tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16090744214385852172024-03-25T23:35:09.947+08:00T.U.B InvestingA Contrarian investor, my school of thought is to deep dive into small caps companies rather than big tech firms.
Uncovering undervalued/unknown companies thrills me, as quoted by Peter Lynch - to find them before Wall Street does.The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.comBlogger459125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-82523087493383492672024-03-25T00:16:00.005+08:002024-03-25T23:34:37.970+08:00Evaluating Geo Energy Resources' Outlook Post March 2024<p><b>Vested</b></p><p>Prior to commencing, I must acknowledge that my <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2024/03/riding-reit-recovery-why-starhill.html" target="_blank">previous post</a> on Starhill Global REIT received substantial critical responses. Members in my Telegram group <i>(Link in this <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/p/contact-tu.html" target="_blank">post</a>)</i> pointed out loopholes in my article. Specifically, they highlighted that while the REIT boasted high occupancy rates, its revenue from properties outside of Singapore was dwindling. Furthermore, the dividend had experienced a consistent decline over the years, suggesting inadequate management. Hence, if you are contemplating an investment in Starhill REIT, do think twice - although I remain vested for now.</p><p>On a different note, I previously also <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2024/03/geo-energy-resources-time-sensitive.html" target="_blank">wrote</a> about Geo Energy Resource <i>("GER") (SGX: RE4.SI)</i>, and this article serves as a continuation of my previous piece. Although the time-sensitive information has now been disclosed and March 2024 is coming to an end, I still remain vested in GER. </p><p>As we approach the end of March 2024, the question arises: <i><b>what will happen if I continue to hold onto GER?</b></i> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1ybRFwf2vVQp1uDdBjhtOKhFGh0xBeSYmEklN1hs-paO_oAkPl0kDYXSlDo5Qd1B2hZ639qfgqdbVupgF_3eO0ksBDAKtV6eJA_5Ll0dUv15urHEOi6eWeMRhRTm2jA9KYTYXFf-Y-Sk9ewZzGVyzK4H4319RSpB5cilcG9QjqyQgiu9PMoDXEZutrzk/s1120/geo.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1120" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1ybRFwf2vVQp1uDdBjhtOKhFGh0xBeSYmEklN1hs-paO_oAkPl0kDYXSlDo5Qd1B2hZ639qfgqdbVupgF_3eO0ksBDAKtV6eJA_5Ll0dUv15urHEOi6eWeMRhRTm2jA9KYTYXFf-Y-Sk9ewZzGVyzK4H4319RSpB5cilcG9QjqyQgiu9PMoDXEZutrzk/s320/geo.png" width="320" /></a></div><p>To save you time, my hypothesis is that there will be a global upsurge in power demand driven by the fervor surrounding AI and Bitcoin mining. This surge is expected to benefit GER over the next two years.</p><p><i>This is my train of thoughts:</i></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The ongoing AI Craze and Bitcoin Mining Craze are leading to a significant demand for data centers. </li><li>This trend is observed not only globally but also in China. <i>(Article <a href="https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20231011VL200/2025-china-data-center-east-asia-it+ce.html#:~:text=China%20prepares%20for%20data%20center%20construction%20surge%20to%20double%20computing%20power%20by%202025,-Jingyue%20Hsiao%2C%20DIGITIMES&text=As%20computing%20power%20becomes%20significant,rival%20that%20of%20the%20US." target="_blank">1</a> and <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Technology/Asia-s-data-center-landscape-is-red-hot-and-increasingly-complex#:~:text=China%20had%20449%20data%20centers,out%20space%20for%20housing%20servers." target="_blank">2</a>)</i></li><li>As a result of the increased need for data centers, there is a sudden surge in power requirements.</li><li>China has been actively constructing numerous new Coal Power Plants since the second half of 2023 and continues to approve plans for additional plants. <i>(Article <a href="https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-new-coal-power-spree-continues-as-more-provinces-jump-on-the-bandwagon/" target="_blank">1</a> and <a href="https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/chinas-coal-country-full-steam-ahead-with-new-power-plants-despite-climate-2023-11-30/" target="_blank">2</a> )</i></li><li>China <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/12/china-coal-climate-change-carbon-emissions-pledge-plants-apec/" target="_blank">justifies</a> this expansion by stating that coal power plants play a supportive role in stabilizing power supply while renewable energy sources are being developed.</li><li>As of January 2024, as per <a href="https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-coal-plant-tracker/" target="_blank">Global Coal Plant Tracker</a>, China accounts for 53% of the world's coal power generation.</li><li>Per <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/chinas-new-capacity-tariff-credit-positive-for-coal-fired-power-gencos-14-11-2023#:~:text=Coal%2Dfired%20power%20is%20a,has%20a%20higher%20investment%20cost." target="_blank">Fitch</a>, China's introduction of a capacity tariff mechanism to facilitate the establishment of new Coal Power Plants is considered beneficial for coal-fired power generation companies as it enhances their cash flow visibility.</li><li>The construction of new Coal Power Plants in China has created increased demand for coal due to concerns about <a href="https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3244237/china-deems-coal-reserves-insufficient-after-past-power-crises-hit-industries-livelihoods" target="_blank">insufficient coal reserves</a> following past power crises that impacted industries and livelihoods.</li><li>Additionally, China's thermal coal <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-thermal-coal-imports-jump-crowding-out-india-russell-2023-11-27/#:~:text=China's%20imports%20are%20being%20driven,October%2C%20according%20to%20Kpler%20data." target="_blank">imports</a> have continued to rise, with Indonesian coal being favored by coastal utilities in southern China due to its lower sulfur content, which allows for effective blending with higher sulfur domestic supplies.</li><li>Per <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/china-s-coal-imports-to-stay-high-in-2024-after-record-breaking-q4-2023-80251799#:~:text=China's%202023%20coal%20imports%20also,against%20domestic%20coal%2C%20analysts%20said." target="_blank">S&P</a>, it is anticipated that China's coal imports will remain high in 2024, following a record-breaking fourth quarter in 2023. This information was emphasized in a <a href="https://geoenergy.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20240227_203039_RE4_2AWF82BD2O7ELKII.2.pdf" target="_blank">press release</a> by GER.</li></ul><p></p><div><i>The Simple Review</i></div><div><br /></div><div>GER primarily specializes in the production of Thermal Coal, which serves as a vital source of energy for electricity generation. Notably, GER's largest customer base is located in China. </div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd8oM91Kfh4qNsm-xgPj-0SVtwgqnRPF8hZs8HgE3bYKhC40D5FTZ4oXAVHkJ2_PdQc334t4nLDj9dDMUoPGDCP_c6vJ2E9vZiH9EXNkadLabQoGZ7MiSybo5qFUnqW5Q-0rhGOdzxDm8nd6wfYoZ8BWHlS2CIgRa-67Lo8K6bhSkstPu4vhHPhyXYyIk/s752/China.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="289" data-original-width="752" height="123" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjd8oM91Kfh4qNsm-xgPj-0SVtwgqnRPF8hZs8HgE3bYKhC40D5FTZ4oXAVHkJ2_PdQc334t4nLDj9dDMUoPGDCP_c6vJ2E9vZiH9EXNkadLabQoGZ7MiSybo5qFUnqW5Q-0rhGOdzxDm8nd6wfYoZ8BWHlS2CIgRa-67Lo8K6bhSkstPu4vhHPhyXYyIk/s320/China.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">FY2024 Full Year Results</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>The company currently operates two mines that yield coal with low ash and low sulfur content, making it highly desirable by China. GER also recently made a strategic acquisition, acquiring up to a 73.11% stake in PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk, which, in turn, holds an 85% stake in the TRA mine. This mine boasts 2P reserves of over 275 million tonnes of high-quality coal reserves, offers favorable low ash and low sulfur characteristics that command premium pricing.</div><div><div><br /></div><div>In my previous article on GER, I emphasized the significance of the prepayment facility provided by EPR. This facility acts as a pre-shipment arrangement, supporting GER by providing necessary funding. Additionally, the investment from RES contributes to meeting GER's operational cash requirements.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, it's important to note that the main risk factor lies in commodity prices, particularly the price of coal. According to the latest FY2023 <a href="https://geoenergy.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20240227_203039_RE4_2AWF82BD2O7ELKII.2.pdf" target="_blank">press release</a>, the average coal price stood at US$62.96 per tonne in 2023, a decrease from US$86.06 per tonne in 2022. Moreover, the current<a href="https://geoenergy.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20231226_174033_RE4_9E2GOTU9UJBBFDRR.1.pdf" target="_blank"> premium pricing</a> of the TRA mine's coal is only USD58.98 per tonne.</div><div><br /></div><div>Considering these factors, I anticipate that the gross margin may not experience a significant increase. Instead, <b>any potential revenue growth is likely to be driven by higher sales volume to China</b>. It's worth noting that this growth is not expected to result in a substantial increase in borrowing, as the prepayment facility and RES investment provide support. Furthermore, a potential reduction in interest rates could lead to lower interest expenses in the upcoming year.</div><div><br /></div><div><i>Conclusion</i></div><div><br /></div><div>In summary, the outlook for GER in 2024 appears favorable, with an expected increase in coal production without a corresponding significant rise in expenses. This could potentially result in a much-improved bottom line for the company.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Stay Tuned.</i></div>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-53843330366965406562024-03-22T11:00:00.001+08:002024-03-22T11:00:00.137+08:00Riding the REIT Recovery: Why Starhill Global Looks Like an Attractive Purchase<p><b>Not Yet Vested (going to buy soon)</b></p><p>I believe it is time to re-examine S-REIT companies, as they have been under pressure for an extended period due to the high interest rate environment.</p><p>I have outlined some criteria for what I am focusing on, such as excluding industrial and office REITs, concentrating on local REITs, and selecting one offering over 6% yield.</p><p>However, I kept returning to the same S-REIT in which I had invested and <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Starhill%20REIT" target="_blank">written</a> previously. The REIT is Starhill Global REIT <i>(Starhill)</i>.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSQWnxPAVUXR2lvt5nNxyImm9AC6Tw5CrFbsazk-d5yznrjkp3eykT7xON34LzN7QDscPb7rEMOdPMu5wlqu8SlT71bR2XfmN4WWp4P1TC2OfRg0UkUJV8zr4XJNdqujLiB7g5hWAhVp1NKc3zIRL1HWbCz9OaV2cyoeC2FwC5_8bh445_6y-8ChbhXtE/s254/img-main-logo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="104" data-original-width="254" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSQWnxPAVUXR2lvt5nNxyImm9AC6Tw5CrFbsazk-d5yznrjkp3eykT7xON34LzN7QDscPb7rEMOdPMu5wlqu8SlT71bR2XfmN4WWp4P1TC2OfRg0UkUJV8zr4XJNdqujLiB7g5hWAhVp1NKc3zIRL1HWbCz9OaV2cyoeC2FwC5_8bh445_6y-8ChbhXtE/s1600/img-main-logo.jpg" width="254" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Starhill Global REIT</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>I perceive a generally negative view of this REIT exists, though I feel differently.</p><p>In my opinion, there are some compelling reasons why it presents such an enticing buying opportunity currently.</p><p><i><b>1. Interest Rates Expected To Decrease In The Near And Longer Term.</b></i></p><p>I believe the elevated interest rate environment will soon end, and rates will start to drop in the second half of the year overall. This will allow floating debt interest payments to reduce as fixed debt comprises only 78%. Furthermore, refinancing of 2024/2025 debt will likely occur at lower interest amounts. This probable will enable distributable dividend income to rise.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigaMvnLnZr1FVL9ZPgGVidlw_1YIN2TvyH1bEEtZK9qsIAEpcWIYIdzc18Xg9YSgXDMar-2qyAM9oWwWQELO8Pml-2YtYn61XzYHVsycR76Op1kBAj5_agsn4UJANl7aHKdDCbWIDMs63AeW-jBl-aXkut5mtRNLdUFvjwClP4b-gqxsxXRrfkSSKLsXg/s752/Debt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="515" data-original-width="752" height="219" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigaMvnLnZr1FVL9ZPgGVidlw_1YIN2TvyH1bEEtZK9qsIAEpcWIYIdzc18Xg9YSgXDMar-2qyAM9oWwWQELO8Pml-2YtYn61XzYHVsycR76Op1kBAj5_agsn4UJANl7aHKdDCbWIDMs63AeW-jBl-aXkut5mtRNLdUFvjwClP4b-gqxsxXRrfkSSKLsXg/s320/Debt.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Starhill Presentation for 1H FY24</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i><b>2. More Than 7% Yield</b></i></p><p>Contrarily, if rates decline, REITs will become comparatively more attractive investments, in my view and possibly for other investors. Furthermore, based on my experience, the market generally works to ensure Starhill pays a 6-7% yield - so if dividends increase, more Investors will FOMO and try to purchase Starhill shares, also lifting the price.</p><p><i><b>3. Wisma Atria Renovation Completion And REIT Has Near 100% Occupancy</b></i></p><p>The Wisma Atria renovation concluded and new tenants have commenced operations. This suggests revenue will improve and distributable dividend income increase. Additionally, Starhill exhibits almost 100% occupancy, an impressive feat in the current environment, especially holding offices.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDxikRv-_tTfJnUas2vPC2t69zplIfUd61E43JzrjeBDTVzlvdpuxdK6JdZO-_1BsQETkVfWq2O8-TnIjmt_MU44x_Z3FxR-YBTdtFnqZ64GC9G0aguL3ci2zxIsUmeUXQD5ePjJs3j53hbixfnTNlFNNZ13AgrNmFGxRELymzdSawv-vAGBrHjeERy0M/s752/Tenants.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="752" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDxikRv-_tTfJnUas2vPC2t69zplIfUd61E43JzrjeBDTVzlvdpuxdK6JdZO-_1BsQETkVfWq2O8-TnIjmt_MU44x_Z3FxR-YBTdtFnqZ64GC9G0aguL3ci2zxIsUmeUXQD5ePjJs3j53hbixfnTNlFNNZ13AgrNmFGxRELymzdSawv-vAGBrHjeERy0M/s320/Tenants.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Starhill Presentation for 1H FY24</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7LzE89aaFKdzgu0u394veMHBs3JHyG0t5Qvh1YJ0c5KPzXTOvGv94KI5YlgpbY1R-fBqq3YiZ8jXTUWC-vaD85Kor5LfLAysnf2Sy2ohwKSmadT0CkW1meI6Z6TsrpKQiLit5ZLZzqdEQ_8-HRBLtFhOLszOKknaTVS_Q7XJEH4mJFzpuni3Ni5LDM0I/s752/Occupancy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="752" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7LzE89aaFKdzgu0u394veMHBs3JHyG0t5Qvh1YJ0c5KPzXTOvGv94KI5YlgpbY1R-fBqq3YiZ8jXTUWC-vaD85Kor5LfLAysnf2Sy2ohwKSmadT0CkW1meI6Z6TsrpKQiLit5ZLZzqdEQ_8-HRBLtFhOLszOKknaTVS_Q7XJEH4mJFzpuni3Ni5LDM0I/s320/Occupancy.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Starhill Presentation for 1H FY24</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>However, not all is positive - one <b>major risk </b>is <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/business/starhill-global-reit-in-dispute-with-myer-over-adelaide-mall-lease" target="_blank">litigation Myers has initiated against Starhill </a>regarding the Adelaide Center lease. If Myers prevails, there could be significant lost revenue and reduced distributable dividends. This would cause the share price to fall.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>The environment right now seems ripe for purchasing some REITs, and Starhill will be my top choice. With a supportive macro backdrop and its strengths, Starhill appears poised to reward patient investors in the coming year.</p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-82022028573618644352024-03-10T21:03:00.001+08:002024-03-25T23:31:39.082+08:00Geo Energy Resources: A Time Sensitive Trading Opportunity <p><b>Vested</b></p><p>It has been some time since I last wrote an article on any platform or on this blog. However, I am still been actively managing my portfolio. I just needed some time to recharge, as there were moments when I felt burned out recently. Nevertheless, I have returned and today I will be sharing information about an intriguing trading opportunity.</p><p>I am currently vested in this company but it represents less than 2% of my portfolio. This is because I have not had any additional funds in my portfolio as my primary goal has been to <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2024/01/2024-investment-strategy-evaluating-my.html" target="_blank">restore it back</a> to its original value of 100%. Furthermore, this is a trading opportunity and I will most likely sell it prior to April 2024.</p><p><i>The Company</i></p><p>The company that I would like to discuss is called Geo Energy Resources Ltd <i>("GER") (SGX: RE4.SI).</i> The decision to enter into this trade was based on two press releases issued on <a href="https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/VO2Q6HNPEMOLWAJJ/b0d6ac0a8a46d9b4cbd38a0f30d3654ce979250a59b42d0f5c8d2eca5e98430d" target="_blank">February 7th</a> and <a href="https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/3W423Q3XYAN2A7EZ/10c4733e64e406e61ecc1d569ad0f32f662dbf45686a7f419e3af3da00240cfe" target="_blank">March 1st, 2024</a>.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsnXpxWPX3dHn4KneB2UuSzZXmpFnwrjhE5mFc88MHVVwvu2CtJFsTfXJsOEVKDd-LGgqnkA4Zul87fagR2bhLBrf6AehlIu5seHRWBbRuaBct1k2V_mSlIxKvYWvT8n8Yxf3Y_lX13nKlyjfKYzBQDCPd8pLzpEuD10j7is9RGyXITSpmvcIe6Lru14Y/s1120/geo.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="630" data-original-width="1120" height="181" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsnXpxWPX3dHn4KneB2UuSzZXmpFnwrjhE5mFc88MHVVwvu2CtJFsTfXJsOEVKDd-LGgqnkA4Zul87fagR2bhLBrf6AehlIu5seHRWBbRuaBct1k2V_mSlIxKvYWvT8n8Yxf3Y_lX13nKlyjfKYzBQDCPd8pLzpEuD10j7is9RGyXITSpmvcIe6Lru14Y/w320-h181/geo.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Image taken from Singapore Business Review</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>To provide a brief overview, there are two important pieces of information that you should be aware of:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>One of GER's subsidiaries has entered into a coal purchase contract with EP Resources AG <i>("EPR")</i>, a subsidiary of Energetický a průmyslový holding, a.s. This contract entails the supply of up to 12 million tonnes of coal per year, priced at an index-linked rate reduced by the offtake margin. Additionally, it includes a standby prepayment facility of up to US$20 million for the Coal Offtake agreement.</li><li>Furthermore, ResInvest, a private commodities investment company, has expressed its intention to invest US$35 million in GER. This investment is aimed at acquiring a minimum 5.5% equity stake in the company by March 31st, 2026. For the initial investment, ResInvest may acquire the equity stake through market purchases and/or directly from GER at a price of S$0.45 per share, amounting to S$6.6 million by March 28th, 2024. It is important to note that there are various other agreements associated with this deal, which add complexity to the transaction.</li></ol><p></p><p><i>The Simple Review</i></p><p>GER stands to benefit both in the short and long term from these developments. The key advantage lies in their ability to re-accumulate funds at a lower rate, thanks to the prepayment facility provided by EPR and the fresh investment from ResInvest. This is particularly advantageous considering the prevailing high interest rates in the market. Moreover, it will bolster their balance sheet following their recent investment, allowing them to reduce interest payments and contribute to future net profit.