FY 18 report – The equity was $512,974,000 and the number of shares were 2,870,297,850.

If the rights issued were added to the equity and number of shares, the NAV will be:

(Equity + Cash Collected From Rights) / (Number of Shares + Rights Shares) = (512,974,000 + 143,514,892) / (2,870,297,850 + 1,435,148,925) = $0.152 per share.

Based on the current price of $0.097, that is a 36% discount to NAV.

5. Fair Value

I also did a fair value calculation based on these few plots of land. I decided that I will based the fair value back to the book value of Singhaiyi.

Nevertheless, my calculation will come with A LOT OF assumptions and could get a bit complicated.

But let me explain:

Firstly, I calculate how the Enbloc Sales will be financed by Singhaiyi. Do note that Singhaiyi only holds 50% of each Enbloc Sale.

Part 1 of My Calculation

In this assumption, all the cash, cash from rights, entire sale of phase II of Vietnam town, sale from City Suites (Est 56 units sold at $1 million each) and receivables will be used to finance the purchase of the 3 Enbloc Sales. 

Thus, it is deem that a loan of $127 million could be required.

Secondly, I calculate the present value of all the 3 Enbloc Sales. It is based on the following assumption:

- All enbloc sale will be redeveloped and sold in 4 years.
- Overhead + Construction Cost is $450 psf.
- Sun Rosier will have a 5% margin.
- How Sun Park will have a 10% margin.
- Park West have a 20% margin.
- Discounted at 10% over 4 years.

Part 2 of My Calculation

Next, I calculated the fair value of the current book value.

Fair value = New equity amount (including rights issue) – all the expected sources of financing the 3 enbloc sales + 50% of the estimated present value of the development value – the present value of the total overhead, including construction cost, of the development.

Part 3 of My Calculation

Finally, I arrived at $0.124 per share. This is much lower than NAV of $0.152 per share and only has 21% of margin of safety.

Is this margin too little for the significant assumptions used above?

My personal view is that I did not include the following in my calculation:

- Potential gain from re-developing of Park Mall which will complete by 2019, 
- Redevelopment of 5 Thomas Mellon Circle in USA, 
- Rental income from Tri-County Mall in the USA,
- Potential gain in staple securities of Cromwell Property Group.

All the above could potentially push the present value of Singhaiyi to greater heights. Thus, I believe the fair value of $0.124 was reasonable.

In Short

With the positive factors stated above, I believe the current price provide some margin of safety for retail investors. In fact, I believe 20% discount off the fair value at $0.099 will be a good entry price.

But do note that I have only stated the positive pointers. This purchase do come with RISK too.

The main risk will be the property industry did not rise as much and the property developments did not achieved the expected prices.

Another major risk is the Singapore government coming up with more cooling measures for the industry in the future. 

In addition, it is also important to note that the fair value is calculated based on the future value of the development 4 years later. Thus, if you purchase Singhaiyi now, you should be in it for the LONG TERM.

Therefore, only purchase this counter if you understand the risk and are prepared to hold for the long term.

Do note that the author is vested in Singhaiyi Group Ltd.

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the website for more information and sign up here!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Updates For You

I will be providing some updates of what could be happening over the next few months for TUBInvesting blog and Fundamental Scorecard.

1. Latest Corporate News

Similar to many bloggers, I am working with PRNewswire Singapore to bring you the latest corporate news.

I have specifically request only for news from US, Singapore and Hong Kong, and only with relations towards investment/finance, business and real estate.

Just simply click on the tab located at the top for the “Latest Corporate News”.

2. Coffee With Us

Many of you will have known that Simple Investor SG (Simple) and I have been conducting free Ask-Us-Anything sessions at The Star Vista food court.

In future, the event will be called “Coffee With Us”, since we tend to have drinks while we discuss about anything related to investing.

Although the turnout had not been fantastic, but we still deem the event a success because we are able to interact directly with the participants and the feedback has been positive. Many felt that it was a fruitful session with many questions answered!

Our next Coffee With Us session will be in April. Stay tuned.

3. Guide to SG Stocks 2018

Simple and I have created our 2nd book – Guide to SG Stocks 2018. This is a follow up to our 1st book – Guide to SG Stocks 2017.

