Monday, January 29, 2018

This Is My Rant!

I have been prompted by some of my friends, that there are more and more competition within the subscription website space.

Before you continue, let me emphasize that I am not belittling any other website or methods. If you are offended by my post, I like to apologize first. And you have been warned...

But I am wondering if this happens because of the bull run? Will all the methods stand the test of time? How will a method turn out during a bear market? If a subscriber fully understand how a particular method works? If you do not understand, then are you doing it right?

Having been in this industry for some time now, I realise that retail investors are impatient and always tend to go for the fastest method.

Picture taken from www.safalniveshak.com

A method that can promised returns within a very short time frame is the method they will go for. Thus, this made many investors go for Technical Analysis (aka TA) methods. Fundamental Analysis (aka FA) methods, like those within Fundamental Scorecard website, are not appreciated currently.

FA methods tend to look at a much longer time frame. In a bull market, it lacks traction.

There is also another factor that I believe why FA subscription website lacks traction. FA investors will already have their own method that allows them to make gains, why will they be interested in paying to learn another method? That will be extra cost!

So for friends who continued to ask: "Why do I continue to waste time and effort on the Fundamental Scorecard website?"

I can only say I still believe in my method, and when the bears arrive, I believe my method will prevail. This could take some time but so be it.

Picture from Wall Street Journal
As stated on Fundamental Scorecard website, Simple Investor and I believe in giving the average retail investors an edge in the current market. That is why we try to price our subscriptions on the lower end of the tier. We even had friends who were asking: "What do you earn from this? Comparing to this other website, you have to have at least 50 subscribers to their 1 subscriber!"

In addition, we also believe that subscribers will truly benefit from these subscriptions only if they understand the basis of a particular method. That is why we are prompt in replying emails and also we STILL believe in conducting Ask-Us-Anything Sessions SO FAR, regardless of the turnout.


Simple Investor and I are only sharing these methods because we, as investors, use this method and had made our gains over time.

Lastly, there is this 1 factor that I do not like to watch - that is when people start to make losses, such as the recent Bitconnect event (Do note that I am not against cryptocurrency, but there are those that are more established. Right?).

Sometimes, I understand retirees have some cash and like to invest them, but do not know where to start. I also understand they may not want to wait too long. Then again, if you already have a large amount, you can always choose to invest in REITs. Why take such huge risk?

Oh... and there is another group that are the newbies. I just have to tell you, if you go to a barber and ask if you need a hair cut, they will definitely say yes! But do note that you always have the choice to continue to ask more about the hair cut, such as the length and the price.

From AZ Quotes
Basically, do not blindly follow a method. Find out more before investing your time in one. Choose one that suit you as well.

Anyway enough ranting. Thank you for reading!

If you are interested to know more about The Ultimate Scorecard or Full Analysis, do visit the Fundamental Scorecard website for more information! 

Oh... and do remember, please like our Facebook page (T.U.B Investing) and follow me on InvestingNote.

6 comments:

  1. has your method been tested in a bear market? if so, how did it do?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anonymous,

      I have only been investing in the last 10 years and to be frank, I have not used it in a real bear market.

      But I did use it in 2015, 2016 and 2017. And if you look through my scorecard method, it has went through improvements over the last 3 years.

      Over the 3 years, I think 2016 was the more special year. As many companies reported poorer financials, a lot of counters failed the scorecard. This actually reduced the counters to looked at and those that passed had preserve into 2017 and make great gains.

      Anyway what I hope to say is, if I believe in a method and when a bear comes along, you will be more composed when the noises started crowding around.

      Hope this explains.

      Regards,
      TUB

      Delete
  2. So what gives you the conviction that this long only portfolio will survive a bear market?

    Frankly speaking, many market participants today (including myself) have not experienced a true bear market such as '08. I manage a value portfolio myself and as much as I believe in my method, I have no idea how i would react to a market panic. Or whether I will have the right temperament to stay discipline with my methods.

    In a bear market, how do you differentiate 'market noise' and macro fundamental drivers that will eventually impact businesses? If you are quantitatively picking stocks, how would you know that its fundamentals are deteriorating?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Anonymous,

      It’s true my method did not experience true bear market in 2008 and I will not know if it will truly works when it comes. But I did graduate in 2008/2009 and saw how bad the economy is.

      I may not be able to convince you that I do have a high level of conviction that my method can help me choose good companies to invest in.

      Firstly, I do not invest in marco drivers and focus on individual companies instead. With that, I already took away quite a lot of noises.

      2ndly, my method allows me to select strong companies now that has the possibility of surviving a downturn. That is all included in my method.

      So in that way, I believe a good company will be able to survive through the bear market and emerge stronger.

      This can be seem in how strong balance sheet based companies such as PEC and Nordic becomes the surviving and one of the strongest parties during this oil and gas downturn.

      In my method, there is also a pass and fail score. If a company fail or drop a lot of points, then it will highlight to me to have a second look. Maybe you can take a look at my fundamental scorecard website or my writeup on the scorecard method in this blog to understand better.

      Not sure if this answer your questions, but if you do have more questions, maybe it is better you can write to me and you can come for our next AUA session to ask us more about our method, I maybe better explaining to you in person.

      Regards,
      TUB

      Delete
  3. Any method has to be verified over at least one full market cycle of bull-bear-bull or bear-bull-bear

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi CreateWealth8888,

      First time hearing from you. Thank you for reading and commenting.

      Hmmm... But will back testing be taken into account? Because to experience such a long period, will take many years.

      Regards
      TUB

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