</p><p>On the other hand, while many may argue that coal is a "dying" energy source, with clean energy taking center stage, it is worth noting that according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) <a href="https://www.iea.org/energy-system/fossil-fuels/coal" target="_blank">website</a>, coal continues to play a crucial role in iron and steel production until alternative technologies become widely available. Additionally, coal is also a vital component in the production of cement. Given that cement, iron, and steel production are primarily driven by infrastructure demands, it is noteworthy that China and Indonesia represent GER's largest clients. If these countries decide to inject more funds into their infrastructure plans, there is a strong likelihood of a resurgence in the coal business for these nations.</p><p><i>My Take</i></p><p>Given my current limited cash position and the inherent uncertainty surrounding the long-term outcome of this trade, my preference is to hold the position in the short term, specifically until April 2024. This decision is based on the anticipated upward pressure that will likely drive the share price towards S$0.45, potentially resulting in a gain of 23% <i>(from its current share price of S$0.365)</i>. It is important to note, however, that I do not intend to wait until the share price reaches S$0.45. I have already entered the market at a lower price, holding a relatively small position. My intention is to likely exit the position somewhere between S$0.38 to S$0.40, and I plan to do so before the end of March 2024.</p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-37830357168238074942024-01-29T09:30:00.002+08:002024-01-29T10:24:06.028+08:00Revisiting Beng Kuang Marine: Profitability, Disposals, and Potential Opportunities<p><b>Not Vested. Considering.</b></p><p>In my previous blog posts, I mentioned <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Beng%20Kuang%20Marine" target="_blank">Beng Kuang Marine</a> <i>(BKM)</i> a few times. I initially held a position in the company but divested when its share price increased significantly, as it was only a small portion of my portfolio. Based on my recent review of my portfolio strategy, I am not planning to reinvest in BKM unless it is solely for a separate trade outside of my portfolio.</p><p>The current circumstances seem to indicate a potential opportunity has arrived.</p><p><i>To summarize the situation:</i></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>BKM has achieved profitability based on its Q3 FY23 results. This suggests that it is highly unlikely for FY23 to be a year of losses for the company. </li></ul><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiS6MJDw1Q8JUzhFj4ETN3nvAvBAppuy9O8dQUmgjSuuGPagSws7D9Vrw6BCWuiwLrT5sifGK67GkYBhbvH56odBVWjmzF10a2nbPKsbpcQTks3NslOFA8JNH55il3HWxcwneTVJK3WP31i1m-QrIKBiZflVcInxnIjaPphe4ivTXtq5Eei7-PnhzVAYxg/s752/Profit.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="430" data-original-width="752" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiS6MJDw1Q8JUzhFj4ETN3nvAvBAppuy9O8dQUmgjSuuGPagSws7D9Vrw6BCWuiwLrT5sifGK67GkYBhbvH56odBVWjmzF10a2nbPKsbpcQTks3NslOFA8JNH55il3HWxcwneTVJK3WP31i1m-QrIKBiZflVcInxnIjaPphe4ivTXtq5Eei7-PnhzVAYxg/s320/Profit.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: BKM 3Q & 9m2023 Corporate Highlights</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Furthermore, BKM has successfully completed the disposal of its tugboats and has received the remaining S$460k in cash. This means that the company's financial results will no longer be negatively impacted by this unprofitable segment of its business</li></ul><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>In addition, BKM has collected all the proceeds from the sale of its shipyard, amounting to S$17.5m. The Batam shipyard was already underutilized, so the sale will not have a detrimental effect on BKM's existing operations.</li></ul><p></p><p>As previously mentioned, the funds from this disposal will be used to repay debts, resulting in a significant improvement in the current ratio, equity levels, and a lower debt-to-equity ratio. It is worth noting that the current share price level keeps the market capitalization below S$13.55m. This will lead to the price-to-book ratio and price-to-earnings ratio to be very low, since that the company is expected to be profitable, along with the expectation of reporting a gain on assets of over S$10m to S$15m.</p><p>Recently, BKM has experienced a significant rise in its share price, akin to a dormant beast awakening, particularly after insiders made purchases following the completion of the partial sale of the Batam Shipyard. Nonetheless, the share price has retraced, and from a technical analysis perspective, it appears that there is some level of support at the current share price. <i><b>Then again, this is an observation from someone who has zero knowledge of TA.</b></i></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzt7ZwSWowCCCwZ6tNpuXcNnbgGKmfkB3MoaRJsBtPjhEnh05DmizpyS9xXdiVsWc5kNg-3CsEPzdMedIyfLbRimm_jGmb-Ah66a_GfNvVkJSQftkYXMkiedSIX2-XIHRseFrZl1To0FlZMCFUOkCUj3AjY-LA0LGTjKMbexPf0nykfcboqsj2HB_we8/s752/Share%20price.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="382" data-original-width="752" height="163" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPzt7ZwSWowCCCwZ6tNpuXcNnbgGKmfkB3MoaRJsBtPjhEnh05DmizpyS9xXdiVsWc5kNg-3CsEPzdMedIyfLbRimm_jGmb-Ah66a_GfNvVkJSQftkYXMkiedSIX2-XIHRseFrZl1To0FlZMCFUOkCUj3AjY-LA0LGTjKMbexPf0nykfcboqsj2HB_we8/s320/Share%20price.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Investing Note</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Therefore, it appears to be an opportune moment to participate at this juncture.</p><p>However, it’s important to note that the positive developments, such as the completion of the tugboat sale and shipyard sale in Jan 2024, might not be reflected in the year-end results reported at the end of Feb 2024 or early Mar 2024. Additionally, BKM is currently on the <a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/business/10-companies-added-to-sgx-watch-list-as-review-resumes-after-covid-19-break" target="_blank">SGX watchlist</a> but have a 36-month cure period from 6 Jun 2023.</p><p>Finally, another aspect to consider is the potential for a dividend payout if all goes according to plan. Even a modest amount, like S$0.001, could serve as a delightful bonus.</p><p><i>Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/InvestingTub" target="_blank">X</a> for the latest update.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-66632816090030636652024-01-17T16:34:00.002+08:002024-01-17T16:37:04.184+08:002024 Investment Strategy: Evaluating My Portfolio and Setting New Goals<p>It has been some time since I last wrote here. As some of you may know from following me on other platforms like <a href="https://twitter.com/InvestingTub" target="_blank">X</a> and <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/author/tub-investing" target="_blank">Seeking Alpha</a>, I have been writing and sharing my views elsewhere. You can find links to my work on those sites in this <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/p/the-10x-potential-series.html" target="_blank">LINK</a> here.</p><p>Now, I wanted to provide an update on my 2023 portfolio performance and outline my strategy for 2024. To begin, my portfolio from 2023 did not change since my <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/03/my-restart-portfolio-updates-and.html" target="_blank">Restart</a> article in Mar 2023, as I am still around 40% below my initial investment. I have not done exact calculations since my holdings are fully consolidated on Interactive Brokers, except for some Singapore stocks in my CDP account. Regardless, <b><u>these returns are not satisfactory and very disappointing.</u></b></p><p>Given that reality, it is clear that my previous outlook for 2023 did not come to fruition. Therefore, shaping my approach for 2024 is of utmost importance.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiUbq3kcdnqKdkCcx2Ky_fh0otG3rwhP8RVW1z1DPgqmyblEV1gbhdLNYjKCeC-HEr_-zB8SvjfwnUaI0hmiRcm6qdUqYaXYrixiHhcVqwJolbNcAut_FSt4dXsRf0geFh95uom1d1GObzY5moX_-uD_vli7w_TlNvXVNSco1ZSwMwQYytkXeXF7nPWf6k" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2160" data-original-width="3840" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiUbq3kcdnqKdkCcx2Ky_fh0otG3rwhP8RVW1z1DPgqmyblEV1gbhdLNYjKCeC-HEr_-zB8SvjfwnUaI0hmiRcm6qdUqYaXYrixiHhcVqwJolbNcAut_FSt4dXsRf0geFh95uom1d1GObzY5moX_-uD_vli7w_TlNvXVNSco1ZSwMwQYytkXeXF7nPWf6k" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p>I have reviewed my portfolio multiple times, reexamining what I am looking to achieve. After thorough consideration, I have finalized the following strategy:</p><p style="text-align: left;">1. My portfolio will include both short-term and long-term positions. Personally, I want to see it return closer to my initial investment value by the end of 2024, or at least close to it. Thus, I cannot focus solely on long-term holdings but must also consider shorter-term opportunities I believe have strong upside potential in 2024.</p><p style="text-align: left;">2. Longer-term themes I will remain exposed to include:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Investment into companies that have scalable business models, meaning they have the ability to acquire additional customers with limited incremental costs, and generate recurring revenue streams.</li><li>Investment into Magnificent 7</li><li>Focus on artificial intelligence</li><li>Potential interest rate cuts in 2024-2025</li></ul><p></p><p style="text-align: left;">3. Potential short-term themes for 2024 are:</p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Bitcoin halving and Bitcoin ETF</li><li>The 2024 US Presidential election</li></ul><p></p><p>In summary, my 2024 strategy entails:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>A primarily US-based (90%+) portfolio of scalable businesses with recurring revenue streams.</li><li>Leveraging both short-term catalysts and longer-term trends, as outlined above.</li></ul><p></p><p>With this backdrop established, I will now compare my current portfolio against the portfolio I presented in <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/10/tub-path-to-100-oct-2023.html" target="_blank">Oct 2023</a> <i>(According to Cost basis)</i>:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>APPS - <b><i>Read <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/11/reflecting-on-my-investment-in-digital.html" target="_blank">Article</a></i></b></li><li>TSLA</li><li>RICK</li><li>PYPL - <i>Under Review at Seeking Alpha</i></li><li>PLTR</li><li>AMZN - <b><i>Read <a href="Read Article on Fundflick" target="_blank">Article</a></i></b></li><li>HDSN - <b><i>Read <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Hudson-Technologies--Inc---Profiting-from-Sustainable-Solutions-in-the-HVAC-Industry" target="_blank">Article</a></i></b></li><li>MSFT</li><li>RPAY - <i>Will do a follow up on Seeking Alpha</i></li><li>HUT - <b><i>Read <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4657156-hut-8-top-pick-capturing-imminent-bitcoin-bull-run" target="_blank">Article</a></i></b></li><li>Keppel Infrastructure Trust <i>(SGX: A7RU)</i></li><li>FUBO - <b><i>Read <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Revisiting-FUBO-Inc--A-Compelling-Risk-Reward-Opportunity-in-Live-Sports-Streaming">Article</a></i></b></li><li>BITF <i>(options)</i></li><li>SOFI</li><li>HOOD</li></ol><p></p><div>Since the start of 2024, I have divested most non-U.S. holdings from my portfolio. This includes companies such as FVRR, TSM, 9988, and CRNT <i>(options)</i>. This decision was partially due to the potentially volatile geopolitical climates surrounding Israel and China. However, my primary motivation was that these companies no longer aligned with the strategy I have outlined for 2024, which emphasizes identifying more short-term focused investment opportunities. While my original analysis found these still to be sound businesses, they no longer fit the strategic focus of prioritizing increased exposure to opportunities with upside potential in the near term, as I seek to improve portfolio performance according to my stated goals for next year.</div><div><div><br /></div><div>I have also written previously about divesting from GOOG and outlined my rationale in this <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Is-Now-the-Right-Time-to-Buy-Google--A-Critical-Review-of------Outlook-and-Investment-Thesis" target="_blank">article</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>The sale of DTC was more so a reflection that its business model lacked the scalability and recurring revenue potential that I look for, as compared to other software and platform companies currently held in the portfolio.</div><div><br /></div><div><div>FUBO is currently the only company that I had previously flagged for potential divestment but have chosen to maintain my position in. This decision reflects my view that FUBO closely aligns with my theme of focusing on opportunities that will benefit from the upcoming 2024 US presidential election cycle. I believe the company stands to significantly benefit given its focus on advertising in its streaming business. <i>Readers can refer to my linked article on FUBO for a more comprehensive discussion of my investment rationale.</i></div><div><br /></div><div>Regarding additions to the portfolio, I have primarily acquired positions in PYPL, RPAY, SOFI, and HOOD as their businesses closely match my selected investment themes for 2024, particularly prospects within the digital payments segment which I anticipate will see considerable growth over the next year. </div><div><br /></div><div>Going forward, I aim to publish detailed articles on each company held in the portfolio, especially those without an existing analysis. Followers of my work through the social media will receive updates as new articles are made available.</div></div></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Follow me on <a href="https://twitter.com/InvestingTub" target="_blank">X</a> for the latest update.</i></div><div><i><br /></i></div><div><i>Stay Tuned.</i></div>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-58748979455628169472023-11-21T23:32:00.003+08:002023-11-21T23:32:50.300+08:00Reflecting on My Investment in Digital Turbine (APPS): Assessing the Future Potential Despite Past Challenges<p><i>Originally intended as a paid article, circumstances led me to publish it for free on my blog instead. As a result, I kindly request your support by sharing this article and clicking on the Google Ad on the side. Your gesture would be greatly appreciated!</i></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Why I Remain Invested </span></b></p><p>I was asked to share my thoughts on Digital Turbine <i>(APPS)</i> in light of ongoing discussions on <a href="https://twitter.com/powpowpaws/status/1725174368945287475" target="_blank">X</a>. As a long-term shareholder who has closely followed the company, I feel compelled to explain my rationale for persisting as an investor despite challenges. </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp7y9igZ5qIn-2G9hkFe2N1N7jtCEXbyieetGl490KPMGbR9ofPBo4dz8clVOhqGz2XIngcI_6qWVJMxxkBqqmLgS2X-4tmUVzCuQrNHhddPLKNuxLVzruLx5pWybhJ0zSn6n5SDizkX8vCc5Z7gQnb4cR1rowAJn5et8HGT7JQ4vZknKCLdjaT8rFJYs/s1200/1700496675979-DT%20image.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="627" data-original-width="1200" height="104" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp7y9igZ5qIn-2G9hkFe2N1N7jtCEXbyieetGl490KPMGbR9ofPBo4dz8clVOhqGz2XIngcI_6qWVJMxxkBqqmLgS2X-4tmUVzCuQrNHhddPLKNuxLVzruLx5pWybhJ0zSn6n5SDizkX8vCc5Z7gQnb4cR1rowAJn5et8HGT7JQ4vZknKCLdjaT8rFJYs/w200-h104/1700496675979-DT%20image.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><p>I initially purchased APPS shares around $30, witnessing the stock rise above $90 before helplessly watching it plummet to just $5 over three years. While I sold a small portion in the $8-10 range, the bulk of my position remains deeply unrealized. It once comprised a sizable allocation that has now dwindled considerably due to further declines rather than averaging down.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqRuZKa1cWRgPBpqONbwJ1xJBoH8rcypcjW8QpdM3ZxNZNWiruxuo-ftxlUHHHHelUBj0zJi6Oz824wbOm5PRMqy-5_xpDqkLB1HRF50aF_5JE2DoHBPAIIJZWMLMN_xw_wdKMu0aV0jE3qGT-ukhxQHe1IhaNx8Ph8Oszcsi0jZQzxqttDXbV0xOO5Qg/s940/First.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="940" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqRuZKa1cWRgPBpqONbwJ1xJBoH8rcypcjW8QpdM3ZxNZNWiruxuo-ftxlUHHHHelUBj0zJi6Oz824wbOm5PRMqy-5_xpDqkLB1HRF50aF_5JE2DoHBPAIIJZWMLMN_xw_wdKMu0aV0jE3qGT-ukhxQHe1IhaNx8Ph8Oszcsi0jZQzxqttDXbV0xOO5Qg/s320/First.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Chart of Digital Turbine over last 5 Years. From SeekingAlpha</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div>Thus, given the negligible current position size, <b><u>liquidating provides little benefit.</u></b> I retain belief in APPS strong product suite and market opportunities for recovering lost shareholder value over the long-run. After all, APPS platform unifies the app media ecosystem, which still presents a large untapped market opportunity. <p>However, quarterly earnings calls leave me less optimistic, as commentary lacks substance. The near-identical prepared remarks of <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4625607-digital-turbine-inc-apps-q1-2024-earnings-call-transcript" target="_blank">Q1 FY24</a>* and <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4649414-digital-turbine-inc-apps-q2-2024-earnings-call-transcript" target="_blank">Q2 FY24</a>* earning transcripts signals an absence of meaningful progress. </p><p><span style="font-size: x-small;">*Please note that the fiscal year for APPS is consistently one year ahead of the calendar year.</span></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Here are 3 main issues that I had observed: </b></span><span style="font-size: medium;"> </span></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Reactive Management </b></span></p><p>The leadership and strategic direction of CEO Bill Stone have disappointed over the past three years. Rather than a cohesive long-term vision, I have witnessed a series of reactive maneuvers from Ignite to SingleTap to AGP to DT Exchange, and now, DT Hub. This instability is concerning. </p><p>Two major acquisitions in particular left me baffled - AdColony and Fyber, when APPS has now taken an impairment after taking on massive debt and having to pay large interest Meanwhile, Mobile Posse that was bought in 2020 only to be put aside after APPS tried to pivot from prepaid to postpaid customers proved unsuccessful. </p><p>At the core, APPS's technology and relationships within the app ecosystem remain compelling. However, questionable M&A activity and inconsistent messaging have undermined the potential of these strong foundational aspects. </p><p>Going forward, I believe the management team must articulate a prudent strategic plan focused on optimizing existing operations before diversifying further. Their decision-making requires more foresight versus the reactive tendencies of the past three years. With improved guidance and follow-through, APPS stands to realize its full value over the long-term. But substantive changes are needed to regain shareholder confidence. </p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Integration and Execution Timelines </b></span></p><p>When announcing new strategic partnerships, APPS’s CEO will routinely highlight their potential. However, fully integrating technologies and realizing revenue at scale tends to take a considerable amount of time. </p><p>Platform integrations involving codebases merging requires extensive planning, testing through small samples, and gradual deployment to wider audiences. This process can span 2-3 years as seen with <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/06/30/meta-platforms-is-suddenly-trying-to-enter-1-of-th/" target="_blank">Meta</a> <i>(yet to fully implement)</i> and <a href="https://martechseries.com/mobile/in-app-marketing/digital-turbine-and-tiktok-announce-comprehensive-expansion-of-its-app-distribution-partnership-to-north-america/" target="_blank">TikTok</a> <i>(revenue just coming in)</i>. While these represent valuable long-term opportunities, shorter-term financial impacts are muted as integration progresses.