Although it is just a simple book that list out details of all the counters in SGX, but our purpose is basically for readers to know more about the counters in SGX. By reading and understanding the simple details of each counter in SGX, we believe it will help investors to better locate "hidden gems" within SGX.

In addition, for our 2nd book, we have also added comments from Shi Ern (He wrote a guest post for me previously) for selected counters listed in SGX. These comments will help readers to have another view from the perspective of a quant value investor.

Click on this link to purchase a copy of the book at $8 only!

4. Fundamental Scorecard

As for the subscribers of Fundamental Scorecard, Simple and I have been thinking of doing a detailed workshop with full of discussion. We hope everyone that attend will be able to understand and use what we discuss about during the workshop.

I am also thinking of doing a full discussion workshop for The Ultimate Scorecard subscribers. I want to discuss how I use my scorecard method (I have learnt to use it a little differently!) and also every counter that passed the scorecard!

If you are interested to attend, do look into our scorecard method on our Fundamental Scorecard website now!

5. Research On The Property Market

I have also done some research on the property market lately, especially the Enbloc Sales. I have even done up an elaborated table on these Enbloc Sales. This is all due to a counter I am looking at now!

All will be revealed in the next post!

So, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote to keep in touch of the future updates!

Friday, March 16, 2018

The Value Of Chuan Hup Holdings Ltd

I have been looking for a counter to reduce my almost 30% of cash holding.

Thus, an interesting counter stands out from the list of companies in my portfolio.

That is Chuan Hup Holdings Ltd (CH).
Chuan Hup Holding Logo
Over the last few months, CH share price has been hovering around and above 30 cents. I have been thinking of adding more of CH into my portfolio and have been rather reluctant because my average share price was much lower.

However, a meet up with Simple Investor reminded me about Warren Buffett’s quote - “Price is what you pay, but Value is what you get.”

Therefore, I decided to look at the valuation of CH before deciding further. In my view, CH should be consider from a book value perspective rather than earnings or DCF perspective. This is because it act more like an investment firm due to the associate and subsidiary it has invested in. Hence, I settled on a “Sum of All Parts” calculation for CH.

From CH's 2017 annual report, it owns the following:

 - 76.17% of PCI Ltd (PCI) (Subsidiary)
 - 19.7% of Finbar Group Ltd (Finbar) (Associate)
 - 35.5% of Pacific Star Development (PSD) (Associate)

All other assets are deem to be fully owned by CH. Do note that CH also own Keyland Ayala Properties Inc (formerly known as Security Land Corporation), but this is actually located under available for sales investment. So I will not be calculating it separately.

Do also note that only PCI financials are incorporated into CH Group financials. Therefore, its asset and liabilities will be deducted from CH Group financials. Associates, which consist of only Finbar and PSD, will also be deducted from CH Group financials.

The 3 companies will be calculated separate based on their market cap.

Based on the ownership and market cap as of 16 March 2018, CH ownership of the following companies will translated into the following:

PCI – 76.17% x S$169.234 million = S$129.802 million
Finbar – 19.7% x A$223.232 million = A$43.293 million => S$44.3 million
PSD – 35.5% x S$109.925 million = S$39.023 million

Based on the CH and PCI financials ending Dec-17:

Calculation of Sum of All Parts

As per the above calculation, the value of each share is 44.8 cents.

After giving it 20% discount, CH will be valued at 35.8 cents.

I believe giving discount is important in the current market because it is still on a bull run. With so much uncertainty in the world right now, the market will be very volatile moving forward.

In Short

With all the calculation done above, I will deem each CH share to be 35.8 cents (after a 20% discount – which is the least we should do for a satisfactory margin of safety). This will be about 19% of gain based on a share price of 30 cents.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that CH is a counter that will do well in bull run and WILL FALL significantly in a bear market. Over the last 3 years, I recalled the lowest share price seem to be 23.5 cents in 2016. That will be 16.7% of loss based on a share price of 30 cents.

If you like to more if CH passed my Ultimate Scorecard or the Full Analysis Scorecard, do visit the website for more information or sign up here!

Do note that the author is vested in Chuan Hup Holdings Ltd.

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Sunday, March 11, 2018

What Gambling Reminded Me About Investing?

You may be wondering why did I, an investor, decided to discuss about gambling?

This is because I went to Genting recently for 2.5 days and I LOST about $450 in GAMBLING (Yup, I gamble as well, especially when you are in Genting and the theme parks are still in renovation). Although it may not be a lot in your eyes, but this lost was the most in my life when I gamble.

