tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post2382699695131735009..comments2024-01-28T11:41:12.149+08:00Comments on T.U.B Investing: "I Found A Catalyst In This Company"The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-68043598885110297852016-12-06T09:08:04.787+08:002016-12-06T09:08:04.787+08:007) I will have to do another re-test of the scorec...7) I will have to do another re-test of the scorecard. Realise I forget to change the dividend for 2016... my bad. The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)https://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-8670882590611201552016-12-06T09:07:05.368+08:002016-12-06T09:07:05.368+08:006) Actually my view is the same. I believe for the...6) Actually my view is the same. I believe for the 4th quarter, BBR will report positive earnings and these will overwrite all the losses in the previous years. <br /><br />If they happen to make more losses and share price got a hit, I will be more than happy to scoop some for myself.The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)https://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-56431473292834685742016-12-06T09:04:51.204+08:002016-12-06T09:04:51.204+08:005) No problem. I will reduce my FCF for 2016. I ju...5) No problem. I will reduce my FCF for 2016. I just need it to be positive to get something out of the scorecard.The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)https://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-66141747978085865182016-12-06T09:03:32.317+08:002016-12-06T09:03:32.317+08:003) I also align these figures with 3rd Quarter fin...3) I also align these figures with 3rd Quarter financials. Don't worry. :)<br /><br />4) Ops.. must have miss out on the comments portion. Most probably, I will make some other amendments to the scorecard to test it again. The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)https://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-71228275996028648672016-12-06T09:00:51.894+08:002016-12-06T09:00:51.894+08:00Hi SG TTI,
Thanks for reading my post again! Hah...Hi SG TTI, <br /><br />Thanks for reading my post again! Haha... I was expecting some comments from you. So there is no issue. <br /><br />Please do not take the latest outburst on other platform as my natural self. haha... It was because I may have misread what others wrote. But that's that. I always like a debate, such as 1 which people point out my inaccuracies.<br /><br />So let me see if I can explain point by point:<br /><br />1) This is totally my fault. However, I just need the FCF that year to be positive.<br /><br />2) Do note that I understand this. I can always hold it for the next 1 year if required. At least, I know that something positive will definitely happen next year.The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)https://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-41109831583071912042016-12-06T01:39:12.897+08:002016-12-06T01:39:12.897+08:007) Broadly speaking, you are right in working out ...7) Broadly speaking, you are right in working out that after repayment of loans and proportioning out CF from the associate, BBR's BS will look very strong. In fact, currently, as of FY16Q3, the 33mil can already pay off all loans. And we're still going to see $20mil + XXX mil from associate.<br />Also, since it is an associate, not a subsidiary, currently the associate's results are NOT consolidated in BBR's.<br />So it follows that after TOP, BBR's shareholder equity will also receive a nice bump when the associate is disbanded and given out proportionally to all shareholders.<br />As mentioned, it may not happen in Q4 though, but could be in 1Q17, esp since 7 units are still unsold.ThumbTack Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16852330305458189895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-9483870089089385532016-12-06T01:25:29.844+08:002016-12-06T01:25:29.844+08:006) Finally, I didn't really write an update be...6) Finally, I didn't really write an update because again, in my comments section, I don't view the lakelife as a catalyst. This information has been widely available for a long time, I suspect the markets already understand this.<br />On top of that, BBR has reported losses in earlier quarters, this Q4 boost will likely bring the full year earnings to +ve, but not something impressive. I'm guessing conservatively, 2-3 cents EPS? <br />definitely higher than last year, but below long term average EPS.<br />My own idea of a catalyst for BBR, is simply when they stop bleeding money in the general construction arm. And I think that should be seen in FY17 onwards. Once that stops bleeding, their remaining projects are currently looking good.ThumbTack Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16852330305458189895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-71127598536330032252016-12-06T01:22:15.701+08:002016-12-06T01:22:15.701+08:005) Your figures are also not updated because the c...5) Your figures are also not updated because the calculation assumes 100% sold. For a long while that looks like it as Lakelife was 98% sold not too long ago. However, as it is an EC, and EC has rules, some of the owners now do NOT qualify for the units. As of the time of writing this, there are now 7 units unsold.<br />Based on the listed price, we've to back out approximately $8mil + for these 7 units.<br />That leaves us with a reduced PBT of $87.3mil, and assuming 20% tax, a NP of $69.84mil.<br />35% stake means the corresponding profit proportioned to BBR would be $24.4mil, which is actually higher than my previous calculation because I previously erroneously took out the loan due to BBR first.<br />In any case, to summarize, my estimation for BBR's earnings from Lakelife, is still around the 6 cents region, but the cashflow figures are now wrong.<br />BBR will get the $20mil loan back + 35% of whatever cash the associate has, after paying off it's other obligations, including loans from other shareholders.<br />So your calculation based on the CF could potentially be very far off the markThumbTack Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16852330305458189895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-12811683996506836792016-12-06T01:16:31.345+08:002016-12-06T01:16:31.345+08:003) The loans to associate is now just over $20mil ...3) The loans to associate is now just over $20mil (increased as of FY16Q3). My calculation was done about 6 mths ago so the figures are accurate as of then.<br />4) Corrrespondingly, the cash that BBR will receive, may not be $39mil.<br />BBR will receive the loan of $20mil, but the $19mil+ may not be accurate.<br />This is a mistake on my part (it's been pointed out somewhere in the comments section, but I didn't write an update post about BBR since June 16).<br />BBR will receive 35% of the associate's remaining cash AFTER paying off the loans. I have worked out an estimation of how much $$$ the associate will have, but I have neglected to account for the fact that the OTHER shareholders of the associates, eviva for example, could've also extended loans to the associate. Hence, their loans will have to be returned first, before this 35% can be applied.<br />I don't know the extent of loans because the other shareholders are private.ThumbTack Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16852330305458189895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-48211069741834650672016-12-06T01:10:34.156+08:002016-12-06T01:10:34.156+08:00Hi TUB
Now, you should be expecting me to comment....Hi TUB<br />Now, you should be expecting me to comment. You can't write a post about BBR and not expect me to comment right... haha<br />OK, don't take this the wrong way, but I gotta point out quite a number of inaccuracies in your analysis, some of it is due to inaccuracies in your concept, some due to outdated figures, and some, ashamedly, due to my own errors in my work (since you took and quoted my figures). Here goes:<br />1) Cash from associate doesn't show up in "Cash from operating activities". It'll classified under "investing activities", probably in the form of a dividend from associate<br />2) Upon TOP, the profit will be proportioned out and recognised, but BBR may not get the full cashflows as yet. The cash will only show up after the associate distributes $$$, which may not be in FY16Q4. It may be later. As a part owner of BBR, it really doesn't matter if you get the $$$ in Dec or in 1Q17... But since you are banking on this being a "catalyst", that may matterThumbTack Investorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16852330305458189895noreply@blogger.com