</p><p>Additionally, the stickiness of carrier relationships could be overstated. Losing a major US carrier, rumored to be T-Mobile, as a US partner dealt APPS's revenues a major blow, demonstrating partnerships are not immune to disruption once terminated. </p><p>Management should provide realistic integration timelines and milestones to investors. Quarterly updates on partner progress, rather than just announcements, would improve guidance accuracy. While the business model relies on complex technical partnerships, better communication around execution variables can optimize expectations. </p><p>Overall, APPS possesses compelling offerings but shareholders need a balanced understanding of both the advantages and challenges inherent to its operating model. Transparency on timelines will be key. </p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>Recent Changes to the App Growth Platform (AGP) </b></span></p><p>A new concern has arisen with APPS approach to managing its ad exchanges. While stating the goal of consolidation is to leverage large partners, such as The Trade Desk, Google and Amazon, more efficiently, management has acknowledged not migrating all publishers. </p><p>As the CEO detailed in Q2 FY24 earning transcript, <i>“We have nearly completed our consolidation of multiple exchanges into a single DT exchange…And as part of that migration, which will be complete in the current quarter, we've also chosen not to migrate some of the many thousands of long tail publishers on the legacy exchanges over to the DT exchange, which will create headwinds on past comps even as we grow our DT exchange into the future.”</i> </p><p>Further clarification noted that, <i>“…as part of that there's probably many thousands of long tail publishers from the legacy companies that are doing very small dollars where it's just not worth the effort to migrate them over. But in aggregate, we still have to comp over those and that's millions of dollars of revenue a quarter, it's not tens of millions and is something that will burn off…”</i> </p><p>This change could reduce already modest AGP revenue levels. It prompts reconsidering the 2020 acquisitions of AdColony and Fyber, which added debt but whose contributions are now being scaled back a few more years later. </p><p>Investors require clearer justification of APPS long-term consolidation strategy and how it will sustain growth. Vague direction and inconsistent initiatives undermine confidence in leadership's strategic vision and execution abilities. </p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">Potential Tailwinds on the Horizon </span></b></p><p>While near-term performance of APPS has faced obstacles, certain strategic pursuits discussed by management could drive growth in FY25 <i>(APPS start reporting Q1 FY25 after Mar 2024)</i> if realized.</p><p>Over the past two earnings calls, APPS outlined plans to leverage SingleTap across solutions. Efforts converting mobile web users to native apps, distributing alternative app stores, and enabling social media platforms to benefit from SingleTap conversion rates appear to be progressing faster. </p><p>This was further emphasized in a discussion with an analyst in Q2 FY24 earning transcript – where the example is Amazon and the details are breakdown to be: </p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Having a licensing deal where they pay a fixed fee <i>(about 7 figures a year)</i> to distribute the alternative versions of the app; </li><li>and then the store. </li><li>The next step with them will be to expand it to third-party applications.</li></ol><p></p><p>One significant catalyst behind the notable surge in progress could be the influence of regulatory shifts, such as <b><u>the anticipated enforcement of the EU's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act" target="_blank">Digital Markets Act</a> in March 2024 <i>(within the calendar year)</i>.</u></b> These regulatory changes have the potential to disrupt the established dominance of Google and Apple, and if a prominent social media platform ventures into this field, it might encourage others to follow suit. Consequently, this situation presents an opportunity for APPS to capitalize on and expand its market share.</p><p><b><u>Returning to the topic mentioned earlier within X, it is possible that Amazon has <a href="https://www.businessofapps.com/news/amazon-partners-with-meta-and-snap-in-push-to-expand-in-app-shopping/" target="_blank">established partnerships</a> with SNAP and META, enabling direct purchases could potentially be facilitated through a seamless SingleTap purchase process that automatically adds the item to the Amazon cart.</u></b></p><p><b><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg5OH9rGiIlfAP4L7Gos9PYoMreSEzeJReScWLPfisoawMluVOwkDVA9iykTGqMruxXjJ5QhxXQLRjQoVETNKUl2BtgEFV6PXOx5aDs0yRzY4wOT6FQmVSqgWjT3l2IpedQOOv4B4ARwErcduJ3_eejEFOdYGi9lhkbe8QmTfNKzgkHvHeAGheypZaRMA/s940/Picture2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="628" data-original-width="940" height="214" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg5OH9rGiIlfAP4L7Gos9PYoMreSEzeJReScWLPfisoawMluVOwkDVA9iykTGqMruxXjJ5QhxXQLRjQoVETNKUl2BtgEFV6PXOx5aDs0yRzY4wOT6FQmVSqgWjT3l2IpedQOOv4B4ARwErcduJ3_eejEFOdYGi9lhkbe8QmTfNKzgkHvHeAGheypZaRMA/s320/Picture2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">From RetailWeek Website</span></td></tr></tbody></table></b></p><p>Other than Amazon, here is a compilation of the partnerships that APPS has disclosed and that I have come across: </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Distribution of TikToks and running campaigns using Single Tap.</li><li>LinkedIn's initiative to convert their mobile web users into native app users.</li><li>Anticipating a revenue-generating pilot with another prominent social media company, expected to cover their entire U.S. user base later this calendar year of 2023 <i>(presumably META)</i>.</li><li>The launch of DT Hub, an alternative app distribution platform, in collaboration with five U.S. operators, leveraging the <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/aptoide-secures-8-5-million-investment-from-digital-turbine-strengthening-strategic-partnership-301982154.html" target="_blank">Aptoide investment</a>. Although generating revenue, it is not yet considered significant.</li><li>Integration of Epic Games' Fortnite title, utilizing SingleTap to convert web visitors into native application users.</li><li>Through the partnership with <a href="https://ir.digitalturbine.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/650/flexion-and-digital-turbine-announce-strategic-partnership" target="_blank">Flexion</a>, mobile game developers can effortlessly onboard their games to DT Hub, benefiting from an end-to-end store alternative provided by major mobile carriers.</li><li>Users purchasing new <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/xiaomis-internet-business-arm-expands-partnership-with-digital-turbine-to-power-global-app-recommendations-301958635.html" target="_blank">Xiaomi</a> devices in multiple markets across EMEA, LATAM, APAC, and MENA will receive premium app and mobile game recommendations directly accessible on their devices. </li></ul><p></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Valuation</b></span></p><p><i>I have indeed written a comprehensive valuation analysis regarding the initial article, as per the stipulated requirement for a paid piece. However, at present, I am hesitant to foster excessive optimism towards this company. Having observed numerous aspects, I remain unconvinced and prefer to exercise caution. All I can suggest is to maintain a sense of hopefulness moving forward.</i></p><p><i><br /></i></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Closing Thoughts </b></span></p><p>APPS appears well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities arising from industry shifts due to possessing valuable assets and partnerships not replicated by competitors <i>(IronSource, that acquired by Unity and Applovin). </i></p><p>Specifically, leveraging over 800 million ignited-enabled devices globally and SingleTap capabilities through various channels as outlined could drive meaningful growth. However, as past experiences demonstrate, effective execution will be paramount. Progress updates on pipeline integration and partner milestones will be important indicators of their vision being realized. </p><p>For now, I <b><u>remain vested</u></b> as downside is limited while upside potential still exists if the company can realize its potential. My view remains one of cautious optimism yet open-mindedness regarding APPS journey ahead.</p><p><i>Please remain to share the article and click on the Google Ad on the side. Appreciate.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p><p><img alt="" src="blob:https://fundflicks.net/2ffe8d9c-1dc7-498d-99da-f490f5dba432" /></p></div>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-77247493005384306252023-11-09T08:30:00.001+08:002023-11-09T08:30:00.146+08:00Cordlife Group's Prospects Hindered by Industry Headwinds<p><i>I was going through some old documents and found my receipt showing that I had previously paid Corvyiva's services. As a new dad, Corvyiva provided an alternative form of insurance for my loved ones. Cost was not the primary concern, but when competition exists price war inevitably follow. Fundamentally, I chose Corvyiva at that time due to their offering the same service at a lower price point.</i></p><p>It is worth noting that there is also a publicly traded company that provided similar services in the commercial storage of umbilical cord blood stem cells. Cordlife Group Ltd (CGL) lists on the SGX. I recall placing the company on my watch list when I began blogging in 2015, though I ultimately did not invest. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhArhVbK14-lVjBrFqgchItUKzj-lhq2StUGVY-RkPXO3OiOvXLyPY2iKwJ9mZQ44-YcMs238vaUcoATWlP4T60F3jF522ZAb2VdEzkDUKfgG338p4KGNFb_tqyYbCEE5mbvIDgWl0pZTu1tRPeEuQsGryoze5x4JhQdH79H5f1ZWzHQr1ftjVbv3gRslU/s200/1519905016858.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="200" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhArhVbK14-lVjBrFqgchItUKzj-lhq2StUGVY-RkPXO3OiOvXLyPY2iKwJ9mZQ44-YcMs238vaUcoATWlP4T60F3jF522ZAb2VdEzkDUKfgG338p4KGNFb_tqyYbCEE5mbvIDgWl0pZTu1tRPeEuQsGryoze5x4JhQdH79H5f1ZWzHQr1ftjVbv3gRslU/s1600/1519905016858.jpeg" width="200" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Cordlife Logo</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>As the company's share price has noted better periods in the past, I was fortunate in my decision.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdm47fUW76LDlVUNtsZp2M3a6ytT68Om43_fwKMxk_2JeLlC96uAHABIg_T3LBKfwiwgZK4xCASnjE5Y1zK5DEcNModjB6L044L8zBLxZ4OBP87Yn3e_ZSr0prwHezQYq90rz5XnyXPv_BpOx8Fen8HkwNEurMZW1d8DBQO6DXJZ45Cmi9vDmye6z1BXg/s752/Cordlife%20Share%20price.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="566" data-original-width="752" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdm47fUW76LDlVUNtsZp2M3a6ytT68Om43_fwKMxk_2JeLlC96uAHABIg_T3LBKfwiwgZK4xCASnjE5Y1zK5DEcNModjB6L044L8zBLxZ4OBP87Yn3e_ZSr0prwHezQYq90rz5XnyXPv_BpOx8Fen8HkwNEurMZW1d8DBQO6DXJZ45Cmi9vDmye6z1BXg/s320/Cordlife%20Share%20price.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">From Google Finance</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Moving forward, it may be interesting to analyze CGL current business model to determine whether re-adding the firm to my portfolio watchlist is merited. </p><p><i><b>Positives</b></i></p><p>Examining the income statement reveals that revenue has declined nearly 50% from its peak in 2018. However, the company has managed to maintain a relatively stable level of net profit over the years. The balance sheet presents as very robust, with virtually no debt beyond lease obligations and over 30% of assets comprised of liquid cash reserves.</p><p>This balance sheet strength indicates the business operations are not inherently complex or costly to maintain. Given it primarily entails storage services with predictable demand, CGL is able to remain profitable despite significant revenue decreases compared to FY2018. Furthermore, capital expenditures are largely one-time costs that can generate income for years thereafter. This ability to efficiently convert revenue into strong cash flow has built the sturdy financial position reflected on the balance sheet.</p><p>While top-line growth has stalled, CGL conservatively managed operations have protected profitability and allowed accumulation of surplus cash. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7KfjqqFzkdlgfr4SepSy_uSQNwM25Hxsa2rHoTjLIr-J4-kVokfieOfDkYzvN_xFt30VcRgMCqD1CZ2WB3PJWZXUf6fPruflm_XVfqIcIzUeEmVtvw0OcgPrkqC-OQtqbC9LIhXosYmW_JTqz6ZzwZEnK4fqk4QHDzQtQo1fvBqMSLAjEVuO5lWF9bBo/s1163/Cordlife%20Income%20Statement.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="1163" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7KfjqqFzkdlgfr4SepSy_uSQNwM25Hxsa2rHoTjLIr-J4-kVokfieOfDkYzvN_xFt30VcRgMCqD1CZ2WB3PJWZXUf6fPruflm_XVfqIcIzUeEmVtvw0OcgPrkqC-OQtqbC9LIhXosYmW_JTqz6ZzwZEnK4fqk4QHDzQtQo1fvBqMSLAjEVuO5lWF9bBo/s320/Cordlife%20Income%20Statement.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">From SGX Website</td></tr></tbody></table><p><b><i>Negatives</i></b></p><p>The revenue decline may have resulted from intensifying competition and price wars within the industry. According to <a href="https://www.theweddingvowsg.com/cord-blood-banks-singapore/#google_vignette" target="_blank">article</a>, CGL and Stemcord initially dominated the private cord blood storage market in the early 2000s. However, when Coryviva entered in 2014 and SCCB started private services in 2017, they likely captured significant market share due to offering comparable services at lower price points. If the public began viewing these services as similar, the most cost-effective options would naturally gain favor.</p><p>In addition, a general trend of falling birth rates could have also contributed to weaker demand over time. While the business demand may seem predictable, declining national births present a macro headwind to reviving revenues. Thus, this external factor likely impacted and will continue to impact CGL top-line performance as well.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiINAI4nf45YPrbAK8Hx-V8V_FvoomdZk8-rvfJB3CXyWTNqKGnO1FJfOMTc1CAXMrLjGXuK4SEMhcxdaU_8CFePp4-wzwQVi_q-kBBObbkxAdB-p08QluifPOZa8x7LFTnx8yFrp2s23kIqC3HXR_w7-2IqO50NJZIh6eIBaknQmxCKklkcYsECXGOg-c/s1074/Birth%20Rate.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="650" data-original-width="1074" height="194" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiINAI4nf45YPrbAK8Hx-V8V_FvoomdZk8-rvfJB3CXyWTNqKGnO1FJfOMTc1CAXMrLjGXuK4SEMhcxdaU_8CFePp4-wzwQVi_q-kBBObbkxAdB-p08QluifPOZa8x7LFTnx8yFrp2s23kIqC3HXR_w7-2IqO50NJZIh6eIBaknQmxCKklkcYsECXGOg-c/s320/Birth%20Rate.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">From Singstat Website</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>The flat net profits against declining revenues potentially also explain why dividends have remained stagnant between 2014-2022, starting at 1 cent and currently at an even lower amount of 0.9 cents. Interestingly, the company's robust balance sheet provided an opportunity for CGL to adopt a more shareholder-friendly stance. But that didn't happen. Pursuing strategic growth initiatives or increased dividend payouts could have benefited investors given CGL strong financial position.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMzmX59FI9vYYzqnMFvTnj1UIFe1PtHKlKwXW-nyQsUaCYO_eokslLyjdiV8hEILUaeli3h2dCQ7Oby-kGs9JONlvttB1a8yH1hQrZ0MJwP0Q3GmeO8uXYMJ_1rlaemm80EGLK_7rlzhQxLSmVoeiPgnAAgxBPAOYGahyphenhyphenNUezdql1JZ86cwzRDfqnSHyc/s1163/CGL%20Dividend%20payout.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="370" data-original-width="1163" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMzmX59FI9vYYzqnMFvTnj1UIFe1PtHKlKwXW-nyQsUaCYO_eokslLyjdiV8hEILUaeli3h2dCQ7Oby-kGs9JONlvttB1a8yH1hQrZ0MJwP0Q3GmeO8uXYMJ_1rlaemm80EGLK_7rlzhQxLSmVoeiPgnAAgxBPAOYGahyphenhyphenNUezdql1JZ86cwzRDfqnSHyc/s320/CGL%20Dividend%20payout.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">From SGX Website</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b><i>Closing Thoughts</i></b></p><p>In summary, CGL's performance appears substantially influenced by both intensifying competition within the industry and declining birth rates nationally. While profitability has been maintained even through revenue declines, robust long-term growth prospects seem limited under these demand headwinds.</p><p>For me to consider an investment, the share price would need to trade at a significant discount to book value, perhaps around a 0.7x price-to-book ratio. Given alternate prospects available both locally and abroad, I do not plan to reinstate CGL on my watchlist following this review. Opportunities with brighter long-term growth potential, stronger competitive advantages, or wider margins of safety are likely available elsewhere.</p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-79427728567847588892023-11-06T23:20:00.001+08:002023-11-06T23:22:56.415+08:00Trivago's Latest Financial Update and Revised Dividend Dates<p>This is a follow-up to my initial <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/A-Deeper-Look-at-Trivago-s-Special-Dividend--Read-before---Nov------" target="_blank">write-up</a> on Fundflicks regarding Trivago <i>(TRVG)</i>. Alongside the release of the latest financial results, there have been <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/filing/7993034" target="_blank">changes</a> to the ex-date and payment date.</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>The payment date has been revised to November 13, 2023, instead of November 3, 2023.</li><li>Similarly, the ex-date has been shifted to November 14, 2023, instead of November 2, 2023.</li><li>Furthermore, the consolidation of the ADS from 5 to 1 will occur on November 17, 2023.</li><li></li><li>During this period, the ADSs will be traded with a "due bill" that includes the assignment of the right to receive the dividend. This arrangement will continue until the ex-date of November 14, 2023, which is the first business day after the payment date.</li></ul><p></p><p>The most significant information to note is that the <b><u>dividend remains unchanged at €$0.5298</u></b>, and withholding tax still applies to foreign investors.</p><p><i>Additionally, TRVG has announced its latest Q3 FY23 financials:</i></p><p>During this quarter, the company incurred a substantial loss of €$182.6 million, primarily due to higher impairment of indefinite-lived intangible assets and goodwill, amounting to €196.1 million. Without such impairment, TRVG would have been profitable.