Generally I was a careful gambler. I do not bet a lot in 1 game, unless I was very certain my winning odds were high. Furthermore, in casino, I do not participate in bets being more than RM 50. I cannot withstand the thoughts of losing more BECAUSE I knew the odds were already against me. In my view, 50% of the your winning odds comes from information gathered. The other 50% comes from LUCK.

Therefore, based on the above information, I end up only playing jackpot, pontoon, 12 zodiac sign wheel of fortune (I don't really know the name), and big small.

From my experience and feeling throughout this trip, I actually realize a series of emotions and insights. I was also able to relate these experience and insights to investing. Thus, I decided to share these thoughts in the post below.

1. Casino is always the winner. 

This is especially true when it comes to jackpot. A lot of my losses came from the jackpot machine.

I realise that when you make small bets, the jackpot machine tends to give you small wins to "pull" you in. There will be once at each machine that you will be able win much more than the capital you put in. But it was never enough.

Then as you gain confidence and make bigger bets, the machine still continues to reward you regularly. It will, similarly at a single point of time, give you winnings that is able to cover your capital and maybe slightly much more. But it will not be the jackpot (the big win that you were hoping for). This will only be possible if LUCK was on your side. And believe me, getting the biggest win is possible as I saw people in the casino getting it in front of my eyes.

Investing: Mr Market is will always comes out top.

As retail investors got more gains from Mr Market in 2017, many investors believed they FOUND the magic formula. They are the guru.

But when they are not aware, Mr Market will come back to haunt you.

One of the recent example is the STI falling from about 2.2% on 7 Feb 2018 - the biggest 1 day decline in 2 years.

2. Jackpot vs Big Small

This is a comparison between Jackpot and the Big Small game.

In Jackpot, you can make a lot of small bets in a short span of time, without any extra information to increase your probability. You will continue to make the next bet without considering what you learn from the previous bet. You can only HOPE for a good outcome.

In Big Small game, you have more information to look at. There are ways to increase your probability of winning but looking at past results. From the past results, you gather information and make more informed bets.

Between the 2 games, the amount gain or loss and the time spent, in a single game of big small maybe similar to 10 games in the jackpot.

So why did I chose Jackpot over the Big Small game? If only I realise this earlier!

Investing: Having more information or data reduced your risk significantly.

As an investor, if you read the annual report of the company you intend to purchase or you are vested in, you are already having more information than 80% of the investors.

By having more knowledge about the company, you will be making a more informed decision as well as calculated risk. Although you will still be hoping that your decision is correct. But this time round, you have a higher certainty that your decision will be correct.

3. The feeling of "I am so sick of losing" could result in you making irrational decision.

During the game, there was a game of Big Small where I suddenly felt "sick of losing". Thus, I decided to use all my chips in the next round, making on a few bets - Something that I never did previously.

In the end, I lost all of the bets.

Investing: We must always keep our emotions in check.

When we invest, there will be a lot of noises trying to affect your judgement. Daily price movement will also test your emotions.

As investors, we must believe in our method as well as our initial thoughts of investing in the counter. Unless the fundamentals have changed, we have to consistently keep our emotions in check and try not to allow the noises to affect us.

That's all for this article!

It will be great for me as a reminder if I intend to go Genting again!

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the website for more information and sign up here

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Monday, March 5, 2018

The Story of GRP, Starland and ayondo

With the recent possible IPO news of ayondo Holding AG (ayonda), there were some request on IN for me to write a post after I inform them to look at GRP Ltd (GRP) and Starland Holdings Ltd (Starland) instead.

Do note that I am vested in the 2 counters, but have only very very small holdings.

Short Background of the 3 Parties:

Very long long time ago, GRP was in the business of providing hose supplies for the marine, oil and gas industry. In fact, I believe, many years ago, it was a Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) counter.

Then in the last few years, it went into property development and acquired 83.17% of Starland Holdings Ltd in Jan 2016 (The shareholding structure changed a lot during the year. But to summarized, 83.17% is the current ownership.).

Then in June 2017, ayondo Holding AG wanted to do a RTO with Starland and also had a loan from GRP. But in Sep 2017, the RTO was called off, and GRP as well as Starland had a settlement Ayonda.