</p><p>However, the company experienced a 14% year-on-year decrease in revenue for the past three months, and an 8% decrease for the past nine months. The reasons cited for these revenue declines include heightened competition, decreased travel in the US and Europe, and reduced advertising expenditure.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8mLjjw4oZ40KwL1uoxS3XJYzJ4vLkDxvowQkQ_Xuy9vtYrcaZXv9CgcM6pDL3tu-1l-HhIUNzKIK-CAO-SKsv-Nk6e4Thgqfb_vkPw3MDIHwDC5VIUjILnOqcUiy3lnOeJDVeBZoXVQ90Lbz9olsLmjt-BKti0nPh-DeBFNr7dSseNrqamt-LO_TBos/s752/Income%20statement%20of%20Trivago.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="649" data-original-width="752" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB8mLjjw4oZ40KwL1uoxS3XJYzJ4vLkDxvowQkQ_Xuy9vtYrcaZXv9CgcM6pDL3tu-1l-HhIUNzKIK-CAO-SKsv-Nk6e4Thgqfb_vkPw3MDIHwDC5VIUjILnOqcUiy3lnOeJDVeBZoXVQ90Lbz9olsLmjt-BKti0nPh-DeBFNr7dSseNrqamt-LO_TBos/s320/Income%20statement%20of%20Trivago.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Income Statement of TRVG</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhajwymNJ_u1KBAKT9dSsBqIG0xGIkbblmKTSqBvUnVMgYbJJzIDdmUMwX5RB60Yrypwe1GbZYdhyFJraQhgyNGywaYg8es9XPTF-Go92DlBb7cSUf7wQmoXU9oejAGMpCfPitUQ8z39uGLtIcKsWpSSVA3bXJP__9dOG9wxA9mxTk_EqS0p8gfuvNByYE/s776/Balance%20sheet%20of%20Trivago.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="776" data-original-width="616" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhajwymNJ_u1KBAKT9dSsBqIG0xGIkbblmKTSqBvUnVMgYbJJzIDdmUMwX5RB60Yrypwe1GbZYdhyFJraQhgyNGywaYg8es9XPTF-Go92DlBb7cSUf7wQmoXU9oejAGMpCfPitUQ8z39uGLtIcKsWpSSVA3bXJP__9dOG9wxA9mxTk_EqS0p8gfuvNByYE/s320/Balance%20sheet%20of%20Trivago.jpg" width="254" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Balance Sheet of TRVG</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>In my opinion, this represents a fresh start for TRVG, particularly considering the significant impairment of goodwill. Despite this, the balance sheet remains robust. Following the dividend distribution, the price-to-book ratio is expected to be around 0.84x.</p><p style="text-align: center;"><i>Follow Fundflicks <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/fundflicks/" target="_blank">here</a>!</i></p><p>On a less favorable note, the information provided in the <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4646917-trivago-n-v-trvg-q3-2023-earnings-call-transcript" target="_blank">transcript</a> indicates that: </p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Adjusted EBITDA is likely to remain flat next year, even if revenue increases. However, it is anticipated to be approximately €$50 million, primarily due to the projected increase in advertising spending.</li><li>In the short to mid-term, the company's focus will be on growth, potentially at the expense of profitability, although not adjusted EBITDA.</li><li>The performance in the fourth quarter is expected to be stable, likely showing little change.</li></ol><div>Moreover, a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-12/the-presidential-election-is-also-tanking-the-travel-industry" target="_blank">search</a> through the net suggests that the travel industry is expected to underperform during a presidential election year, specifically in 2024.</div><p></p><p><b><i>Closing Thoughts</i></b></p><p>Considering these factors, my opinion on TRVG remains unchanged, and I still hold a small position. It is important to recognize that TRVG operates on a straightforward business model, aiming to become the "Google" of hotel searches by earning revenue through click-throughs to partner websites. This business model offers limited flexibility. Nevertheless, with minimal expenditure, TRVG will be able to accumulate cash reserves within a few years. The balance sheet will remain strong, and it appears that within one year, the adjusted EBITDA will be able to recoup approximately 30% of the special dividend. Ultimately, the successful execution by the new management team is of the utmost importance.</p><p><i>If you find this article interesting, we encourage you to click on the Google advertisement and follow Fundflicks on <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/company/fundflicks/" target="_blank">LinkedIn</a>!</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-69616879050118969852023-10-29T13:00:00.000+08:002023-10-29T13:00:00.146+08:00Developing a Sound Retirement Plan as an Average Joe<p>Recently, my friend and I had a discussion about retirement planning. We are both approaching our 40s and have a young toddler. The scary part was that we will probably be in our 60s when our daughter start to have a stable job.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCRfBxu6bRXtU9a0dgR5_47-wiQFqUJe4Cto2nyaHLwtZ2688mqtlIb6I8a5vuF59hbsRhAcGmd9-mee1m2zkq9Zk2-1whFf1xDT5kO9BI9GZKbsfRwdJ7HKJEz9wSnNcXykMj-GIrRyFZZwEmKjly_vtgWh7EKhVsW4n9o9GA1JOVupajgpmFTCY3v-8" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1013" data-original-width="1500" height="216" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhCRfBxu6bRXtU9a0dgR5_47-wiQFqUJe4Cto2nyaHLwtZ2688mqtlIb6I8a5vuF59hbsRhAcGmd9-mee1m2zkq9Zk2-1whFf1xDT5kO9BI9GZKbsfRwdJ7HKJEz9wSnNcXykMj-GIrRyFZZwEmKjly_vtgWh7EKhVsW4n9o9GA1JOVupajgpmFTCY3v-8" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Image taken from Investopedia</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>One topic we discussed was <a href="https://blog.seedly.sg/us-stock-investing-taxes-and-fees/" target="_blank">estate taxes</a> on custodial accounts for non-U.S. citizens. It is important to be aware that there is a 40% estate tax on foreign nationals with over $60,000 in U.S. assets. This tax could potentially deplete any gains we accumulate over time. Therefore, we understood the need to devise a sound plan to ensure we maintain our wealth in retirement. </p><p>While long-term investing generally has positive outcomes, I believe it will be necessary to withdraw funds from those accounts at a certain stage. However, after withdrawing those funds, where else should the money be directed?</p><p><b>The next destination should meet three criteria: (1) be suitable for average joe, (2) provide future cash flow for retirement needs, and (3) not require establishing a will. </b></p><p>Property did not seem like a viable option, as managing real estate is beyond my current capabilities as an average joe in Singapore. Furthermore, my strengths are in investing.</p><p>For me, continued investing remains the top choice. But if U.S. companies are excluded due to estate tax implications, what other investment classes should I focus on? At this point, Singapore REITs were ruled out due to the long-term outlook and recent interest rate hikes negatively impacting some REIT yields.</p><p>After thorough deliberation, I concluded the following strategy best meets my needs:</p><p style="text-align: left;"><i><b><u>1. Increase contributions to my partner's and my <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Provident_Fund" target="_blank">Central Provident Fund (CPF)</a> accounts.</u></b> </i></p><p style="text-align: left;">The CPF is Singapore's compulsory national pension program providing for retirement, healthcare, education, and housing needs. It is similar to a 401(k). Currently it offers guaranteed returns currently averaging 4% annually with easy nomination of beneficiaries <a href="https://www.moneysense.gov.sg/articles/2018/10/cpf-nominations-what-happens-to-your-cpf-when-you-pass-away#:~:text=CPF%20funds%20cannot%20be%20distributed,much%20each%20person%20should%20receive." target="_blank">without requiring a will</a>. Payouts are also available in retirement.</p><p><i><b><u>2. Invest in DBS, one of Singapore's largest local banks with backing from Temasek. </u></b></i></p><p>It seems a safer long-term holding than REITs through various economic cycles, while still providing dividend income.</p><p><i><b><u>3. Pay off all debts, including housing loans, and transfer surplus funds to joint accounts for automatic distribution avoiding probate.</u></b></i></p><p><i><u><b>4. Continue developing new income streams through hustling. </b></u></i></p><p>The essence of my argument here is that by actively hustling, you can avoid tapping into your CPF funds or relying on dividends. Instead, you have the option to reinvest your earnings in DBS, explore joint names fixed deposits, or simply allow your money to continue growing.</p><p>Of course, with gaining more experience or changing circumstances, my views may evolve in the future. But for now, this multi-faceted strategy balances risk, growth, and secure legacy planning for me.</p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-3558529171596929272023-10-26T12:30:00.007+08:002023-10-26T12:30:00.158+08:00GHY's Strategy for Profitable Drama Financing<p>I've previously <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/04/can-jay-chou-save-ghy-culture-and-media.html" target="_blank">analyzed</a> GHY Culture and Media (GHY)(SGX: XJB) given their close ties to renowned artist Jay Chou. As the production house behind many of Jay's highly lucrative concerts, GHY has demonstrated expertise in large-scale live entertainment events.</p><p>However, I was also curious about their business model in production of Chinese dramas, which tend to involve substantial financial risks compared to concerts. The heavy costs associated with drama production led me to question how GHY could turn a profit in this competitive industry.</p><p>Fortunately, further research provided useful insights into China's drama financing models. A detailed <a href="https://dramapotatoe.com/chinese-drama-entertainment-faq/" target="_blank">write up</a> explained that most projects nowadays are co-produced or already purchased with major streaming platforms from the very beginning. </p><p>As quoted from the website:</p><p><i>“…The majority of dramas now are either co-produced by one of the major streaming platforms or are purchased by the streaming platform before filming even starts, meaning that the drama is guaranteed an airing platform even before they start filming. This decreases the risk involved in a drama never seeing the light – at the very least, it will likely get a web release on a set platform…”</i></p><p>These partnerships ensure dramas have a guaranteed distribution outlet even before filming commences. This pre-sale approach significantly reduces production risks. At minimum, co-produced dramas will receive a streaming release, recovering some costs. The article's analysis implied this model allows companies to offset financial uncertainty by increasing output volume over time.</p><p>GHY appears to be leveraging this strategy successfully. Their recent announcements revealed signing deals for three upcoming dramas. And they forecast additional collaborations in the pipeline.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6MbPdicWWjlOncntxJgrYoHr0kkhOM56wI0Eqi7J9gRsa36MPEFAzHCU7W5naVI-k4VWp4SUQUcOfRt5rLaKxSETpiqAL5xVyN0FthjZuhpFWBuBbBcL-Dig8OU98-Duo9ZorvbW5CzD__MU5kOOOu2Px3H8AjvbJfTykrs80pgZr0CSMjZZ9GkJyBQw/s1379/GHY%20TV%20Drama%201.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1379" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6MbPdicWWjlOncntxJgrYoHr0kkhOM56wI0Eqi7J9gRsa36MPEFAzHCU7W5naVI-k4VWp4SUQUcOfRt5rLaKxSETpiqAL5xVyN0FthjZuhpFWBuBbBcL-Dig8OU98-Duo9ZorvbW5CzD__MU5kOOOu2Px3H8AjvbJfTykrs80pgZr0CSMjZZ9GkJyBQw/s320/GHY%20TV%20Drama%201.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjENEMhUJmvhP7UzYNDLUmq0uC3MFKvQKQ5x8GJ1Rb1ViMhwB12ydswbT1MivH7GAKkWG7IYznJAb47wOy6o1tQOku7kUnO5l77zeH4mtITzgj5QECzmKZgQ7b8si6XHFMzMIiDCOZ4Vm_CjjS0zJht29eoeCV2FTLP_bN26PlAC55c4i1Jm4I0J__dvDw/s752/GHY%20TV%20Drama%202.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="752" height="146" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjENEMhUJmvhP7UzYNDLUmq0uC3MFKvQKQ5x8GJ1Rb1ViMhwB12ydswbT1MivH7GAKkWG7IYznJAb47wOy6o1tQOku7kUnO5l77zeH4mtITzgj5QECzmKZgQ7b8si6XHFMzMIiDCOZ4Vm_CjjS0zJht29eoeCV2FTLP_bN26PlAC55c4i1Jm4I0J__dvDw/s320/GHY%20TV%20Drama%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">GHY Investment Presentation</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Of course, budget overruns during production still pose potential threats to projected returns. However, as both a studio and talent agency, GHY is well-positioned to contain expenses. Their established facilities in Malaysia and management of artists help manage costs internally.</p><p>All in all, GHY's strategic approach to co-productions with streamers exemplifies how entertainment firms can thrive in China's competitive drama market through mitigating financial uncertainty and maximizing production economies of scale. Their concert expertise and integrated operations further strengthen this model.</p><p><i>If you are thinking of watching their Short Form Tik Tok Dramas, do follow them on <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@ghy_tv?_t=8gfDyJglTU2&_r=1" target="_blank">GHY TV</a>.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-37481161113917742692023-10-22T11:16:00.003+08:002023-10-22T11:16:37.752+08:00Don't FOMO into Netflix<p>Netflix <i>(NFLX)</i> reported strong third quarter results that saw its share price increase significantly. Prior to the earnings announcement, I had planned to initiate a position in Netflix but was anticipating weaker performance given recent headwinds facing the company. Unfortunately, as often happens, the market surprised me and I missed an opportunity to invest. And to make matters worse, on the same day I decided to sell put option on Tesla, which in hindsight proved poorly timed. It seems my market intuition left much to be desired.</p><p>Regardless of missing this particular opportunity, I think it's prudent not to hastily FOMO into Netflix merely due to recent share price momentum. There are ongoing labor disputes that meaningfully will impact Netflix's cost structure in 2023 and 2024. </p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Specifically, the Writers Guild of America <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Writers_Guild_of_America_strike#:~:text=From%20May%202%20to%20September,and%20Television%20Producers%20(AMPTP)" target="_blank">strike</a> from May 2023 to September 2023. Significant <a href="https://www.wgacontract2023.org/the-campaign/summary-of-the-2023-wga-mba?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email" target="_blank">changes</a> have taken place in the realm of High Budget Subscription Video on Demand where there has been a substantial rise in foreign streaming residuals and the introduction of new streaming bonuses based on viewership statistics. This particular sector now focuses on creating feature-length projects exclusively for streaming platforms, with budgets exceeding $30 million.</li><li>Meanwhile, SAG-AFTRA actor <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sag-aftra-strike-hollywood-union-actors/" target="_blank">negotiations</a> that began in July have yet to conclude, with unions seeking a levy on each subscriber and also more on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Residual_(entertainment_industry)" target="_blank">residual payment</a> which streaming services do not provide.</li></ul><p></p><p>Notably, during the just-reported third quarter <i>(Q3 FY23)</i>, Netflix incurred no additional costs associated with settling either dispute. Additions to content assets stood at a mere US$2.8 billion, well below the second quarter outlay of US$3.68 billion and meaningfully under the year-ago period's US$4.5 billion. At the same time, Netflix repurchased an impressive $2.5 billion of its own stock, accounting for 76% of all buybacks initiated over the previous nine months.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgVa_4BzwRl04pCV6bsAJ29VHykq_fb_9tC3tq22PV2f19Lw0jvrut1rORacRuY6X-uO2VGd7OPlKs6pnXNG_qKuchlzdaZcVfyDdjCPVfjVIjFR-gk2pk81n4dRrJA0b0vEO2wSshLlIIT5WY9XdQjGY6X0JRqUxrcT67-fvNAzuDh2oT5cWhwWujYv8/s737/Screenshot%202023-10-22%20111447.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="643" data-original-width="737" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgVa_4BzwRl04pCV6bsAJ29VHykq_fb_9tC3tq22PV2f19Lw0jvrut1rORacRuY6X-uO2VGd7OPlKs6pnXNG_qKuchlzdaZcVfyDdjCPVfjVIjFR-gk2pk81n4dRrJA0b0vEO2wSshLlIIT5WY9XdQjGY6X0JRqUxrcT67-fvNAzuDh2oT5cWhwWujYv8/s320/Screenshot%202023-10-22%20111447.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Netflix Q3 FY23 Cashflow Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>While strong cash generation enabled these capital allocation decisions, I find it perplexing that Netflix chose not to pay off its debt and instead opted to use the additional funds for buybacks. Furthermore, <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/4011531-netflix-ads-tier-revenue-short-term-cfo-says" target="_blank">comments from the CFO</a> about the advertising tier not significantly impacting growth seem aimed at justifying the well-timed buyback rather than objectively portraying the business outlook.</p><p>In conclusion, I remain interested in Netflix as a long-term investment opportunity. However, with significant labor negotiation overhang and production spend set to meaningfully increase next year, the risk/reward profile at current levels gives me pause. <u><b>I'll wait for a wider margin of safety rather than chase recent share price momentum.</b></u></p><p><i>Here is an <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Is-netflix-a-good-stock-to-buy-An-indepth-DCF-Model-Analysis" target="_blank">article</a> on the discounted cashflow valuation on Netflix written by Brian.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-61231811776427849692023-10-12T12:00:00.008+08:002023-10-12T12:00:00.142+08:00Making Your Money Work Harder For You<p>With fixed deposit rates currently ranging <a href="https://blog.seedly.sg/best-fixed-deposit-rate-singapore/" target="_blank">from 2.7% to over 3.6%</a>, there are smarter strategies for passive investors to generate higher returns. </p><p><b><u>One approach is to sell cash-secured put options against your fixed deposits.</u></b></p><p><b><i><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhyphenhyphen3rl74mv1415hdd1gbvGTe7T8Ih8knFqdyDAZNHVErRAsxn0vcbbrj9QDmJi_rWZ97tpRuNHmY6V6jQ39YCf01MQKVRiLTFTXru47pEVH5haNQJiFVlJzE06L-0Baa7aJa51llhefgpd-FEQzUwB8SmvNAReYqlWSWPl6fSl1U-IZWtiUcp8PMCAkNU/s1201/cash-secured-puts-trade-example.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="682" data-original-width="1201" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhyphenhyphen3rl74mv1415hdd1gbvGTe7T8Ih8knFqdyDAZNHVErRAsxn0vcbbrj9QDmJi_rWZ97tpRuNHmY6V6jQ39YCf01MQKVRiLTFTXru47pEVH5haNQJiFVlJzE06L-0Baa7aJa51llhefgpd-FEQzUwB8SmvNAReYqlWSWPl6fSl1U-IZWtiUcp8PMCAkNU/s320/cash-secured-puts-trade-example.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Cash Secure Put Option</span></td></tr></tbody></table></i></b></p><p>Selling put options requires the cash be held in reserve in case the stock price falls below the option's strike price at expiration. However, by treating your fixed deposit cash as collateral, you can generate additional income from option premiums while keeping your principal aside earning an extra yield as well.</p><p><i>Some key considerations for this strategy:</i></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Thoroughly understand options and their risk-reward mechanics before trading. Options derive value from expected stock price movements based on a company's fundamentals.</li><li>Only write put options on companies you wouldn't mind owning long-term if assigned the shares. Carefully research businesses to ensure solid fundamentals and prospects.</li><li>Target options with minimum 6 month expirations to benefit from <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/timedecay.asp#:~:text=Time%20decay%20is%20a%20measure,a%20profit%20from%20the%20trade." target="_blank">time decay</a> and give the underlying stock breathing room to appreciate over the longer run.</li><li>The premium proceeds can be reinvested to boost your fixed deposit returns. However, do not automatically roll over deposits in case the put is assigned and that cash is needed to purchase shares.</li><li>Make sure put option expiration occurs after the fixed deposit maturity to avoid needing to withdraw funds prematurely.</li><li>When choosing potential stocks, large cap companies with high relative volatility tend to offer more premium for selling puts. </li></ol><p></p><p>For me, a company like Tesla, a leader in the burgeoning electric vehicle industry, presents an ideal opportunity for this strategy. Despite experiencing frequent volatility in its share price in the short-run, I believe Tesla possesses formidable long-term growth drivers that make it well positioned for continued success <i>(probably write another article in the future)</i>. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUaru3Wi9RXkmbX_1fzS5KLDDAx47m2MkcT6Tdcz0tln8Vxdm006VWXpZO6lB4yO196_TGkqCVT2j7Al4OROTUUQ36nJ3yEKOY9ewLzJ7lKf9ioiP7HLBLgdootk-Vtfj7AP5lVJGdrQa9d4X10cIfmmCJa4Go6b9AF9R7ypZkv2XgHT6Lig0x11ssbpM/s752/Tesla.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="339" data-original-width="752" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUaru3Wi9RXkmbX_1fzS5KLDDAx47m2MkcT6Tdcz0tln8Vxdm006VWXpZO6lB4yO196_TGkqCVT2j7Al4OROTUUQ36nJ3yEKOY9ewLzJ7lKf9ioiP7HLBLgdootk-Vtfj7AP5lVJGdrQa9d4X10cIfmmCJa4Go6b9AF9R7ypZkv2XgHT6Lig0x11ssbpM/s320/Tesla.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Tesla Model 3</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>By carefully selecting quality companies in high-growth markets that also trade with volatility, investors can sell options to generate additional income from their fixed deposits while maintaining downside protection. With discipline, such techniques can help maximize returns for fixed income portfolios in today's low interest rate environment.</p><p><i>I have written this <a href="https://x.com/InvestingTub/status/1705475889780424711?s=20" target="_blank">strategy on X</a> as well.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-82395777590426662242023-10-08T15:05:00.001+08:002023-10-08T15:05:00.142+08:00TUB Path to 100% - Oct 2023<p>It has been a turbulent year so far. I have not followed through on my <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/05/tub-path-to-100-may-2023.html" target="_blank">May resolution</a> to restart regular blogging. Instead, my blogging endeavors have been sporadic and far from the original plan. The demands of my startup job, often keeping me at work past 7pm exhausted, have delayed my writing plans. Still, I've tried to keep providing updates through other platforms like <a href="https://twitter.com/InvestingTub" target="_blank">X</a>, my Telegram group and <i>to a lesser extent, Facebook and InvestingNote.</i></p><p>Though my full-time work schedule is hectic, I've contributed articles to an intriguing new platform called <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article" target="_blank">Fundflicks</a>. I managed to produce a minimum of two articles per month in August and September. These articles primarily revolve around companies in which I have ownership, either through equity or options. This site, currently in beta testing, allows me to share research on specific companies. <i>Check it out and register for free if you're interested.</i></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQO8X1jNwReLTsl8zraYpYViL4N1LP4BiY8FytYzrmJxdGVWwNtUwaUvMbDbVD3KIpIShxN6Jem4qlbBYy_XzJlsRUvMs01GZV_1N3XGc9rWC-pwfXYdm18bvQf2ucq464DBJxxcWrMnITD9P9Jcib1C9Gn7bvXV-Nv0jq6FA4L12hVQio568ioe2f8HA/s346/mm_logo.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="80" data-original-width="346" height="74" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQO8X1jNwReLTsl8zraYpYViL4N1LP4BiY8FytYzrmJxdGVWwNtUwaUvMbDbVD3KIpIShxN6Jem4qlbBYy_XzJlsRUvMs01GZV_1N3XGc9rWC-pwfXYdm18bvQf2ucq464DBJxxcWrMnITD9P9Jcib1C9Gn7bvXV-Nv0jq6FA4L12hVQio568ioe2f8HA/s320/mm_logo.png" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>With limited time, I've had to prioritize. For now, I've halted my posts on Seeking Alpha, focusing my writing for Fundflicks. I'm also experimenting with <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Personal%20Finance" target="_blank">personal finance</a> topics relevant to my stage of life. As for this blog, I have decided to pause all previously established series except for <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Path%20to%20100%25" target="_blank">TUB Path to 100%</a>. Going forward, my aim is to publish at least one post <i>(possibly on this series)</i> per month.<p></p><p>Now that I've addressed that, let me provide an overview of my portfolio. It has continue to struggle in this high interest rate market environment. Many of my small cap holdings have continued to plunge dramatically, increasing my losses. Though I hesitate to calculate the exact figure, my portfolio appears down approximately 70% since I first established it. Hard lessons have been learnt. When interest rates stay elevated, small caps simply cannot drive outsized gains.</p><p>I expect the period of elevated interest rates to continue. Looking ahead, I plan to transition majority of my direct equity holdings toward large cap companies. These mature businesses often demonstrate greater stability and earning power relative to small-cap firms, especially in a high interest rate environment. This year's performance supports that viewpoint, as the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index has lagged the standard S&P 500 index, underscoring the outperformance mainly driven by several heavyweight companies.</p><p>I will also employ options contracts to prudently gain targeted exposure to promising small-cap stocks. This balanced approach of shifting to large-cap stocks for the core portfolio, while maintaining options-based involvement in selective smaller players, aims to better navigate the current high interest rate environment. By adapting my investment strategy in a calibrated manner, I hope to steadily guide my holdings toward renewed growth over the long-term.</p><p><i>My Current Portfolio vs <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/05/tub-path-to-100-may-2023.html" target="_blank">May 2023</a> (According to Cost basis):</i></p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li><b>APPS</b></li><li><b>RICK</b></li><li><b>TSLA</b></li><li><b>PLTR</b></li><li><b>FVRR</b> - Read <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Fiverr%20International%20Ltd%3A%20A%20Long-Term%20Investment%20Opportunity%20Amidst%20Market%20Misunderstandings" target="_blank">Article</a> on Fundflick</li><li><b>HDSN </b>- Read <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Hudson%20Technologies%2C%20Inc.%3A%20Profiting%20from%20Sustainable%20Solutions%20in%20the%20HVAC%20Industry" target="_blank">Article</a> on Fundflick</li><li><b>AMZN</b></li><li><b>GOOG</b></li><li><b>Keppel Infrastructure Trust</b> <i>(SGX: A7RU)</i></li><li><b>TSM</b></li><li><b>MSFT</b></li><li><b>DTC</b> - Read <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Solo%20Brands%20Inc%3A%20An%20Innovative%20Direct-to-Consumer%20Play%20in%20Outdoor%20Lifestyle%20Retail" target="_blank">Article</a> on Fundflick</li><li><b>9988</b></li><li><b>FUBO</b> - Read <a href="https://fundflicks.net/article/Revisiting%20FUBO%20Inc%3A%20A%20Compelling%20Risk-Reward%20Opportunity%20in%20Live%20Sports%20Streaming" target="_blank">Article</a> on Fundflick</li><li><b>HUT</b> <i>(options)</i></li><li><b>CRNT</b> <i>(options)</i></li></ol><p></p><p>Compared to May 23, I have largely divested from my previous Singapore-based equity holdings, with the sole remaining direct position being Keppel Infrastructure Trust. My portfolio is now almost entirely devoid of cash reserves. Going forward, my plan is to exit my DTC and FUBO position in the coming month, maintaining only options exposure to capture future upside if conditions improve. This reallocation of assets should allow me to replenish some capital reserves. However, current market weakness has not provided an optimal exit point as of yet.</p><p>Looking further ahead, I aim to restrict my portfolio to holdings in 10 companies maximum, with the balance allocated to options contracts. 2023 is shaping up to be another year focused on reorganizing my strategy. I am already evaluating which positions have the strongest long-term potential and analyzing catalysts that could materialize in 2024 and beyond.</p><p>While the challenging market environment has weighed on my performance, I believe these difficult periods have helped strengthen my investing approach. Continued reflection and responsiveness to changing conditions should better position me to generate returns going forward. Though patience will be required, I am confident my adapted strategy will ultimately prove successful. </p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-73878777978085148062023-10-04T12:52:00.002+08:002023-10-04T12:52:14.966+08:00Optimizing Credit Card Rewards Through Strategic Card Usage Consolidation<p>For many credit card holders like myself, it can be challenging to keep track of multiple cards offering a variety of rewards programs. Frequent flyer miles, cash back, rewards – the landscape of credit card perks is vast and ever-changing. In the past, I found myself holding onto cards long past their usefulness simply due to their rewards program. However, as I took time to analyze my recent card usage patterns, I realized a more strategic approach was needed.</p><p>Rather than accumulating a disorganized collection of cards with modest, scattered rewards, I decided to consolidate my spending onto a single card optimized for my regular expenses. This would allow me to maximize the rewards I earn in a way that provides tangible value. Previously, accumulating rewards slowly through small cash back amounts or occasional bonus categories didn't give me a strong sense of return on investment. I wanted rewards that could be redeemed for experiential goals, like overseas travel.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg18DRqzU0T7L1slCSZzo5GwHPfBatrvbHSrk6vTuGX1RL95SoqOGauDauoei4x7RrDuXDWGnGnJAkXIriT-xd7M97845qIoDmILG9vW6JtTeeQfKzeWMHofEaOftHtTw4ISBMrM77iMhIIzo6-pjHyKgE6-pCZ4xVt2Oj3jpyYwxzkI4XIr2lPANIRCtU/s752/SCB%20journey%20card%20pic.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="329" data-original-width="752" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg18DRqzU0T7L1slCSZzo5GwHPfBatrvbHSrk6vTuGX1RL95SoqOGauDauoei4x7RrDuXDWGnGnJAkXIriT-xd7M97845qIoDmILG9vW6JtTeeQfKzeWMHofEaOftHtTw4ISBMrM77iMhIIzo6-pjHyKgE6-pCZ4xVt2Oj3jpyYwxzkI4XIr2lPANIRCtU/s320/SCB%20journey%20card%20pic.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">SCB Journey Credit Card</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>After reviewing the programs available, I settled on the SCB Journey credit card <i>(Not a sponsored post, no link here)</i> for its outsized rewards on transport and grocery purchases, comprising a large share of my monthly spending. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8cXKA9fAS8aIawzWEqcdGJtK-TaPOJ57jGL7YmtQc7dlGrwtbXBIMFG4BDvtQHxDSUwRqdMpvkvL5GdEqricLwLpEeVmTde8oUOPKt9u2PofjxVO-aXdaQiZjvrBdICelVcEx4s9M-o8h1Kk3RmG9J8idZwDWG-X4_PAgiHZhIMqMcq89UmrVHCqRCOA/s752/SCB%20journey%20card.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="404" data-original-width="752" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8cXKA9fAS8aIawzWEqcdGJtK-TaPOJ57jGL7YmtQc7dlGrwtbXBIMFG4BDvtQHxDSUwRqdMpvkvL5GdEqricLwLpEeVmTde8oUOPKt9u2PofjxVO-aXdaQiZjvrBdICelVcEx4s9M-o8h1Kk3RmG9J8idZwDWG-X4_PAgiHZhIMqMcq89UmrVHCqRCOA/w400-h215/SCB%20journey%20card.gif" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">SCB Journey Credit Card T&Cs</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><i>You can also read this <a href="https://blog.seedly.sg/mcc-codes-singapore-for-credit-cards/" target="_blank">Seedly post</a> to understand the merchant codes.</i></p><p>Earning 7.5 reward points per dollar in these categories translates to <a href="https://milelion.com/2023/02/12/standard-chartered-no-longer-pools-points-for-krisflyer-miles-transfers/" target="_blank">2.5 Krisflyer miles</a> earned – allowing me to accumulate flight awards every couple years with disciplined on-card spending. By focusing exclusively on this card, I avoid the fragmented approach of the past where rewards balances grew slowly across multiple accounts.</p><p>Strategic credit card management, like wise investing, is about optimizing potential returns. For me, consolidation onto a single rewards leader provides clarity, discipline and the ability to redeem miles for memorable experiences – achieving true satisfaction from my credit card usage. With a plan in place, I'm looking forward to seeing the rewards add up over time through consistent spending in bonus categories.</p><p><i>Here's my attempt at an article on personal finance. If you find it helpful, feel free to share it with others and click on the advertisement!</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned,</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-37387516025506997002023-08-21T12:00:00.001+08:002023-08-21T12:00:00.140+08:00TUB Assert - Beng Kuang Marine's Financial Resurgence<p><b>Still Vested</b></p><p>I have previously covered <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Beng%20Kuang%20Marine" target="_blank">Beng Kuang Marine</a> in several articles, and I'm excited to share the latest update on their financials. On August 11, 2023, the company released its six-month financial report, highlighting two crucial points:</p><p>(1) Remarkably, the company has achieved a <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/06/tub-assert-beng-kuang-marine-turnover.html" target="_blank">turnaround</a> and generated a profit without relying on gains from shipyard sales. This outcome exceeded my expectations. The thriving <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/02/beng-kuang-marine-poised-for-growth-as.html" target="_blank">FPSO and FSO</a> market during the period of high oil prices, surpassing $100 per barrel, undoubtedly contributed to this success.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvF9eqNmlydphum-yrd4Xy26yfSE14DJ9S7sLAIvnoEJbLBPCbsZykU211W-BNc5Zho1qfJTZys1z39mUY6fQCmEMNK95r-avKUL6tXkcFdK8Q-uNiQG_be88pgY3P-S_2W4VQB51zOLjywcG_ZXX8wj0vd1Nz9sVh0AJ3MC_Lfv8ey2yR_wJAIEyZl8w/s752/Income%20statement.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="752" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvF9eqNmlydphum-yrd4Xy26yfSE14DJ9S7sLAIvnoEJbLBPCbsZykU211W-BNc5Zho1qfJTZys1z39mUY6fQCmEMNK95r-avKUL6tXkcFdK8Q-uNiQG_be88pgY3P-S_2W4VQB51zOLjywcG_ZXX8wj0vd1Nz9sVh0AJ3MC_Lfv8ey2yR_wJAIEyZl8w/s320/Income%20statement.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA8zVFCBpxD2pGq6HSPRFs9h2rx8AiUkzIE_0L5Z4foITzBOMjtcm3xPDNBodBmas4-zMvjap10H6eQmje3E1-Pq6LNa4j9Y_ka4QQ1N9DL597H2fWyMl1ORZFthFNZddIeo1zaWWixzVfBdSyYP655SPfszCZmxdcIeYGcpX4CpgNhZ8fG1fAhM9D9Ms/s752/Breakdown%20reve.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="516" data-original-width="752" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhA8zVFCBpxD2pGq6HSPRFs9h2rx8AiUkzIE_0L5Z4foITzBOMjtcm3xPDNBodBmas4-zMvjap10H6eQmje3E1-Pq6LNa4j9Y_ka4QQ1N9DL597H2fWyMl1ORZFthFNZddIeo1zaWWixzVfBdSyYP655SPfszCZmxdcIeYGcpX4CpgNhZ8fG1fAhM9D9Ms/s320/Breakdown%20reve.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: HY2023 Financials</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>As quoted from the press release, <i>"The Group’s IE continues to be its core revenue generator with revenue growth of 7.5% in 1H2023, with its 51%-owned subsidiary, Asian Sealand Offshore and Marine Pte Ltd (“ASOM”), being the main revenue contributor of IE’s 1H2023 sales as a result of increased business volume from higher demand for FPSO and FSO contracting services...ASOM has diversified its geographical scope of work from South Africa to South America and China...as at 30 June 2023, ASOM has <b>an order book of S$8.8 million</b>."</i></p><p>(2) Additionally, the Group has entered into sale and purchase agreements for the sale of land in Batam, Kabiland, and a tugboat, resulting in aggregate proceeds of S$19.5 million. As of June 30, 2023, the assets held-for-sale related to these transactions amounted to S$6.05 million. If all the funds are used to pay off debts, the net worth of the company will increase by $13 million, surpassing $17 million. Notably, the current market capitalization is just over $15 million. This implies that the price-to-book value ratio will fall below 1.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1TyD4Pvm9r4LgFkmBYLsgZr1FQdgZUDN6gbWB0JIJ5kFcU-Ujw1DKPt6y_5kgDh2bNGFGS4L3Bx_0Ti9vCj4_OuBlDdvo54t661l5FnvE4UNfb46v2AuqwI6dbgs8qu04RMnLrR68QXLz84WmeSEWbg6cdlaXCabCI4klorYm4O0cwMZ16X-ua7zCN5I/s776/balance%20Sheet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="776" data-original-width="421" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1TyD4Pvm9r4LgFkmBYLsgZr1FQdgZUDN6gbWB0JIJ5kFcU-Ujw1DKPt6y_5kgDh2bNGFGS4L3Bx_0Ti9vCj4_OuBlDdvo54t661l5FnvE4UNfb46v2AuqwI6dbgs8qu04RMnLrR68QXLz84WmeSEWbg6cdlaXCabCI4klorYm4O0cwMZ16X-ua7zCN5I/s320/balance%20Sheet.jpg" width="174" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: HY2023 Financials</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL65PSLbQKCycrfT-k34o4bPN0QXFmmZOWYiecxIQkMCnEcZADbm-NnO5cbOWRu6vHDhEHRaJ2JpRdgLfbUHSrvlO3xeT_oQklG1hJ7CCReJB4B7Jr8XDfQApkttQerm5Iz_8TkJMvhZl7A-Iwh7AoD583hk_KlKO3D35N3ah2tKwVqfQprxAYo1FQKPg/s752/BKM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="274" data-original-width="752" height="117" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgL65PSLbQKCycrfT-k34o4bPN0QXFmmZOWYiecxIQkMCnEcZADbm-NnO5cbOWRu6vHDhEHRaJ2JpRdgLfbUHSrvlO3xeT_oQklG1hJ7CCReJB4B7Jr8XDfQApkttQerm5Iz_8TkJMvhZl7A-Iwh7AoD583hk_KlKO3D35N3ah2tKwVqfQprxAYo1FQKPg/s320/BKM.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: SGX website</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Considering the profitability achieved and the price-to-book value of less than 1, there is a strong possibility that when the full-year results are released, the share price will experience a significant increase as investors recognize this hidden gem of a turnaround. </p><p><i>Stay Tuned for the next TUB Assert.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-76890254662128596572023-08-18T21:46:00.003+08:002023-08-18T21:46:25.238+08:00TUB Assert: Recession Fears Are Overblown<p>It's been quite some time since my last article, but I'm excited to share that I've been working on a new collaboration which is currently in progress. I appreciate your patience, and I promise that the details will be revealed in due time.</p><p>In recent discussions with colleagues, the topic of recession has resurfaced. It can be challenging to express contrarian ideas, especially when working in the finance sector, as it's not always easy for people to believe alternative viewpoints. However, I firmly believe that we won't experience a recession on a global scale, similar to the one we faced in 2008/2009. I say this because I've personally experienced the depths of that economic downturn.</p><p>I've dedicated a significant amount of my <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/03/navigating-current-financial-market.html" target="_blank">writing</a> to explain why I hold this perspective, and I want to take this opportunity to remind everyone of my opinions on why a recession is unlikely:</p><p></p><b><i>We are prepared:</i></b> The fact that everyone is talking about a potential recession indicates that people are cautious and taking measures to prepare for it. However, history has shown that recessions tend to occur when we least expect them, during times of extreme bullishness.