The Interesting Bit - The Settlement

As Quoted from GRP's latest half yearly report:

“…On 30 October 2017, the Company announced that it had entered into an agreement with ayondo on converting the $2.1 million loan plus accrued interest of $0.0796 million into a redeemable convertible loan ("RCL"). Under the agreement the Company has the option to elect to convert the RCL into new ordinary shares of ayondo at an agreed conversion price. The agreed conversion price is 33% discount to the IPO price. In the event that the RCL is not converted into new ordinary shares, ayondo will repay the RCL and all accrued and unpaid interest in cash. Maturity date of the RCL is 30 September 2018 or such later date to be mutually agreed between the two parties.

On 30 October 2017, Starland announced that it had agreed with ayondo to convert $0.992 million in expenses incurred by ayondo which was paid by Starland on its behalf plus accrued interest of $0.035 million into the RCL amounting to $1.027 million. In the event that the RCL is not converted into new ordinary shares, ayondo will repay the RCL and all accrued and unpaid interest in cash. Maturity date of the RCL is 30 September 2018 or such later date to be mutually agreed between the two parties.

Starland and ayondo had also agreed to issue new ordinary shares of ayondo, at an agreed conversion price of 33% discount to the IPO price, as reimbursement of $1.141 million of expenses ("Acquisition Expenses") incurred by Starland Group in connection with the Proposed Acquisition ("Conversion Settlement"). Upon the conversion of the Acquisition Expenses into new ordinary shares, ayondo shall be released and discharged from any and all further payment obligations in respect of the Acquisition Expenses. In the event that the IPO does not occur prior to 30 September 2018, the Conversion Settlement shall cease and ayondo will not be required to reimburse Starland for the Acquisition Expenses…”

Other Reasons Why I Choose GRP and Starland?

1. Both of them are NCAV Counter. Both have high cash amount with low debt.

2. Starland just turned profitable and is intending to give out dividend on a later date as per their latest report.

3. GRP is growing and expanding in Singapore and Malaysia as well.

4. GRP have links with Luminor Capital Pte Ltd through his Executive Director, Kwan Chee Seng.

In Short

I am vested in GRP and then Starland. But due to their illiquid volume, I only held a very small holding. If you are interested, you should do more of your own due diligence prior to purchasing any of the above counter.

For subscribers of Fundamental Scorecard, it will be good to look at my scorecard prior to investing!

If you are interested to understand more about our scorecard method and theories, do come for our upcoming FREE AUA on 6 March 2018.

If not, you can also sign up directly at our Fundamental Scorecard website to gain access to over 500 scorecard reports!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

Thursday, March 1, 2018

Singtel, M1 and Starhub – Which Should I Invest In?

Once the darlings of many of the Singapore retail investors for their defensive nature and high dividend yield, telco counters’ share price had come down drastically after the announcement of the 4th Telco.

Market share of these 3 incumbent telco counters are further reduced by the introduction of Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO), Circle Life, Zero Mobile, Zero1 and maybe MyRepublic.

However, being a believer of value investing and contrarian investing and maybe moat investing, I still believe that every counter does have a fair price.

When the negativity of a counter is at its highest, when no one talks about it anymore, when the share price has been stagnant for a long time, the bottom could possibility been reached. I believe that is when one should pounced on the counter.

However, these 3 counters are currently trading at their multi-year low share price. Which one should I choose?

Rather than assets, my opinion is these Telco should be measured by their ability to generate earnings and their FCF generation.

Based on my Scorecard criteria for the 3 Telco:
Based on the latest share price
*Do note that FCF is based on an average of 5 years.
**Earnings is based on the trailing twelve months.

As per the selected scorecard criteria, I will have preferred to invest in M1. Although Singtel has the lowest PE ratio among the 3 Telco, but this is most probably due to their huge earning gain in the IPO of Netlink Trust.

To enhance my view on M1, I had previous written extensively on the change in direction of M1 business. Their first mover advantage in the IoT business (among the telcos) should be able to compensate their drop in earnings in this traditional telco business space.

Do note that the author is vested in M1 and Singtel.

If you are interested to understand more about our scorecard method and theories, do come for our upcoming FREE AUA on 6 March 2018.

If not, you can also sign up directly at our Fundamental Scorecard website to gain access to over 500 scorecard reports!

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.