<br /><p></p><p><i><b>Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements:</b></i> I've previously discussed the significance of these <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search?q=fed+repo+rate">agreements</a>, and they remain at a substantial level, surpassing US$1.794 trillion. The movement of these agreements directly opposes the shifts in the equity market. More agreements lead to a drop in the equity market as funds are kept aside. Conversely, fewer agreements indicate a rising equity market as funds are utilized for equity purchases.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDSqWrUl8VOGJoe7AYYkPhiEqerTfeyeMdAwpNo0fZgTyw6zFKSwtwv5RY56O6wAWpDKZi-sQGPi2x8JKJPofnisL2M-UCEZJUl8KO2kQv8a70RxaGAMukptzAtbZctSHu4kr1iUKAw3ff08Rmstj92_JycsEp3A_PuT3DTG1NvPqaHXFVbWD4cgn8nVg/s752/Fed%20repo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="752" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhDSqWrUl8VOGJoe7AYYkPhiEqerTfeyeMdAwpNo0fZgTyw6zFKSwtwv5RY56O6wAWpDKZi-sQGPi2x8JKJPofnisL2M-UCEZJUl8KO2kQv8a70RxaGAMukptzAtbZctSHu4kr1iUKAw3ff08Rmstj92_JycsEp3A_PuT3DTG1NvPqaHXFVbWD4cgn8nVg/w400-h203/Fed%20repo.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Fred Economic Data</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p><b><i>Record cash reserves:</i></b> Many companies currently hold substantial cash reserves, yet they are refraining from spending. <i>In one of my upcoming collaboration pieces, I will delve into a company that exemplifies this trend. Stay tuned for that!</i></p><p><b><i>Increased <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/us-treasury-bond-spree-could-jolt-markets-if-leveraged-bets-unravel-2023-06-21/" target="_blank">US Treasury bond sales</a>:</i></b> The primary factor contributing to the decline in the US market can be attributed to the recent increase in the US Treasury's quarterly refunding of longer-term Treasuries, specifically from $96 billion to $102 billion. As a result of this adjustment, there is now a reduced availability of cash within the market. This shift in the financial landscape has prompted investors to reallocate their funds from equity investments to treasury bonds. Consequently, this movement of capital has played a significant role in the downward trajectory observed in the current equity markets.</p><p><b><i>Isolated issues:</i></b> The recent US banking crisis and the ongoing China property issues are confined to specific sectors and countries, rather than being widespread. These isolated incidents do not indicate a broader global recession.</p><p><b><i>Strong economy with steady consumer spending:</i></b> The economy remains relatively robust, as evidenced by the still relatively high supercore inflation rate. Consumers continue to spend, while also maintaining healthy savings.</p><p>In summary, while risks are present, the widespread expectation of a recession, coupled with the strong financial positions of companies, suggests that a recession may not materialize immediately, if at all. For now, <b>the economy displays resilience. </b></p><p><i>Stay Tuned for the next TUB Assert. </i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-71192905499414376212023-06-28T21:36:00.002+08:002023-06-28T21:36:36.296+08:00TUB Assert - Beng Kuang Marine Turnover is Almost Complete!<div><b>Vested.</b></div><div><br /></div><div>I have previously written about <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Beng%20Kuang%20Marine" target="_blank">Beng Kuang Marine</a> <i>(BKM)</i> on two occasions. Following my February 2023 <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/02/beng-kuang-marine-poised-for-growth-as.html" target="_blank">article</a>, I stated that the industry outlook would be favorable for BKM. Subsequently BKM's share price rose from $0.049 to $0.072, a gain of 46%.</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_XyhG5mPdGPPVdchLWTVxjzjtwM6FCMTMXcCUUEgr8TEJQ1y9AGJ05H29VHmYiYOL4y5e7_HcPeJj7c3nqILgn4vF06gcHPiQbZZ1l5UR6WVpXhjSJlMLr-kYodxiyEnfuW607GGoRko-dDfBuzrLJKfQ1ivfYXDhz5uy3TbcnzzmPPwnF2cbRizje-4/s752/BKM%20share%20price.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="295" data-original-width="752" height="126" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_XyhG5mPdGPPVdchLWTVxjzjtwM6FCMTMXcCUUEgr8TEJQ1y9AGJ05H29VHmYiYOL4y5e7_HcPeJj7c3nqILgn4vF06gcHPiQbZZ1l5UR6WVpXhjSJlMLr-kYodxiyEnfuW607GGoRko-dDfBuzrLJKfQ1ivfYXDhz5uy3TbcnzzmPPwnF2cbRizje-4/s320/BKM%20share%20price.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">BKM Share Price. Source: Yahoo Finance</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>I also wrote a series of <a href="https://twitter.com/InvestingTub/status/1673345164369182723?s=20" target="_blank">tweets</a> on my Twitter account <i>(follow me!)</i> about oil prices, which I believe will remain at least flat until December 2024. This will further benefit BKM's business as more FPSOs will be brought to them for maintenance.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, after the article, the full year results were released and showed significant losses from operations. Equity fell from $18 million to $4 million. The current ratio was less than 1.</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhcKjmHwjidjwgHWqinqzHccpENcqmsAVliGD5gd8rT0jA1ahs1B5_rB81PZagMwYdt2azOnjk87rm6QIM1gXSmEebFdt6GXMM3uXKl2KCcjXVVBcaFzg7tkR1xCnanNDHvdT6F3t5f7_JGD_4oFFjUh2WAEML7u0PpNSRfVh9Ddowvm3YFYXJzgl4nrQ/s752/BKM%20income%20statement.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="462" data-original-width="752" height="197" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhcKjmHwjidjwgHWqinqzHccpENcqmsAVliGD5gd8rT0jA1ahs1B5_rB81PZagMwYdt2azOnjk87rm6QIM1gXSmEebFdt6GXMM3uXKl2KCcjXVVBcaFzg7tkR1xCnanNDHvdT6F3t5f7_JGD_4oFFjUh2WAEML7u0PpNSRfVh9Ddowvm3YFYXJzgl4nrQ/s320/BKM%20income%20statement.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">BKM FY2022 Income Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGDj3u3MuHLKa94403IHfDRrDqqzaQ4UYuNZlS0o02Hh-TwurJZ1bcjVHOpvMZZ5Ngzel-6FlrgQNCtmT86YcGMBqwM9o6VixEeljvkVMG_AiK4qxHPRQr7Xw343buHFJqzZZf4YURVmF5uRLGVuDu09geJeHdnQt3cNVchbifihS3WlJ-2JI9INz_xsk/s751/BKM%20balance%20sheet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="751" data-original-width="630" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGDj3u3MuHLKa94403IHfDRrDqqzaQ4UYuNZlS0o02Hh-TwurJZ1bcjVHOpvMZZ5Ngzel-6FlrgQNCtmT86YcGMBqwM9o6VixEeljvkVMG_AiK4qxHPRQr7Xw343buHFJqzZZf4YURVmF5uRLGVuDu09geJeHdnQt3cNVchbifihS3WlJ-2JI9INz_xsk/s320/BKM%20balance%20sheet.jpg" width="268" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">BKM FY2022 Balance Sheet</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>But if we focus on the positives, net cash from operations was actually positive. Liabilities reduced, especially borrowings. And revenue increased.</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPV_N8foXRWcuP3AhdXyCMY26MwBpXSE_-uUD12XD1BAnKVTag5rBwmFEGUKaLtBFZC7qlXnjD72_V2YmQZRQ9pdnKGYJZ8of9TiG8ZCfmLpzfvqDWODai3pp25yxv_cbE4oqvJP1736K6ILsnUJZ5jrBztk9S-H6s4bXr18_69013sWR9Vg3giJtnvQ8/s509/BKM%20cash.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="509" data-original-width="489" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPV_N8foXRWcuP3AhdXyCMY26MwBpXSE_-uUD12XD1BAnKVTag5rBwmFEGUKaLtBFZC7qlXnjD72_V2YmQZRQ9pdnKGYJZ8of9TiG8ZCfmLpzfvqDWODai3pp25yxv_cbE4oqvJP1736K6ILsnUJZ5jrBztk9S-H6s4bXr18_69013sWR9Vg3giJtnvQ8/s320/BKM%20cash.jpg" width="307" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">BKM FY2022 Cashflow Statement</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div><br /></div><div>On April 12, 2023, BKM <a href="https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/PS5HA7DOQWFNF5HX/da3a45aaa6d029b96ce736badb3c0ba36afaaae3148bf5da06b62770a4d2845c" target="_blank">sold</a> 1/3 of its Batam shipyard for $8.6 million. On June 23, 2023, BKM <a href="https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-announcements/Y0ZDMZQW1G9ODIMO/21506fca7d441674d230df6dc22ce19e9df33775e9902ba1cb9e1f8f622636ec" target="_blank">sold</a> another 1/3 for $9.895 million.</div><div><br /></div><div>There were six interesting aspects of the reports:</div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Based on the unaudited management accounts of the Seller for 31 December 2022, the total net book value of the Land that were sold is S$5.311m. The Consideration represents a S$12.902m excess over the net book value of the Land as at 31 December 2022. </li><li>The term of the lease for the Batam Shipyard expires on 18 April 2037, and has been fully paid in advance.</li><li>The Land has a total area of 100,970 square metres which is approximately one-third of the total land area comprising the Batam Shipyard. </li><li>The fair value of the Batam Shipyard (comprising the land and the buildings) as at 16 January 2023 is IDR 411,506,600,000 (being S$35.30million). </li><li>The fair value of the Lands that were sold were S$19.69m</li><li>The Land comprises part of the Batam Shipyard that has remained under-utilised since FY2014 due to downturn in the offshore oil and gas sector.</li></ol></div><div><div>These were interesting because:</div><div><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>BKM is likely to report the $12.9 million gain as profit in its upcoming HY2023 financial results likely around August 12, 2023. Even if the gain is not reported in the HY2023 results, it will certainly be reported in BKM's FY2023 results released next year.</li><li>Other than the commission paid, there were no additional costs associated with the sales. As a result, BKM will be able to use the S$18.495 million in cash proceeds to pay down debt. With debts totaling around S$22 million as of December 2023, most of the debt will be repaid. This will significantly increase the current ratio above 1 and greatly improve equity levels as well.</li><li>BKM will also record an additional revaluation surplus of over S$15 million in its income statement and balance sheet for either HY2023 or FY2023.</li><li>The Batam shipyard was already underutilized. Therefore, the sales did not have a detrimental impact on BKM's existing operations.</li></ol></div><div>Great news continues to come in as of 28 Jun 2023 - in addition to previous positive developments, the two tugboats responsible for causing significant losses have been sold for approximately S$2m. Now that they have been sold, BKM can put the money from the sale to good use.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>In summary, BKM's market cap remains under S$15 million at this point in time, even though they have recouped almost S$12.9 million in profit from selling the lands. It is important to note that the sale will also significantly improve BKM's balance sheet. With these positive developments, it's expected that BKM's turnaround will be fully accomplished this year.</div><div><br /></div><div><i>Stay Tuned for the next TUB Assert. </i></div>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-91824848087321139782023-05-10T00:32:00.003+08:002023-05-10T00:32:43.578+08:00TUB Assert - Tesla's Megapack Opportunity in the Solar Boom<p>In the course of my work, I have seen a sudden new strength and demand in the solar industry around late March to April of this year. This new demand is highly likely a realization after the Russia-Ukraine war.</p><p>I still remember, after that realization, I checked the silver price. Technically, it was up year-to-date.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFhvTgEKhlsncW9tchSCxcRU_Bfn83OKw04UeZTAans6dkO67_7JkkMXlzsakFqUQ7WGShpsPdBpjY_NHoiAc7XXT-v8ZpTd9xt88VZO_8S43J7xMWdbepjiVjUxo6QJaMGGFWEVqi4fVTRAh875W5ToQtUjRQn9n2-rPY-3TQviezheg5CX3sfL-i/s579/Silver%20Price.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="408" data-original-width="579" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFhvTgEKhlsncW9tchSCxcRU_Bfn83OKw04UeZTAans6dkO67_7JkkMXlzsakFqUQ7WGShpsPdBpjY_NHoiAc7XXT-v8ZpTd9xt88VZO_8S43J7xMWdbepjiVjUxo6QJaMGGFWEVqi4fVTRAh875W5ToQtUjRQn9n2-rPY-3TQviezheg5CX3sfL-i/s320/Silver%20Price.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Silver Price. Source: Investing.com</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>This was the same scenario for the silver mining companies. The previously undervalued ones had also gone up along with the silver price.</p><p><i>Oh...If you still don’t know, silver is one of the main raw materials for solar panels. In fact, one of the main industrial uses for silver is in solar panels.</i></p><p>Thus, I moved on from them and started looking at solar panel manufacturers and related companies in the industry. To be honest, their year-to-date charts did not show that they had risen significantly. But I remembered finding them too expensive from a valuation perspective. Basically, none of them had shown a significant fall from grace.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnaO2GuQnQJvq44elts9btPK0lxqbS1mHr5aEJ1o0WfggpSoIpfx5WyZvIY2CyS7En0jAIL3gYw8onn77hiVT8sIr-EcOaZSf5fNo8CCLA0bK5rKzdufu79NK7dQ_sA5aN-hpzLaQ2PoslBIafxarnQOfRB4r9qc3E5MFPSj-XhrFxX2dtXjmIvhtb/s1379/Solar%20Manufacturers.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="414" data-original-width="1379" height="120" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnaO2GuQnQJvq44elts9btPK0lxqbS1mHr5aEJ1o0WfggpSoIpfx5WyZvIY2CyS7En0jAIL3gYw8onn77hiVT8sIr-EcOaZSf5fNo8CCLA0bK5rKzdufu79NK7dQ_sA5aN-hpzLaQ2PoslBIafxarnQOfRB4r9qc3E5MFPSj-XhrFxX2dtXjmIvhtb/w400-h120/Solar%20Manufacturers.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Solar Manufacturers & Related Companies in the Industry. Source: Yahoo Finance</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>For the smaller caps within this solar industry, though I always preferred them, it just didn’t make sense. After which, I looked for companies making battery packs and storage, or even lithium mining companies. It was the same. Either on an uptrend or just too expensive.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgmQ18GGOLMNXcJzM93oBKkEl6eUUVoaIrT7ZhdfBlunSn9kQ_lvhSe1VuQrtLTUn4nkbSYc7wKaTx7KPBYSf2K8NoKmybUV8W91krxBKAqsDlcD-LPqbhTUR2pmDe8_XSz7WEvxtF9BUHnVgFkBpwBhNXNmKxFroMgqQNx1xd-xrMRM820_TgZHyt/s752/Battery%20Packs.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="243" data-original-width="752" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgmQ18GGOLMNXcJzM93oBKkEl6eUUVoaIrT7ZhdfBlunSn9kQ_lvhSe1VuQrtLTUn4nkbSYc7wKaTx7KPBYSf2K8NoKmybUV8W91krxBKAqsDlcD-LPqbhTUR2pmDe8_XSz7WEvxtF9BUHnVgFkBpwBhNXNmKxFroMgqQNx1xd-xrMRM820_TgZHyt/w400-h129/Battery%20Packs.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Companies Making Products Supporting Solar Industry. Source: Yahoo Finance</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>I may sound like there is a lot of excuses. But do note that when I was considering these companies, I had limited resources and an almost full portfolio. If I wanted to add another company, it had to be overall great—not expensive, profitable, in growth mode, and not leveraged.</p><p>Then I remembered <b>Tesla</b> has the Megapack Battery as well. Then coincidentally, Tesla announced a <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/09/tesla-to-open-a-new-megafactory-in-shanghai-china-company-says.html" target="_blank">second factory</a> located in Shanghai to manufacture the Megapack battery. It was definitely no coincidence that the second factory was in China, one of the biggest solar manufacturing countries in the world.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhFzvvdnkTJNrTqcOh7boZ_7wTx1Beo_Q4_iyilhCVEO2UbVqTLlnSpf7aOa_PdGxiHY8agc5yjjaTilvAiGig59Nu_IM66FwVS1S-v2E692w5W6THQKRsZdLDRNL7BH_tH5nIWZMpBHFHh69b__D4im_9x6RnEGMzLzPqhkbpAEcRq-a0rv4JohK4/s1620/106889619-1622153694989-Megapack-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1620" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhFzvvdnkTJNrTqcOh7boZ_7wTx1Beo_Q4_iyilhCVEO2UbVqTLlnSpf7aOa_PdGxiHY8agc5yjjaTilvAiGig59Nu_IM66FwVS1S-v2E692w5W6THQKRsZdLDRNL7BH_tH5nIWZMpBHFHh69b__D4im_9x6RnEGMzLzPqhkbpAEcRq-a0rv4JohK4/s320/106889619-1622153694989-Megapack-2.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Tesla Megapack Battery. Source: CNBC</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>After that I had a conversation with a Tesla bull who explained that the Tesla Megapack is different from the cars. The production is quite fast and gets shipped out very quickly. And, even the new factory doesn't take years to build.</p><p>Being an existing shareholder in Tesla, that was when <b>I decided I wanted a bigger position in Tesla.</b></p><p><i>Realise I had never written on Tesla before.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned for the next TUB Assert. </i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-55678323424000764192023-05-03T23:53:00.003+08:002023-05-03T23:53:30.351+08:00TUB Path To 100% - May 2023<p>It has been some time since I last posted here, but rest assured that I have not been idle. For those who have been following my social media, you are likely aware that I recently authored a few articles on Seeking Alpha <i>(Shared within this post)</i>. If you haven't already, I invite you to follow me on my <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/author/tub-investing" target="_blank">Seeking Alpha profile</a>.</p><p>Moving forward, my focus will be primarily on writing for Seeking Alpha, as it presents a fantastic opportunity for me to aim for the highest possible return in the shortest amount of time. However, I do plan to keep TUBInvesting alive and active. After all, it is where I began <i>my journey</i>.</p><p>Going forward, I will be publishing 2 articles on TUBInvesting each month as part of two new series.</p><p>The first series will be a monthly update, <b>TUB Path To 100%.</b> It will document my journey towards recovering back to portfolio of 100%.</p><p>The second series, <b>TUB Assert</b>, will feature special write-ups on companies, industries, or views that I find particularly compelling.</p><p>As always, these articles will be shared on my <a href="https://twitter.com/InvestingTub" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://t.me/+QYWWUoyzODQ5NmJl" target="_blank">Telegram Group</a>, <a href="https://www.facebook.com/TUBInvesting" target="_blank">Facebook page</a>, and <a href="https://www.investingnote.com/users/tubinvesting#/all" target="_blank">Investing Note profile</a>. <i>Be sure to follow me on these platforms for regular updates.</i></p><p><i>Back to the first post of the new series, TUB Path To 100%...</i></p><p>In the interest of transparency, I must confess that due to the market downturn and my focus on small-cap investments, many of my holdings over the past two years have suffered significant losses. In fact, some have plummeted by as much as 80% or 90%, leaving me with only 40% of my original portfolio. I had touched ob this issue in my previous post, <i>"<a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/03/my-restart-portfolio-updates-and.html" target="_blank">My Restart: Portfolio Updates and Investment Strategies.</a>"</i></p><p>That being said, I am eager to document my journey as I work towards not only recovering my losses, but also exceeding 100%. It's worth noting that my strategies, views, and macro environment have shifted since my last write-up, and as a result, my portfolio has undergone some changes as well.</p><p>Without further ado, here are my current 16 holdings, ranked by target position size:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>APPS</li><li>RICK</li><li>SMTC</li><li>TSLA</li><li>PLTR</li><li>Hock Lian Seng <i>(SGX: J2T)</i></li><li>MOV </li><li>GOOG</li><li>Keppel Infrastructure Trust <i>(SGX: A7RU)</i></li><li>TDCX <i>- New</i></li><li>LQDT <i>- New</i></li><li>ValueMax Group Ltd <i>(SGX: T6I)</i></li><li>HUT</li><li>REI</li><li>EPM <i>- New</i></li><li>FUBO - <i>Options Only</i></li></ol><p></p><p>As compared to the <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/03/my-restart-portfolio-updates-and.html" target="_blank">last update</a>, my cash positions currently still stand at 21%, and I have increased my Singapore listed positions from 1 to 3, with the remaining companies listed in the US. APPS remains my largest holding, comprising approximately 25% of my portfolio. Notably, big tech firms now represent only a small percentage of my holdings, with TSLA and GOOG being the only two.</p><p>I also made the decision to sell my holdings in MSFT and CMLS. With regards to MSFT, I had only held a small number of shares and decided to sell them after the stock price increased significantly. As for CMLS, I had miscalculated the impact of interest expense on the company and did not anticipate the losses they would incur in their upcoming earnings report. As a result, I made the decision to sell my position in CMLS.</p><p>I would also like to share my recent portfolio additions with you. In addition to Singapore-listed companies, I have also added the following:</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>TDCX: This is a digital customer experience solutions provider based in Singapore that caters to innovative technology and blue-chip companies. <i>Wait for the article!</i></li><li>LQDT: I have written a detailed article about this company on Seeking Alpha titled "<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4594645-liquidity-services-lqdt-compelling-investment-despite-macro-risks" target="_blank">Liquidity Services: A Compelling Investment Despite Macro Risks</a>".</li><li>EPM: This is an oil and gas exploration and production company that pays a dividend of over 7%. <i>Wait for the article!</i></li></ul><p></p><p>Finally, I would like to bring to your attention two additional articles that I have recently published and may be of interest to you.</p><p>The first article, titled "<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4593777-movado-group-an-undervalued-investment-opportunity-amid-market-challenges" target="_blank">Movado Group: An Undervalued Investment Opportunity Amid Market Challenges</a>", is about another vested position of mine in MOV.</p><p>In the second article, I take a short position view on VVI and discuss the <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4596710-risks-and-uncertainties-undermine-viads-promising-progress" target="_blank">risks and uncertainties</a> that I believe undermine the company's promising progress. This marks my first-ever article on a short position, and I am thrilled to share my perspective with my audience.</p><p>Thus concludes this month's update for The TUB Path To 100%.</p><p><i>Stay tuned for TUB Assert.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-60954957648636836952023-04-19T08:30:00.004+08:002023-04-19T08:30:00.143+08:00Can Jay Chou Save GHY Culture and Media in FY2023?<p>If you are an investor interested in the media industry, you should consider GHY Culture and Media (SGX: XJB), which produces numerous dramas and films in countries like China, Singapore, and Malaysia. GHY's content is also featured on major video streaming platforms and TV networks in China. Additionally, the group has organized concerts for international artists in Singapore, Malaysia, and Australia.</p><p>GHY's business comprises three main segments:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>TV Program and Film Production</li><li>Costumes, Props, and Make-up Services and Talent Management Services</li><li>Concert Production</li></ol><p></p><p>The most profitable and revenue-generating segment in 2022 was concert production. The company co-produced concerts for Power Station and Guns N' Roses in Singapore, and organized Jay Chou's Carnival World Tour (Singapore) concerts at the Singapore National Stadium on December 17 and 18, 2022. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpgC97aMELnUyCOWIrjgIHvOogpu4WShxRJOmn0xA-22Cx5bHeq2Gmo7EGTBPm6L5Z8GmhF5BKF8MN_v8mMEG8F-Mxjnkw617-2RcT1n8tAYMx9FXPh4asjcpF7RZ901VqxnZrImgWZ8WAcPVgbQxUXA5SlwXOixnkSDhKVXS-N3KARszhtRB5b183/s919/jay-msia.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="919" data-original-width="650" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpgC97aMELnUyCOWIrjgIHvOogpu4WShxRJOmn0xA-22Cx5bHeq2Gmo7EGTBPm6L5Z8GmhF5BKF8MN_v8mMEG8F-Mxjnkw617-2RcT1n8tAYMx9FXPh4asjcpF7RZ901VqxnZrImgWZ8WAcPVgbQxUXA5SlwXOixnkSDhKVXS-N3KARszhtRB5b183/s320/jay-msia.jpg" width="226" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Jay's Concert Poster. Source: GHY Website</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>These events alone brought in S$20 million in revenue and over S$8 million in gross profit, accounting for over 40% of GHY's total revenue in 2022.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8qqzxD_6Cz0UPn1nu0-M_W41RY685WuAMuh1ZWni8EWf0X4nQK3J5s-pRyRFpF0q-yj9iPd0GuVy9nmKy63Tfh9GE4HyviiDnN6IrG8Yma4q6jd_uFN9HVVb1_0jySX7dXdhN7EK1WFMBU0PDm2LA5uWFw9x0UeiAIV5gxFUZKucztv2L1Py1B0I/s752/GHY%20FY2022%20Results.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="752" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ8qqzxD_6Cz0UPn1nu0-M_W41RY685WuAMuh1ZWni8EWf0X4nQK3J5s-pRyRFpF0q-yj9iPd0GuVy9nmKy63Tfh9GE4HyviiDnN6IrG8Yma4q6jd_uFN9HVVb1_0jySX7dXdhN7EK1WFMBU0PDm2LA5uWFw9x0UeiAIV5gxFUZKucztv2L1Py1B0I/s320/GHY%20FY2022%20Results.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: GHY FY2022 Annual Report</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Among Power Station, Guns N' Roses, and Jay Chou, it's likely that Jay Chou's sold-out concert in Singapore contributed the most to GHY's success in 2022. In 2023, the company is expected to recognize revenue from Jay Chou's concerts in Malaysia and Australia. </p><p><i>(Interestingly, Jay's mother and manager has a 7.1% ownership in GHY....)</i></p><p>Apart from concerts, GHY has also profited from producing dramas. In a <a href="https://researchwise.dbsvresearch.com/ResearchManager/DownloadResearch.aspx?E=hejdfkhfj" target="_blank">DBS Report</a>, it was projected that the company would release 3 to 4 dramas in 2023, potentially boosting its revenue and profitability profile. In 2021, drama production was the key driver of GHY's profitability.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0p4zif5Edk-EpBiro_Mwp8LCqwydyYhJ6eW6nZdF1NZkFn8wtzHNXFHAiQJuxsXsZvp8kdP9y9E13-LkczS9BHKGOBt5Y5gJPdw-c6OVO7Vawovu9wVqA1f775C2l1OcMj_gDGAjf0X_eQFFkRTcYGMJQ1TWl_ieBxR7PbTJNvQji2QFQZ-k-_f2g/s752/GHY%20FY2021%20Results.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="535" data-original-width="752" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj0p4zif5Edk-EpBiro_Mwp8LCqwydyYhJ6eW6nZdF1NZkFn8wtzHNXFHAiQJuxsXsZvp8kdP9y9E13-LkczS9BHKGOBt5Y5gJPdw-c6OVO7Vawovu9wVqA1f775C2l1OcMj_gDGAjf0X_eQFFkRTcYGMJQ1TWl_ieBxR7PbTJNvQji2QFQZ-k-_f2g/s320/GHY%20FY2021%20Results.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: GHY FY2022 Annual Report</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Recently, GHY <a href="https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/ghy-culture-singapore-iskandar-studios-malaysia-johor-3400866" target="_blank">acquired</a> Iskandar Malaysia Studios, a facility that played a role in producing the reality TV series "Asia's Got Talent" and the hit Hollywood film "Crazy Rich Asians." This acquisition could further enhance GHY's position in the media and entertainment industry, making it an attractive investment opportunity!</p><p><i>Not Vested Yet.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-73378621572443255042023-04-09T18:33:00.001+08:002023-04-09T18:33:14.246+08:00Scammers Co-Opted My Alter Ego<p>It appears that scammers everywhere are exploiting my alternative persona to defraud individuals. Occasionally I elect to disregard them. However, the email below goes too far. It is literally contacting my partners and demanding that they forward this email to me.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglkjhvLFa8kXvgrtvYvdRkEcyXP7aMh6nmD1NVVrmMIkGch2VqtWyzNhgc9MLQfb8naF1piFQFqlJxAtKNkPO6BF971s_XJFTmHBbjDsNrumbNqw5E93YlkcEVknLCIyZW7WWf8Xj2LQRvZ8RXBoDcwaQ3RXegrLcuRq5pltJ3b66IOm_quPLK2CfY/s1280/photo_2023-04-09_17-48-05.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="557" data-original-width="1280" height="174" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglkjhvLFa8kXvgrtvYvdRkEcyXP7aMh6nmD1NVVrmMIkGch2VqtWyzNhgc9MLQfb8naF1piFQFqlJxAtKNkPO6BF971s_XJFTmHBbjDsNrumbNqw5E93YlkcEVknLCIyZW7WWf8Xj2LQRvZ8RXBoDcwaQ3RXegrLcuRq5pltJ3b66IOm_quPLK2CfY/w400-h174/photo_2023-04-09_17-48-05.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">The S*** Email To My Partners</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>This seems to be another one of the scams.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCJIcOGMQUdayDu4sOvkKYcdq4UwwShUx0yZMyEuw4X_6jfRgUblROklmMP7uoChcMEpzN_ZRXdQ9aYgozbBWF0y-u6o8fvjqP-svS6eNBIorJwv8ZhZ6bV8k2JfiCo8FZjiGTGWioZLItFVYbqNPy6NT12lmO15VhsDAc5DVU-QO4_OcCiV6VBowE/s1163/How%202.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="668" data-original-width="1163" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjCJIcOGMQUdayDu4sOvkKYcdq4UwwShUx0yZMyEuw4X_6jfRgUblROklmMP7uoChcMEpzN_ZRXdQ9aYgozbBWF0y-u6o8fvjqP-svS6eNBIorJwv8ZhZ6bV8k2JfiCo8FZjiGTGWioZLItFVYbqNPy6NT12lmO15VhsDAc5DVU-QO4_OcCiV6VBowE/s320/How%202.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">S*** website</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2Yrh4gJ7Kcj3DLkfC6BqH-MQkKT4ErRSiD5290bdi23hMkiAdPnU1KNneLomBRcPW7xKlvJTccNizUMhHWsv7AVVyCu6AvrzEMoQSjW9dWuyygy59XN4uAvL6I-z-i7aIYCHZzssTtVnfz2gZq1tsyPtnaoMtuw4VbgYYem8fjTx6gcKcp8JQlg4j/s906/How%206.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="906" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2Yrh4gJ7Kcj3DLkfC6BqH-MQkKT4ErRSiD5290bdi23hMkiAdPnU1KNneLomBRcPW7xKlvJTccNizUMhHWsv7AVVyCu6AvrzEMoQSjW9dWuyygy59XN4uAvL6I-z-i7aIYCHZzssTtVnfz2gZq1tsyPtnaoMtuw4VbgYYem8fjTx6gcKcp8JQlg4j/s320/How%206.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Press Release on the S*** Website</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Moreover, when searching for "TUBInvesting" through Google, I previously discovered peculiar material relating to this blog. I recognize I have become a premier news source.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhACgPSlQ4H06kGOz9_fayxg4JyrP6_12MXFs9Bp-qojHlw-JY-LD1adyPpQ-38cOxGLMgnf209M-iGUlliWgta1GyRXI1xob_nPTukfkjZMUDo2XZkiX5nPP4o2nKUdXMGjrPZG6mbCYMdbKPgLE97mbbg7yXj7uRl56uc0d6Fl54Tg7DJlLWUyd6B/s762/How%203.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="762" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhACgPSlQ4H06kGOz9_fayxg4JyrP6_12MXFs9Bp-qojHlw-JY-LD1adyPpQ-38cOxGLMgnf209M-iGUlliWgta1GyRXI1xob_nPTukfkjZMUDo2XZkiX5nPP4o2nKUdXMGjrPZG6mbCYMdbKPgLE97mbbg7yXj7uRl56uc0d6Fl54Tg7DJlLWUyd6B/s320/How%203.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">News Article 1</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8qSe38cqodKA3y5Pt8ygacZwjozw5lYNz5fZp2tIo82OwROSjSFWIJQohYKJiGdQSTE5dWHR18gm_idza7RxS9Fk6uN6LvlJJkRnp5L5vEV-sUqYcfk28bD9TaZhWoKDULGRgmcqSGbwNR1pgScLK4OodUNS1f7kacqpq3bgNbzgQNB9T5zMzfb5f/s1163/How%204.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="584" data-original-width="1163" height="161" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8qSe38cqodKA3y5Pt8ygacZwjozw5lYNz5fZp2tIo82OwROSjSFWIJQohYKJiGdQSTE5dWHR18gm_idza7RxS9Fk6uN6LvlJJkRnp5L5vEV-sUqYcfk28bD9TaZhWoKDULGRgmcqSGbwNR1pgScLK4OodUNS1f7kacqpq3bgNbzgQNB9T5zMzfb5f/s320/How%204.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">News Article 2</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEike59u_utIyojTeBggWaJ5aTlK46tRAXXtQKRwdg7a_2NAZV0SnZBlckd1LskYWoYirzYzJmUx201dmiW2pcWaF58enQVvc4jNgK9QDNTAb-NsYHT7T8MUnLXmwI3TmUiO7N6lMbc9R9UOaZK1YeOEW4WiUXJQO2eVn4IbCr3DG7rshI8Zmz6d7gao/s782/How%205.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="718" data-original-width="782" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEike59u_utIyojTeBggWaJ5aTlK46tRAXXtQKRwdg7a_2NAZV0SnZBlckd1LskYWoYirzYzJmUx201dmiW2pcWaF58enQVvc4jNgK9QDNTAb-NsYHT7T8MUnLXmwI3TmUiO7N6lMbc9R9UOaZK1YeOEW4WiUXJQO2eVn4IbCr3DG7rshI8Zmz6d7gao/s320/How%205.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">News Article 3</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The news reports originated from one of my affiliations tab beneath "Latest News" with PRNewswire.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Presumably I shall retract them promptly.</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjegohGgt2iQuPhLmlr88PnN5x3wcNrzLaloVspNuycaq0a8ld28lIrGFMZ5rFOqbFVdnmBFJjV5cYaoMjMo6p4pKmIXeKX1w9p8JfhZ8hmuNRmM7Glrg4DVPE7tsXpi0evgCnW-lVCKMiWGHkt2Ps8nDcuGrvLaVcXerZoMBb2Xg3wVUAugtM1p8fT/s951/News%20Outlet.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="696" data-original-width="951" height="234" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjegohGgt2iQuPhLmlr88PnN5x3wcNrzLaloVspNuycaq0a8ld28lIrGFMZ5rFOqbFVdnmBFJjV5cYaoMjMo6p4pKmIXeKX1w9p8JfhZ8hmuNRmM7Glrg4DVPE7tsXpi0evgCnW-lVCKMiWGHkt2Ps8nDcuGrvLaVcXerZoMBb2Xg3wVUAugtM1p8fT/s320/News%20Outlet.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Screenshot of the Blog Tab</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />Please be careful. If you need to contact me, there is a <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/p/contact-tu.html" target="_blank">link</a> on my blog on how to locate me.<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i>Stay Tuned.</i></div>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-61144731585639040052023-04-02T15:28:00.000+08:002023-04-02T15:28:47.059+08:00The Arbitrage Opportunity on Movado Group (MOV) Stock<p>Typically, I avoid discussing strategies involving options due to the significant losses that can occur if the market moves against you. However, when the opportunity has a shallow risk profile, and the potential reward seems attractive, it warrants consideration. The current situation with Movado Group <i>(MOV)</i> is an arbitrage opportunity for investors.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4Zzrj9qU242tdoWFZ_axXPeMiRedefglHD5UsbQFHeJ0BM4mzug7GcfRQ86_CGIqRSksJwKQa1VJnw41f_8Z1Z1RLdAV5hL9-QYD-e8CpD_Pn3Pvi7oPmVU71YplCnIyd-AmYxGTEBTtIi9daLoutGA13RC3bmCTmYUfWN7Vl_lXFddtNOd_W_k9C/s1280/movadoss22-11-x.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="454" data-original-width="1280" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4Zzrj9qU242tdoWFZ_axXPeMiRedefglHD5UsbQFHeJ0BM4mzug7GcfRQ86_CGIqRSksJwKQa1VJnw41f_8Z1Z1RLdAV5hL9-QYD-e8CpD_Pn3Pvi7oPmVU71YplCnIyd-AmYxGTEBTtIi9daLoutGA13RC3bmCTmYUfWN7Vl_lXFddtNOd_W_k9C/w400-h143/movadoss22-11-x.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: The Watch Specialist Website</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>MOV recently announced in-line earnings and declared a special dividend of $1 per share, along with its regular quarterly dividend of $0.35. The ex-dividend date is April 4, 2023, and the dividend payment date will be April 19, 2023. Usually, such an announcement would lead to a rise in the share price. However, Movado's lackluster guidance for the next quarter caused a 15% drop in its share price, presenting an intriguing entry point.</p><p>As an illiquid small-cap stock, MOV's average daily volume is only 163,000 shares over the past year, less than the 500,000 share threshold for active trading. However, despite the typically wide bid-ask spreads, its options chain still facilitates options trading. The option premium plus strike price closely matches the underlying share price, enabling this strategy.</p><p>By purchasing MOV shares before the ex-date and selling call options against the position, investors can realize the dividends while generating income and minimizing capital exposure for ~3 weeks. Specifically:</p><p></p><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Buy 100 MOV shares at the current market price.</li><li>Sell one call option at a lower strike than the current price, expiring April 21, 2023, against the 100 MOV shares.</li></ol><p></p><p>Exercising the call option will zero out the MOV position, likely resulting in a slight gain or loss. However, purchasing before the ex-date will qualify you to receive the dividend per share, which will be at least US$0.90 per share or ~3% at the current $28 share price.</p><p>A shallow risk profile does not mean this strategy has no risk. The primary risk is that MOV's share price could drop substantially below the strike price. However, as an illiquid stock, the downside is limited. Investors can also mitigate risk by selling call options with a lower strike price to ensure the options will exercise even if the share price drops significantly. Selling lower-strike call options also generates higher premiums upfront, providing more capital to work with.</p><p>In summary, this strategy allows you to take advantage of a low-risk arbitrage opportunity in the options market while benefiting from the special and regular dividends MOV offers. Combining these factors creates a compelling short-term investment opportunity that can yield favorable returns with minimal risk.</p><p><i>I will be writing more about MOV.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-31062044583841974482023-03-31T08:30:00.001+08:002023-03-31T08:30:00.156+08:00Take Your Portfolio From The Sewers To Cybertron With IDW<p><i>Although returning to write on the Seeking Alpha platform presented a challenge, I was able to gather the motivation to share my thoughts on a micro-cap company. But the article was still rejected due to the limited liquidity of the stock.</i></p><p><i>Rejection does not equate to failure; rather, it provides a chance to refine and create better content. Even though Seeking Alpha didn't publish my article, I've decided to share it here instead. Thank you for taking the time to read my work.</i></p><p><b>The Company </b></p><p>IDW Media Holdings <i>(<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/IDW" target="_blank">IDW</a>)</i> is a leading American publishing company specializing in comic books, graphic novels, and trade paperbacks. Founded in 1999, IDW has built a reputation for producing high-quality, innovative content that appeals to a wide audience. With a focus on licensed properties and original titles, IDW has a portfolio of beloved brands that have captured the imaginations of readers around the world. These include the new Netflix hit Locke & Key, the ever-popular classic Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles and more "fringe" pieces such as 30 Days of Night and The Crow.</p><p><b>Rewards</b></p><p><i>Locke-ing In On A Megatrend</i></p><p>There is a massive shift towards digital streaming services, which has been accelerated by the ongoing streaming war. With the increasing popularity of streaming services like Netflix <i>(NFLX)</i>, Disney+ <i>(DIS)</i>, and Amazon Prime Video <i>(AMZN)</i>, traditional cable TV has been declining in popularity. This trend has been further accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, as more people have been staying at home and seeking entertainment options. As a result, there is now a high demand for quality content that can be streamed online, and companies that own valuable intellectual property <i>(IP)</i> are well-positioned to benefit. As the creators of many classic and upcoming hits, such as Netflix's "Locke and Key", IDW has sealed its place as a reputable IP hard-hitter in a baseball stadium full of deep-pocketed streaming service executives. </p><p><i>Standalone Stories</i></p><p>One advantage that IDW's publishing arm has over larger companies such as Marvel is that it tends to focus more on creating standalone comics and graphic novels, rather than building out a large, interconnected universe. Larger franchises such as Marvel are famous for their sprawling, interconnected universe of characters and stories, with dozens of ongoing series that tie into each other and contribute to a larger overall narrative. While this approach has been incredibly successful, it can also be intimidating for new readers who may feel like they need to have an encyclopedic knowledge of the entire comic universe in order to enjoy a particular series or storyline.</p><p>IDW, on the other hand, tends to focus more on creating standalone stories that don't require any prior knowledge of the characters or setting. For example, IDW has published successful series based on properties like Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, Ghostbusters, and My Little Pony, but these series are largely self-contained and don't require readers to be familiar with the larger continuity of the franchise.</p><p>This approach can make IDW comics more accessible and appealing to new readers, who may be put off by the daunting prospect of diving into a complex interconnected universe. It also allows IDW to take risks and try out new concepts and storylines without having to worry as much about how they will fit into an established continuity. In the context of a streaming war, this equips IDW with the ability to come up with a new weapon that potentially could take over and lead them to victory.</p><p><i>Flywheel Strategy</i></p><p>Unlike their pizza-loving fictional turtle counterparts, IDW is not resting on its laurels. According to a recent Sep 2022 Media Investor Presentation by the company, IDW is implementing a flywheel strategy that will iteratively create and fund new hits. Combined with its unique ability to experiment, this strategy could help IDW capitalise on the law of large numbers to create a few profitable hits that will erase their almost guaranteed, more frequent flops. </p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwBzC-ByL3W0mxhUwhDklSfpoOnDvOxfSoT5MUSn6RZL4FlDGali1GI2LrelgXdLiy4Lb7VW6_pslYqrMgXXHyQ-oycFyPsp6LET4lxLpkfX9H8J5HOk1RRxFmQ4C49R7n2r8Ct3JzpTEiaFIwueSTLEBNSeROToTwTVrGYxo9LauY-Qj6kGHWyvf6/s1161/IDW%20Flywheel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="645" data-original-width="1161" height="178" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwBzC-ByL3W0mxhUwhDklSfpoOnDvOxfSoT5MUSn6RZL4FlDGali1GI2LrelgXdLiy4Lb7VW6_pslYqrMgXXHyQ-oycFyPsp6LET4lxLpkfX9H8J5HOk1RRxFmQ4C49R7n2r8Ct3JzpTEiaFIwueSTLEBNSeROToTwTVrGYxo9LauY-Qj6kGHWyvf6/s320/IDW%20Flywheel.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: IDW Presentation</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />While the flywheel strategy is new, it seems to have been met with tailwinds. The company recently <a href="https://deadline.com/2022/08/idw-five-series-development-graphic-novels-comics-1235087796/" target="_blank">announced</a> that five of its stories have been optioned by streaming services, with an <a href="https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/idw-comics-tv-development-satellite-falling-1235444577/" target="_blank">additional</a> six stories in development. This indicates that there is a growing interest in IDW's IP and its potential for future revenue generation. To add to that, its previous IPs have been adapted into successful movies and TV shows,. For example, the popular Netflix series "Locke & Key" is based on a comic book series published by IDW, and the show has been renewed for a second and third season. <div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq1YujfdSMtF23Y13Vx3iVAQGNT0-4afTd4nGyDKoGFjDMzf9dQWnyRovT9vnXFuz7DZ9NS7mE-xr-SPuOnFiAsZAwUPRpQCaxoYk474vFTsIv4uMHHbfuYF8FYoMrFoXDBjG127FmINmOCZ8T8kSud5FqyBxLQs9Zz4tp7kz4bT5b0ltcfFVTIfEq/s752/IDW%20Past%20TV%20Streaming%20Works.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="412" data-original-width="752" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhq1YujfdSMtF23Y13Vx3iVAQGNT0-4afTd4nGyDKoGFjDMzf9dQWnyRovT9vnXFuz7DZ9NS7mE-xr-SPuOnFiAsZAwUPRpQCaxoYk474vFTsIv4uMHHbfuYF8FYoMrFoXDBjG127FmINmOCZ8T8kSud5FqyBxLQs9Zz4tp7kz4bT5b0ltcfFVTIfEq/s320/IDW%20Past%20TV%20Streaming%20Works.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: small;">Source: IDW Presentation</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><div><b>Risks</b></div><div><br /></div><div><i>Management Change</i></div><div><br /></div><div>However, investors should consider the risks associated with IDW. In December 2021, the company announced that its CEO, <a href="https://medium.com/authority-magazine/ezra-rosensaft-of-idw-5-things-i-wish-someone-told-me-before-i-became-a-ceo-636dce248070" target="_blank">Ezra Rosensaft</a>, was stepping down and would be replaced by Allan Grafman, who served as a member of IDW's board and chairman of its audit committee since 2019 andis the founder and CEO of media consulting firm All Media Ventures.</div><div><br /></div><div>While Rosensaft had only been in the role for a little over a year, his departure was unexpected and could potentially impact the company's future strategy and execution. It remains to be seen how the change in leadership will affect the company's direction and plans for growth.</div><div><br /></div><div><i>Popularity of New IP</i></div><div><br /></div><div>Another risk for IDW is the uncertainty around its spending on creating new IP. While the company's strategy of creating and selling IP fits well with the current market trend, the cost of creating new content can be significant if the investment does not take off. This is especially true given the competitive landscape of the entertainment industry, where many companies are vying for attention and investment. One prominent example is <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/quibi-to-shut-down-after-just-6-months.html" target="_blank">Quibi</a>, a mobile-only streaming service that launched in April 2020 with a focus on short-form content. Quibi invested heavily in creating original content, with plans to release over 175 original shows in its first year. However, despite attracting high-profile talent and significant investment, the platform failed to gain traction with viewers, and the company announced in October 2020 that it would be shutting down. </div><div><br /></div><div><i>Losing of Licensed Deals</i></div><div><br /></div><div>Furthermore, IDW tend to push its writing for licensed franchises into more controversial topics, such as exploring characters from marginalized communities, including characters who are Black, LGBTQ+, and disabled. This was <a href="https://boundingintocomics.com/2022/01/22/after-heavily-investing-in-woke-identity-politics-idw-loses-transformers-and-g-i-joe-licenses/#:~:text=After%20seventeen%20years%20and%20a,%3A%20Transformers%3A%20Beast%20Wars%20Vol" target="_blank">highlighted</a> in an article as they will lose the Transformers and GI Joe licenses at the end of 2022. If becoming a voice for the edgier styles and topics in society is part of IDW's corporate strategy, I fear that this could backfire and make it a lightning rod — attracting creators that seek to toe the line dangerously close when it comes to topics that are naturally divisive. In another example, one of IDW's key writers was also <a href="https://www.cbr.com/idw-cancels-gi-joe-series-early-controversy/" target="_blank">exposed</a> for calling September 11 mourners " Self-Centered National Tragedy Remembrance from People Who Weren't Even Anywhere Near New York City Day". </div><div><br /></div><div>While it's important for companies to take a stance on important social issues, it's also important to consider the potential impact on their business and stakeholders. What we want is a strong brand that brings in predictable profits, and not a company that supports unhinged content masked in the guise of artistic freedom. </div><div><br /></div><div><b>Financials</b></div><div><br /></div><div>As of its most recent 10K filing for 2022, IDW had a strong balance sheet with no debt and $10 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand.</div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkOGTR3A2v-Xxs2GLY_DV-RcmyhaRRV9m3lPMZ9R9H3sQnNvz_bbX2sw3PQOoz8E4F85Yv9L0KT1sBHl6NlFoK8GQb7SkXMErWK9dQVuuNqB_r55z50KJTREDx2hLyI8pimHqrKrkK3Ax6bRkt5hvb8ow2U_FXjTU85ybcryghZ8xGSvVhJ8EqNFd-/s752/IDW%20Balance%20Sheet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="752" height="252" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkOGTR3A2v-Xxs2GLY_DV-RcmyhaRRV9m3lPMZ9R9H3sQnNvz_bbX2sw3PQOoz8E4F85Yv9L0KT1sBHl6NlFoK8GQb7SkXMErWK9dQVuuNqB_r55z50KJTREDx2hLyI8pimHqrKrkK3Ax6bRkt5hvb8ow2U_FXjTU85ybcryghZ8xGSvVhJ8EqNFd-/s320/IDW%20Balance%20Sheet.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: IDW 10k</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><div>This provides the company with financial stability and flexibility and makes it less likely to face bankruptcy or default on its debt obligations in the current high interest rate environment.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, as per its income statement, the company's operating costs are high and that has caused IDW to run into slight losses of $748k in 2022. </div></div><div><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbuuJhIYUjpqJHs0CIgT0fJDsWqjtJVwRzIzZOxH8atdEQyUbmwTCj8UzhbUD7R_RtbkgPojfXx8xJYZFMU-z1ajasE4BcZgNs6JQDdogyKLDo9OoxPqmDv0L3DZZFhD360uHTv2YYJKsjxntFLbX2tqbSDJFKXd8O6m63eSpKZsX5UR73Bq5ahm05/s752/IDW%20Income%20Statement.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="427" data-original-width="752" height="182" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjbuuJhIYUjpqJHs0CIgT0fJDsWqjtJVwRzIzZOxH8atdEQyUbmwTCj8UzhbUD7R_RtbkgPojfXx8xJYZFMU-z1ajasE4BcZgNs6JQDdogyKLDo9OoxPqmDv0L3DZZFhD360uHTv2YYJKsjxntFLbX2tqbSDJFKXd8O6m63eSpKZsX5UR73Bq5ahm05/s320/IDW%20Income%20Statement.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: IDW 10k</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div><div>Even if we included the non-recurring SG&A of $700k that is stated in its latest transcript, and the removal of depreciation and amortization, IDW will barely be profitable at $294k. Please do note that this is the case even after recognising a revenue of $4.8 million for the delivery of Season 3 of Locke & Key in the 4th quarter of 2022.</div><div><b><br /></b></div><div><b>Valuation</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Investors should be aware that the company in question is currently operating at a loss. Hence, it is more appropriate to use the "cigar butt approach" by evaluating the company using its book value, as calculated by its balance sheet. With a market cap $14.55 million, as per 19 Feb 2023, I believe that IDW is relatively undervalued using this method. In addition, the net current asset value is $1.36, which presents a 30% upside when compared against its share price of $1.03.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, investors should also be aware that there is a risk associated with this method of valuation. Specifically, it relies on the company's liquidation value, which is what the company's assets would be worth if it were to be liquidated. In reality, the value realized in a liquidation scenario is often less than the company's book value, as assets may be sold at "fire sale" prices. Therefore, investing in this company based on its book value only serves as a form of protection against potential future losses or further weakening of the company. Investors should carefully consider these factors before deciding whether or not to invest in this company.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>Ending Remarks</b></div><div><br /></div><div>Overall, IDW presents a high risk/high reward opportunity for investors. The company's focus on creating and selling IP fits well with the current market trend, and its recent success in adapting its IP into options for movie and TV shows demonstrates the value of its strategy. On the other hand, the strategy will be based on the execution from a new CEO and that remains uncertain. Nevertheless, its strong balance sheet provided some protection against poor execution since the net current asset value remains 30% above the current share price. </div></div><p><i>This was written by Ram and TUB.</i></p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p></div>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-22945834308897854402023-03-29T08:37:00.000+08:002023-03-29T08:37:27.989+08:00Navigating the Current Financial Market: Implications for Investors<p>As we enter the second quarter of 2023, many investors may be confused about the current situation in the financial market. Inflation is on the rise, the Fed is continuing with its interest rate hikes as well as quantitative tightening, and banks are also facing liquidity and balance sheet issues. In this blog post, I will break down these factors and their implications for investors.</p><p>Firstly, it is essential to note that while these factors may seem worrying, the risk of a recession remains low. Even if one were to occur, my opinion is that it would be a short-term V-shaped recovery. This conclusion is based on my observation that many investors and institutions had kept their funds on the sidelines due to the continuous interest rate hike. As a result, the Fed's reserve repo agreements have increased to over $2 trillion. This means that once interest rates decrease, investors/institutions will reverse their actions and start investing more aggressively <i>(Previously mentioned in <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2022/11/what-is-happening-in-market.html" target="_blank">this</a> and <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/01/fed-reverse-repo-again.html" target="_blank">this</a> blog post).</i></p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF37zUPco3zuPJ7aN3RS-Bg-bjQ49epm9YDME75udGZSCzOaF8yWw_qK1L_YsUdUDkVAHLA3CvlYWN6sAnDWJmXP9NUl3hOe4OHvhqiOg14ZcdEgeidboyoWdRBH50cSoDoJabkLn1hFsfN1KG6ifLyDosLbM18FBkUnrXRA6M5VtiwlaSiFBu_wY2/s1318/fredgraph.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="1318" height="136" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjF37zUPco3zuPJ7aN3RS-Bg-bjQ49epm9YDME75udGZSCzOaF8yWw_qK1L_YsUdUDkVAHLA3CvlYWN6sAnDWJmXP9NUl3hOe4OHvhqiOg14ZcdEgeidboyoWdRBH50cSoDoJabkLn1hFsfN1KG6ifLyDosLbM18FBkUnrXRA6M5VtiwlaSiFBu_wY2/w400-h136/fredgraph.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (as of 27 Mar 2023) - USD 2,220.131 bn</span></td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>However, for the Fed to reduce interest rates, a recession has to occur. A preemptive action to a recession has already started, with banks requiring government assistance to boost their liquidity and support their current balance sheets. Fed has also stepped in by offering the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/23/banks-ramp-up-use-of-new-fed-facility-created-in-crisis.html" target="_blank">Bank Term Funding Program</a>, increasing its balance sheet by allowing banks to pledge their bonds or mortgage-based securities to the Fed, which will provide the liquidity they need in return.</p><p>It is essential to note that the current ballooning of the Fed's balance sheet is not quantitative easing in 2020, where funds went directly to people. Instead, this is more like quantitative easing in 2008, where funds go to corporates/institutions through banks. </p><p>Banks will do credit analysis on the applications and only lend to those with lower credit risk. Since not everyone will received the funds and only the better quality corporates/institutions will received these funds, these funds will be used for a much better purpose - resulting in a potential higher return on the usage of the funds for the future.</p><p>To summarize, I perceive the current expansion of the Fed's balance sheet as a measure to counteract the adverse impacts it has already inflicted on the economy. At the same time, it could potentially stabilize the economy and even kickstart a bullish trend. Therefore, I will continue to standby my view that risk of recession remains low, and may even be lower with this new Bank Term Funding program.</p><p>Finally, as investors, it is crucial to understand that the current situation is not all doom and gloom. The market will eventually rebound, and investors need to keep a level head and not make hasty decisions based on the current situation. The economy is constantly evolving, and we must adapt to the changes to make informed investment decisions.</p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1609074421438585217.post-4460030640836877342023-03-27T21:17:00.004+08:002023-03-27T21:17:48.830+08:00My Restart: Portfolio Updates and Investment Strategies<p>It has been a while since I last updated my portfolio on this blog, with the last <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2022/09/portfolio-and-life-updates.html" target="_blank">update</a> being in September 2022. </p><p>Firstly, I had a change in strategy with my editor, Ram, which took away some of my time. Additionally, my family requires more of my attention, especially my daughter who is turning 4, and my work in a startup never ends, leaving me with low energy levels by the end of the day. Unfortunately, this meant that I had to put a hold on uploading videos to my <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@t.u.binvesting4675/" target="_blank">YouTube channel</a> for now.</p><p>I also wanted to explain 2 events that have occurred in my investing journey this year. </p><p>At the start of 2023, I sold all my stocks, not due to the market environment but solely to change my broker. This event took about 10 days and resulted in an opportunity cost of at least 10k due to missing out on gains. Despite this, I took the time to review my remaining investments, which accounted for only 40% of my initial investments. </p><p>As a result, I developed a <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2023/01/my-current-roadmap-to-choosing-companies.html" target="_blank">new roadmap</a> for selecting companies, which includes a calculator. However, I have yet to share the calculator because I cannot find a good free source of data to automate the process. Nevertheless, I do consider companies with positive <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/2022/12/free-cash-flow-is-going-to-cost-you.html" target="_blank">FCF-SCB</a> and some margin of safety from its DCF valuation.</p><p>Moving on to my current portfolio, here are the top 13 companies, ranked according to the target size of the position:</p><p>1. APPS</p><p>2. SMTC</p><p>3. RICK</p><p>4. PLTR</p><p>5. TSLA</p><p>6. CMLS</p><p>7. <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Hock%20Lian%20Seng" target="_blank">Hock Lian Seng (SGX: J2T)</a></p><p>8. MOV</p><p>9. MSFT</p><p>10. GOOG</p><p>11. HUT</p><p>12. REI</p><p>13. FUBO</p><p>Currently my cash positions remain at 23%, and all the companies are listed in US, except for 1 in Singapore.</p><p>Based on my target sizing for each position, the top 5 companies will contribute around 65.8% of the entire portfolio, with <a href="https://www.tubinvesting.com/search/label/Digital%20Turbine" target="_blank">APPS <i>(Digital Turbine)</i></a> contributing approximately 24.5%. Big tech firms will also contribute 16%. The lower-ranking companies are my moonshots. It is important to note that the companies that passed my calculator, as stated under my current roadmap, are APPS, SMTC, RICK, CMLS, and MOV as of today.</p><p>My main theme still seems to be mainly small-cap along with some growth. I am also using selling of options as a method to get more cash. Right now, I am also considering purchasing long-dated call options. </p><p>In summary, this is my portfolio and my current strategy.</p><p><i>Stay Tuned.</i></p>The Unique Bunch (T.U.B)http://www.blogger.com/profile/18291160695754244321noreply@blogger.com2